2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Spacecoast]

NASA seems to have the best SAL Forecast tool.
Here are the next 5 days:

Could put a damper on convection.

[toad strangler]

NASA seems to have the best SAL Forecast tool.
Here are the next 5 days:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/QPzZjLt/Animation.gif [/url]
Could put a damper on convection.

Stick a fork in the rest of September if SAL is actually a player

[IcyTundra]

I think we could see an increase in activity during the last third of September but overall I expect the next 2 weeks to be fairly quiet with any storms that do form being fairly weak. Towards the end of the month we should also be in a more favorable MJO phase so that should help some too. Also have to watch out for waves that struggle in the MDR due to dry air and wind shear but are able to find more favorable conditions in the Carribean and become a threat to landmasses. I'll enjoy this lull with no threats to land but I am fully expecting things to pick up towards the end of the month and into October.

[Shell Mound]

I think we could see an increase in activity during the last third of September but overall I expect the next 2 weeks to be fairly quiet with any storms that do form being fairly weak. Towards the end of the month we should also be in a more favorable MJO phase so that should help some too. Also have to watch out for waves that struggle in the MDR due to dry air and wind shear but are able to find more favorable conditions in the Carribean and become a threat to landmasses. I'll enjoy this lull with no threats to land but I am fully expecting things to pick up towards the end of the month and into October.

So you're staying that there will be no more CV threats to the CONUS in 2021?

Maybe the crow will not be served to some of the bears here.

[Shell Mound]

NASA seems to have the best SAL Forecast tool.
Here are the next 5 days:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/QPzZjLt/Animation.gif [/url]
Could put a damper on convection.

So can we admit that the MDR is underperforming relative to expectations for a second consecutive year?

[AlphaToOmega]

There was an SAL outbreak last month. We got Hurricane Ida that month. Do not write off a season because of SAL. This is not even an outbreak.
P.S. I want to remind you all of September 2010, a month with a lot of SAL during September. Despite the SAL outbreak, it managed to produce 8 storms.
Be patient, folks! September is most likely going to be very active still

[AlphaToOmega]

I think we could see an increase in activity during the last third of September but overall I expect the next 2 weeks to be fairly quiet with any storms that do form being fairly weak. Towards the end of the month we should also be in a more favorable MJO phase so that should help some too. Also have to watch out for waves that struggle in the MDR due to dry air and wind shear but are able to find more favorable conditions in the Carribean and become a threat to landmasses. I'll enjoy this lull with no threats to land but I am fully expecting things to pick up towards the end of the month and into October.

So you're staying that there will be no more CV threats to the CONUS in 2021?

Maybe the crow will not be served to some of the bears here.

The latest CMC run shows a Cape Verde storm moving due west in the MDR. That could be a threat to the CONUS.

[Category5Kaiju]

Idk, I have not heard any notable mets on Twitter (Andy, Philippe, Jack, Phil, those folks) really recently tweet about how SAL is a big detriment to this season’s September. It’s important to understand that SAL outbreaks can still happen in September, and I just have not heard any major indications on wx Twitter and other media that it is very heavy or capable of squashing a season . It does not seem like the SAL outbreak we are seeing now is extremely anomalous or as bad as the outbreaks during the summertime.

[tolakram]

NASA seems to have the best SAL Forecast tool.
Here are the next 5 days:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/QPzZjLt/Animation.gif [/url]
Could put a damper on convection.

So can we admit that the MDR is underperforming relative to expectations for a second consecutive year?

No, because I never expected more than a storm or two, and Larry fit my expectation. I'm still scratching my head about the mythical heavy MDR seasons of days past. I also disagree that any of the predictors of a slow season so far have had any merit, nothing they predicted has come to pass. This is why I was mentioning verification earlier in the season. It's one thing to predict a fast or slow month / season, it's quite another to predict why. Why is all that counts. Larry was huge, IS huge. You predicted small storms because of poor background conditions and that didn't verify, at least for our only MDR storm.

SAL in September is rare and Africa is not showing above normal activity anymore.



This puts at least a pause in activity on the table, at least for the eastern half of the basin. What this means for overall activity once said and done is still anyone's guess IMO, but I'm sure that guessing will continue.

[NDG]

Something many of us already knew, the CFS is junk.
Its high shear forecast for the Caribbean during September should be tossed out the window.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1435559664977125376



 https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1435561238461878274

[aspen]

SAL? In September? After a record wet Africa that even surpassed 2020? What on Earth is going on?

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1435546097074720770




So it looks like there's now some chatter that the season is about to become very slow due to SAL in September and an unfavorable MJO phase. Like I have said, I personally am not sure just how anomalous the SAL is because I have not seen a slew of Tweets on it from the credible and notable mets and scientists on wx Twitter recently, and I would have to imagine that if we were indeed truly seeing anomalous SAL during September, then many of these folks would be talking about it extensively in their feeds. Therefore, I personally think some individuals are putting way too much emphasis on the idea that this SAL layer is something completely strange and out of the ordinary (as SAL can still occasionally be spit out in September, just not as rampantly as June or July). However, take a look at the CCKW progression Danny Morris has put out. There is mention that the Atlantic could wake up again later this month and have activity last into October. Also, note that the African standing wave is still relatively there throughout this time period. This imho is a trademark of what we could see in a La Nina, with a potential for an active second half of September and October. I also would like to emphasize that there is also seemingly a prevailing attitude that this season is underperforming as September 10 is not expected to have multiple simultaneous storms in the basin; however, September 10 is just a date. An average. If anything, storms like Maria, Opal, Lorenzo, Georges, Rita, and Gloria remind us that powerful second-half September storms are not that uncommon, and as a result just because we are seeing activity after September 15 does not mean we can automatically assume that that activity will necessarily be tame. Oh yeah, and October (as seen with Mitch, Wilma, and Michael) is also a month that should not be laughed at.

[aspen]

Mid-late October could be nasty with a Kelvin Wave moving into a Nina-favored western Atlantic.

It’s not all bears for September, as the Euro ensembles and other models suggest there are 3 waves in the next 10-12 days with chances to develop. However, this really doesn’t feel like September; it still seems like mid-late August when we’ve gotten a big storm (in this situation, Larry) but are still waiting for the switch to be flipped as we enter the peak of the season. Climo Peak Day is Friday, and it feels like the switch was turned on for 2-3 weeks but has been switched off already.

[Category5Kaiju]

Mid-late October could be nasty with a Kelvin Wave moving into a Nina-favored western Atlantic.

It’s not all bears for September, as the Euro ensembles and other models suggest there are 3 waves in the next 10-12 days with chances to develop. However, this really doesn’t feel like September; it still seems like mid-late August when we’ve gotten a big storm (in this situation, Larry) but are still waiting for the switch to be flipped as we enter the peak of the season. Climo Peak Day is Friday, and it feels like the switch was turned on for 2-3 weeks but has been switched off already.

I mean, all active seasons have lulls at some point during the ASO timeframe, so this I suppose is 2021's first real lull since the July-August lull. However, do I expect it to last? No, because this season has already been performing very well with nearly 70 ACE already, and it's very hard to imagine a sudden shutdown in September during a La Nina year. Remember, 70 ACE, and it's only September 8. Not to mention we are already on our 12th NS, and I definitely expect the second half of this month to jump into action once again. Something tells me that by the second half of this month, all of us hurricane trackers will look back to all this talk of SAL or a potentially inactive September during the first half of the month and laugh.

[Teban54]

There was an SAL outbreak last month. We got Hurricane Ida that month. Do not write off a season because of SAL. This is not even an outbreak.
P.S. I want to remind you all of September 2010, a month with a lot of SAL during September. Despite the SAL outbreak, it managed to produce 8 storms.
Be patient, folks! September is most likely going to be very active still

Does anyone have a SAL map for 2010? I have a hard time believing SAL was plaguing the Atlantic during peak season when four Cat 4 CV storms developed.

[toad strangler]

NASA seems to have the best SAL Forecast tool.
Here are the next 5 days:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/QPzZjLt/Animation.gif [/url]
Could put a damper on convection.

So can we admit that the MDR is underperforming relative to expectations for a second consecutive year?

The MDR has never been a pezz dispenser. How you come to these conclusions way, way, WAY before the correct time has been allowed to transpire is quite honestly mind numbing.

[Ubuntwo]

There was an SAL outbreak last month. We got Hurricane Ida that month. Do not write off a season because of SAL. This is not even an outbreak.
P.S. I want to remind you all of September 2010, a month with a lot of SAL during September. Despite the SAL outbreak, it managed to produce 8 storms.
Be patient, folks! September is most likely going to be very active still

Currently models are showing pretty stable conditions across the basin for much of September. We could see this ease up by the end of the month, but a hyperactive “8+ storm” September like you portend is quite unlikely.
Also, Ida was not a MDR storm.

[CyclonicFury]

We literally just had a major hurricane in the MDR, something not every year has. People set their expectations way too high for the MDR. Seasons like 2004 or 2017 with multiple MDR origin major hurricanes headed for the CONUS are the exception, not the norm.

[Ubuntwo]

Mid-late October could be nasty with a Kelvin Wave moving into a Nina-favored western Atlantic.

It’s not all bears for September, as the Euro ensembles and other models suggest there are 3 waves in the next 10-12 days with chances to develop. However, this really doesn’t feel like September; it still seems like mid-late August when we’ve gotten a big storm (in this situation, Larry) but are still waiting for the switch to be flipped as we enter the peak of the season. Climo Peak Day is Friday, and it feels like the switch was turned on for 2-3 weeks but has been switched off already.

Seasons almost always follow cyclic patterns of activity w/ the MJO and CCKWs. We had a two week period with 3 major hurricanes including a high end cat 4 landfall on the CONUS and a long track annular ACE producer. To see that kind of activity continue without pause is extremely rare. For some seasons, peak activity lines up better with August or October than September.

[gatorcane]

We literally just had a major hurricane in the MDR, something not every year has. People set their expectations way too high for the MDR. Seasons like 2004 or 2017 with multiple MDR origin major hurricanes headed for the CONUS are the exception, not the norm.

Years like 2004 and 2017 always seem to come up in this thread during pre-season chatter but completely agree with you. It is just that those years were high impact MDR years which we remember but nearly every other year is forgettable so not easily remembered. We may not see something like those years again for a long time.