ATL: MINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TallyTracker]

There is some evidence that there is a circulation at the surface, but much of it is inferred from radar data rather than a direct observation. Forecaster Papin mentions this in the discussion when he said, “These Doppler-radar winds have been increasing over the past couple of hours as the center moves closer to the radar and I am reasonably confident this circulation is now surface based.”

It’s not an exact science when it comes to classification. I’m just not sure in my opinion I would have called it a TS without direct surface observations of some sort confirming the closed circulation. It’s close enough and the results are the same either way.

[supercane4867]

The most impressive feature of Tropical Thunderstorm Mindy is the giant outflow boundary marching SE

[Ubuntwo]

42039 down to 1006.6 mb

[AlphaToOmega]

This is why Mindy was upgraded. The NHC always knows what it is talking about

The ASCAT-C Ambiguities at that time also hinted that a very small
closed circulation was trying to develop along the edge of these
stronger winds. Since that time, a well-defined circulation become
evident on KEVX Doppler-radar with inbound velocities occasionally
nearing 40-45 kt to the southeast of the radar center. These
Doppler-radar winds have been increasing over the past couple of
hours as the center moves closer to the radar and I am reasonably
confident this circulation is now surface based. Just in the last
hour or so, NOAA buoy 42039 reported a peak 1-minute sustained wind
of 35 kt just southeast of the center, confirming the system now has
tropical storm force winds.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Dean4Storms]

It's a very small circulation, but it's there and the pressure drops back that up.

[ElectricStorm]

NHC has more data than we do and they don't usually upgrade unless they have the data to justify it, so they must have seen something there that shows a surface circulation. Definitely a borderline case, but they usually make the right call, so I'm going with they made the right call here as well.

Looks awful, but a TS is a TS.

[tropicwatch]

42039 down to 1006.6 mb
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/885279682646380544/E-yy_0lWQAELz6F.png

And winds WSW at 33kts gusts to 46.

[NDG]

That buoy indeed shows TS Force conditions.
Great job by the GFS being persistent in it becoming a TS this afternoon, I never should had doubt it

[Ubuntwo]

...NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT MINDY IS A LITTLE STRONGER...

Recent data from NOAA buoy 42036 indicates that the maximum
sustained winds in Mindy are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts.


SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 86.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1435720102071123968




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1435721285850513410

[aspen]

Oh, hello Mindy. Jeez that went from nothing to something quite fast.

[Kohlecane]

Already getting some of this extra energy fueling some heavy downpours here in Beaufort

[Dean4Storms]

...NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT MINDY IS A LITTLE STRONGER...

Recent data from NOAA buoy 42036 indicates that the maximum
sustained winds in Mindy are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts.


SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 86.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

They have the wrong buoy, it is 42039 with those winds.

[jaxfladude]

It got named?? Thought at best just a TD but now a TS?

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Hammy]

Wow, what a waste of a name. Even Claudette was more impressive than this. NHC are the pros, but I’m slowly shifting to the idea that classification criteria is become a bit overly generous as time goes by.

There is no such thing as a wasted name. If it has a circulation (visible on both satellite and radar), and has tropical storm force winds (confirmed by buoy), it is a tropical storm.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks legit on radar. No reason to doubt the NHC, there’s no rule that it has to be an impressive looking storm. A weak TS rarely looks great

[AJC3]

Photo mosaic from buoy 42039 at 4:10 PM...



5:10 PM

[tolakram]

Evidence the NHC has once again done their job is increasing. This only increases the pressure on crow futures.

Just ignore the banding, probably just a coincidence.