2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[IcyTundra]

EPS, GEFS, and GEPS actually suggest there will be stronger ridging later on in September

https://i.imgur.com/XrpeaBx.gif

https://i.imgur.com/T9fpytM.gif

https://i.imgur.com/J2QEfCe.gif

Ok I am really a novice so please hang with me does the above show a track open to the Texas coast for a good period or am I reading this wrong.I appreciate the teaching.

The maps I posted show the anomalies of high and low pressure across the Atlantic basin. The red on the map indicates that there is higher pressure than usual in that area and the blue on the map indicates that there is lower pressure than usual in that area. The GFS, Euro, and CMC ensembles (the models I posted) suggest that we could see stronger high pressure than usual across the Atlantic which means that anything that forms in the Atlantic would have a higher chance of getting further west closer to landmasses as the strong high pressure blocks any tropical cyclones from gaining much latitude. Right now the only thing I can see that could bring impacts to Texas anytime soon is some tropical moisture in the Bay of Campeche early next week that could increase rain chances across the Texas coast next week. Nothing suggests it will be anything major but I would expect rain chances to be decently high all across the Texas coast next week.

[Wampadawg]

EPS, GEFS, and GEPS actually suggest there will be stronger ridging later on in September

https://i.imgur.com/XrpeaBx.gif

https://i.imgur.com/T9fpytM.gif

https://i.imgur.com/J2QEfCe.gif

Thanks makes sense

Ok I am really a novice so please hang with me does the above show a track open to the Texas coast for a good period or am I reading this wrong.I appreciate the teaching.

The maps I posted show the anomalies of high and low pressure across the Atlantic basin. The red on the map indicates that there is higher pressure than usual in that area and the blue on the map indicates that there is lower pressure than usual in that area. The GFS, Euro, and CMC ensembles (the models I posted) suggest that we could see stronger high pressure than usual across the Atlantic which means that anything that forms in the Atlantic would have a higher chance of getting further west closer to landmasses as the strong high pressure blocks any tropical cyclones from gaining much latitude. Right now the only thing I can see that could bring impacts to Texas anytime soon is some tropical moisture in the Bay of Campeche early next week that could increase rain chances across the Texas coast next week. Nothing suggests it will be anything major but I would expect rain chances to be decently high all across the Texas coast next week.

[sma10]

Not sure if this is just a false signal, but starting early next week it might be worth watching the area around 20-25N, 65-70W.

It looks like the 18z GFS moves three disturbances through that area from around 9/14-9/22.

[Category5Kaiju]

Most recent GEPS is very bullish about activity in the Atlantic; in fact, counting the number of unique noticeable vorticity clusters, I found there to be at least 4, which would take us all the way to Sam by the end of the run theoretically. Will it happen? We'll have to wait and see, but having an active second half of this month would not shock me in the slightest bit.

[Europa non è lontana]

Various global models continue to indicate the possibility of tropical or subtropical development in the Mediterranean in the short term. The 00z UKMet develops a disturbance northeast of Menorca, which travels across Sardinia and the southern Italian Peninsula before emerging in the Ionian Sea. The 00z CMC is in broad agreement with the UKMet, as is the 00z ICON. The HIRLAM has a stronger and more southerly track, but its output should be taken with a grain of salt as it is not a global model and not designed for TCs. Sea surface temperatures are in excess of 26C in the Tyrrhenian and Ionian seas.

[SFLcane]

Growing support from GEFS and now EPS has come on board for a wave making it across.

[kevin]

Suddenly a lot of activity in the latest Euro ensemble. Besides Larry and Mindy at least 6 areas with a significant chance of development can be seen in the ensemble within the next 10 days. I added the rough formation time as well as percentages based on the number of systems showing at least a TD (100% would be 52 ensemble members). There are even strong signals (25+ members) for 2 MDR waves resulting in a TC beyond the 150 hr range, something which I've rarely seen in the euro in recent times. Looks like September may not be that quiet after all. I specifically refrained from using any of the possible future storm names in the image as was mentioned in one of these threads last week if I recall correctly.

[AlphaToOmega]

Suddenly a lot of activity in the latest Euro ensemble. Besides Larry and Mindy at least 6 areas with a significant chance of development can be seen in the ensemble within the next 10 days. I added the rough formation time as well as percentages based on the number of systems showing at least a TD (100% would be 52 ensemble members). There are even strong signals (25+ members) for 2 MDR waves resulting in a TC beyond the 150 hr range, something which I've rarely seen in the euro in recent times. Looks like September may not be that quiet after all. I specifically refrained from using any of the possible future storm names in the image as was mentioned in one of these threads last week if I recall correctly.

https://i.imgur.com/FEQxXEN.png

People are going to sell their bears after they see this

[aspen]

The 06z GFS develops the September 18th wave (the system at the end of the Euro and EPS runs), although it quickly dissipates. Better than normal though.

There’s also some consistency of a sleeper wave spawning a TC in the Bahamas in about a week or so.

[Category5Kaiju]

Suddenly a lot of activity in the latest Euro ensemble. Besides Larry and Mindy at least 6 areas with a significant chance of development can be seen in the ensemble within the next 10 days. I added the rough formation time as well as percentages based on the number of systems showing at least a TD (100% would be 52 ensemble members). There are even strong signals (25+ members) for 2 MDR waves resulting in a TC beyond the 150 hr range, something which I've rarely seen in the euro in recent times. Looks like September may not be that quiet after all. I specifically refrained from using any of the possible future storm names in the image as was mentioned in one of these threads last week if I recall correctly.

https://i.imgur.com/FEQxXEN.png

That 180-200 hr, 50% AOI has a very concerning track to say the least. Westward toward the Lesser Antilles.

[Stormybajan]

Suddenly a lot of activity in the latest Euro ensemble. Besides Larry and Mindy at least 6 areas with a significant chance of development can be seen in the ensemble within the next 10 days. I added the rough formation time as well as percentages based on the number of systems showing at least a TD (100% would be 52 ensemble members). There are even strong signals (25+ members) for 2 MDR waves resulting in a TC beyond the 150 hr range, something which I've rarely seen in the euro in recent times. Looks like September may not be that quiet after all. I specifically refrained from using any of the possible future storm names in the image as was mentioned in one of these threads last week if I recall correctly.

https://i.imgur.com/FEQxXEN.png

That 180-200 hr, 50% AOI has a very concerning track to say the least. Westward toward the Lesser Antilles.

The signal is also there on the cmc so its definitely something to keep track of over the coming week

['CaneFreak]

Yep. It is the wave that is getting sheared near 10N 40W right now. I just posted about it in the Tropical Waves thread. This one is definitely worth a watch for the Southeast CONUS.

https://imgur.com/a/Rlbnkr0

There’s also some consistency of a sleeper wave spawning a TC in the Bahamas in about a week or so.

[kevin]

Looks like GFS saw the Euro and was like, 'well now I gotta join in as well'. This is looking more like what you'd expect at peak season compared to the previous ensembles. The only thing missing on the GFS checklist is a random +384 hour run showing a MH landfall in Florida and then disappearing in the next run .

[SconnieCane]

Looks like GFS saw the Euro and was like, 'well now I gotta join in as well'. This is looking more like what you'd expect at peak season compared to the previous ensembles. The only thing missing on the GFS checklist is a random +384 hour run showing a MH landfall in Florida and then disappearing in the next run .

https://i.imgur.com/mlJJvLN.png

Appears there's an Ivan-like track in there which splits the Yucatan Channel as a potentially strong system and then weakens slightly before making U.S. landfall near the AL/MS line (or perhaps that is the one that comes straight from the south near Central America, hard to tell).

[kevin]

Looks like GFS saw the Euro and was like, 'well now I gotta join in as well'. This is looking more like what you'd expect at peak season compared to the previous ensembles. The only thing missing on the GFS checklist is a random +384 hour run showing a MH landfall in Florida and then disappearing in the next run .

https://i.imgur.com/mlJJvLN.png

Appears there's an Ivan-like track in there which splits the Yucatan Channel as a potentially strong system and then weakens slightly before making U.S. landfall near the AL/MS line (or perhaps that is the one that comes straight from the south near Central America, hard to tell).

It's the one coming straight from the south near CA, vaguely similar to Michael in terms of track just a bit further west (and weaker of course).

Edit: actually really similar to the 1916 Gulfcoast hurricane.

[Spacecoast]

0z NASA / GMAO next 240 Hrs:

Mindy crosses FL Panhandle into N ATL
African AEW heads WNW, then W
Some activity South of FL day 6?

[gatorcane]

What’s that on the 12Z GFS 168-246 hour?

[LarryWx]

What’s that on the 12Z GFS 168-246 hour?

https://i.postimg.cc/nchBrkmb/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh168-246.gif

Gator, I know what it is not. This is not the wave that is in the TWO that is about to leave Africa that there is a thread for. That wave is recurving much further out in the ocean (never gets past 60W) as a wave as of this time. This one here is loosely originating from something now in the east Atlantic.

[Spacecoast]

What’s that on the 12Z GFS 168-246 hour?

Seems to be same activity that 0Z NASA depicts (above), although It shows it riding the west coast
0Z Euro shows vorticity over Fl @ 192 hr
12z CMC shows it as well @162 hr

[cheezyWXguy]

Oh man, 12z gfs… Good thing it’s a long ways out, but that is more like what I would expect to see in mid September