2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[AutoPenalti]

12Z Euro with a strong signal for more waves to develop coming off of Africa. It remains to be seen what the steering pattern will be, but we will certainly have a lot to watch in the 2nd half of September.

https://i.imgur.com/RsUr6Ol.gif

Did the Euro just loop-de-loop a TW back to Africa???

[Ubuntwo]

12Z Euro with a strong signal for more waves to develop coming off of Africa. It remains to be seen what the steering pattern will be, but we will certainly have a lot to watch in the 2nd half of September.

https://i.imgur.com/RsUr6Ol.gif

Did the Euro just loop-de-loop a TW back to Africa???

Based on vorticity analysis, that's two separate waves

[Europa non è lontana]

Some signals from the 12z global models that could indicate the possibility of some subtropical or tropical development in the western Mediterranean over the next 3 to 5 days. SSTs in the region are currently between 23 and 26 degrees and shear is low enough to theoretically support development.

[IcyTundra]

There is chance we could have 3 new named storms by early next week. There is some model support that INVEST 91L could spin up just off shore of Florida briefly becoming a weak TS. Then you have the AEW coming off of Africa this Saturday that has good support from the Euro, EPS, CMC, and GEPS. We could also get something spin up in the BOC early next week as the GFS has suggested in some runs along with decent support from the GEFS. That would put us at Peter with half of September left.

[StormPyrate]

There is chance we could have 3 new named storms by early next week. There is some model support that INVEST 91L could spin up just off shore of Florida briefly becoming a weak TS. Then you have the AEW coming off of Africa this Saturday that has good support from the Euro, EPS, CMC, and GEPS. We could also get something spin up in the BOC early next week as the GFS has suggested in some runs along with decent support from the GEFS. That would put us at Peter with half of September left.

you could also see a big nothing burger, it literally could go either way.

[IcyTundra]

There is chance we could have 3 new named storms by early next week. There is some model support that INVEST 91L could spin up just off shore of Florida briefly becoming a weak TS. Then you have the AEW coming off of Africa this Saturday that has good support from the Euro, EPS, CMC, and GEPS. We could also get something spin up in the BOC early next week as the GFS has suggested in some runs along with decent support from the GEFS. That would put us at Peter with half of September left.

you could also see a big nothing burger, it literally could go either way.

I'm fairly confident about the wave coming off of Africa this weekend developing, but for the other two you are right that they very well may not develop.

[Wampadawg]

If something develops next week in the western gulf for the Houston area it would be close to when Beta came through last year.Not much of a storm but we got a foot of rain in my area

[Spacecoast]

NASA @ 120 Hrs: Shows 91L and AEW wave

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS isn’t killing off the wave coming off Saturday as quickly but may have to watch to see if in later runs it doesn’t kill it at all

[aspen]

The operational GFS and its ensembles are very bearish about any activity in the 10-12 day time frame. The EPS, by contrast, develops the 0/20 AOI and has two waves with potential for development by September 19th.

We should probably disregard the GFS because not only is it showing the same abnormal Niño-like shear as the CFS, but it just had a massive failure with Super Typhoon Chanthu. Just a few days ago, it had nothing coming from it, but in the last 24 hours it went pinhole and became a 140-150 kt Cat 5. Somehow, the GFS missed this becoming even a typhoon mere days in advance — a failure comparable to the Euro last year. Clearly it’s not doing very good with TCG.

[Category5Kaiju]

The operational GFS and its ensembles are very bearish about any activity in the 10-12 day time frame. The EPS, by contrast, develops the 0/20 AOI and has two waves with potential for development by September 19th.

We should probably disregard the GFS because not only is it showing the same abnormal Niño-like shear as the CFS, but it just had a massive failure with Super Typhoon Chanthu. Just a few days ago, it had nothing coming from it, but in the last 24 hours it went pinhole and became a 140-150 kt Cat 5. Somehow, the GFS missed this becoming even a typhoon mere days in advance — a failure comparable to the Euro last year. Clearly it’s not doing very good with TCG.

The most recent GFS run is very bearish about activity after Chanthu in the WPAC, with the only TC worth noting is one that literally goes over Japan. It is also very bearish after EPAC activity after Olaf, and of course bearish about Atlantic activity. To be frank, I think the EPS is more believable than the GFS at this point; clearly, the GFS seems to think that activity will be slow in ALL THREE of the major NH basins throughout this month, and that's pretty bizarre to say the least and very unlikely going to pan out.

[gatorcane]

Fall-like progressive pattern parade of troughs continue on the 12Z GFS for the foreseeable future:

[SFLcane]

The gfs can’t keep a closed circulation with any of these waves even if it’s life depended on it.

[Stormybajan]

The gfs can’t keep a closed circulation with any of these waves even if it’s life depended on it.

They seem to hold up better on the cmc..but obviously you cant trust cmc over the gfs but maybe the gfs will come around in about 3 days I bet
Cmc shows a low rider weak storm at Day 10 heading to the winwards..lets see if it sticks

[Category5Kaiju]

The gfs can’t keep a closed circulation with any of these waves even if it’s life depended on it.

It's almost like as if the GFS just does not want to show closed circulation activity in the Atlantic...I mean, it shows a pretty inactive EPAC as well. I'm pretty sure there is something that is definitely off with the GFS

[Wampadawg]

Did the latest GFS just put the Houston area underwater

[Cpv17]

Did the latest GFS just put the Houston area underwater

Yes.

[hurricaneCW]

Fall-like progressive pattern parade of troughs continue on the 12Z GFS for the foreseeable future:

https://i.postimg.cc/DyCbyVBT/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh0-228.gif

Huh?

Starting next weekend there's a broad ridge forming over the CONUS. Very little trough activity on ensembles.

[IcyTundra]

EPS, GEFS, and GEPS actually suggest there will be stronger ridging later on in September

[Wampadawg]

EPS, GEFS, and GEPS actually suggest there will be stronger ridging later on in September

https://i.imgur.com/XrpeaBx.gif

https://i.imgur.com/T9fpytM.gif

https://i.imgur.com/J2QEfCe.gif

Ok I am really a novice so please hang with me does the above show a track open to the Texas coast for a good period or am I reading this wrong.I appreciate the teaching.