2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[toad strangler]

12z GFS with home grown mischief in the Bahamas LATE in the run.

[IcyTundra]

The GFS and GEFS are finally coming to life and are suggesting that the 2nd half of September will be very busy.

[aspen]

What’s that on the 12Z GFS 168-246 hour?

https://i.postimg.cc/nchBrkmb/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh168-246.gif

It’s a wave currently in the central Atlantic and mentioned in the 2021 waves thread. Previous GFS runs have brought it into the Bahamas at this time, but flung it out to sea; this run seems to trap it under weak steering currents, allowing it to become a hurricane.

[SFLcane]

What a pattern change coming! Not even going to post the gfs.

['CaneFreak]

Yeah do yourself a favor and don't look. Bad pattern. Bad pattern. I don't like the looks of it.

What a pattern change coming! Not even going to post the gfs.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS with home grown mischief in the Bahamas LATE in the run.

Is energy by wave now at 45W.

[Europa non è lontana]

A disturbance has formed in the western Mediterranean. Currently, it is devoid of convection, but has decent spin, and an ASCAT pass from 12 hours ago indicated an elongated circulation. Global models continue to indicate the potential for development into a tropical or subtropical cyclone. There is general broad agreement among the 12z CMC, UKMet, ICON, and ARPEGE that the system will move across Sardinia and into Sicily, before emerging into the Ionian sea. The system's expected track keeps it inside marginal 26C waters over its lifespan. Whether or not it will develop sufficient convective organisation to be considered a TC before its first landfall in Sardinia remains to be seen. In my unqualified and unprofessional opinion, it is not likely that significant convective organisation will occur, but the chances may increase once the system has emerged into the Tyrrhenian Sea in 2 to 3 days.

[sma10]

What’s that on the 12Z GFS 168-246 hour?

https://i.postimg.cc/nchBrkmb/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh168-246.gif

It’s a wave currently in the central Atlantic and mentioned in the 2021 waves thread. Previous GFS runs have brought it into the Bahamas at this time, but flung it out to sea; this run seems to trap it under weak steering currents, allowing it to become a hurricane.

This is the signal that the GFS and CMC has been hinting at the last couple days.

Not predicting sure-fire development, but it's beginning to look like there's a decent chance that the Sept 15-25 period will have possible disturbance(s) in the 20-30N, 70-80W box

[Iceresistance]

What is with the 12z GFS forming a Bahamas Hurricane, riding up the NE Florida Coast before slamming near Savannah, Georgia? Has there ever been any Atlantic Storms that done that before?

[Kohlecane]

What is with the 12z GFS forming a Bahamas Hurricane, riding up the NE Florida Coast before slamming near Savannah, Georgia? Has there ever been any Atlantic Storms that done that before?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh192-384.gif

Umm Nothing that I can recall that significantly strengthens like that shows, that's something you would see in the Wcar/WGOM, but maybe the Gulf Stream enhances this, usually that area this takes tends to weaken most storms, Matthew was suppose to wreck us and thankfully weakened a bit before hitting us, also very rare for a GA hit I havn't looked at the models so I'd have to see the set up, but this is showing 1 week from today of the area in the BA's getting together, whats ensembles show for that area, sorry on the go atm

[Hurricaneman]

12z GFS with home grown mischief in the Bahamas LATE in the run.

Is energy by wave now at 45W.

The Euro has it too but never really comes together

[aspen]

12z Euro - the two AOIs develop into Nicholas and Odette, but are short lived due to land interaction and getting ejected over cool SSTs. It shows the precursor of the GFS' Bahamas hurricane but never develops it. Later, two waves develop and would become Peter and Rose.

[jaxfladude]

What is with the 12z GFS forming a Bahamas Hurricane, riding up the NE Florida Coast before slamming near Savannah, Georgia? Has there ever been any Atlantic Storms that done that before?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pc ... 92-384.gif

Every year a model tries to break the the hurricane drought since Dora of 1964 for the greater First Coast. Hopefully another extended range miss of the said model.

[IcyTundra]

12z Euro - the two AOIs develop into Nicholas and Odette, but are short lived due to land interaction and getting ejected over cool SSTs. It shows the precursor of the GFS' Bahamas hurricane but never develops it. Later, two waves develop and would become Peter and Rose.
https://i.imgur.com/NDYhdDE.png
https://i.imgur.com/FwslzJ3.png
https://i.imgur.com/588RiUX.png
https://i.imgur.com/OHeWpt4.png
https://i.imgur.com/AjWkTiP.png

Wow if that happens we would be right on pace with 2005 getting the R named storm around September 18th.

[Category5Kaiju]

12z Euro - the two AOIs develop into Nicholas and Odette, but are short lived due to land interaction and getting ejected over cool SSTs. It shows the precursor of the GFS' Bahamas hurricane but never develops it. Later, two waves develop and would become Peter and Rose.
https://i.imgur.com/NDYhdDE.png
https://i.imgur.com/FwslzJ3.png
https://i.imgur.com/588RiUX.png
https://i.imgur.com/OHeWpt4.png
https://i.imgur.com/AjWkTiP.png

Wow if that happens we would be right on pace with 2005 getting the R named storm around September 18th.

Imagine a 28 NS year this year Now that would be quite shocking as even I, an oftentimes Atlantic bullish tracker, have been thinking that the most we would get this season is around 23 or so NSs

[Teban54]

12z Euro - the two AOIs develop into Nicholas and Odette, but are short lived due to land interaction and getting ejected over cool SSTs. It shows the precursor of the GFS' Bahamas hurricane but never develops it. Later, two waves develop and would become Peter and Rose.
https://i.imgur.com/NDYhdDE.png
https://i.imgur.com/FwslzJ3.png
https://i.imgur.com/588RiUX.png
https://i.imgur.com/OHeWpt4.png
https://i.imgur.com/AjWkTiP.png

Wow if that happens we would be right on pace with 2005 getting the R named storm around September 18th.

Imagine a 28 NS year this year Now that would be quite shocking as even I, an oftentimes Atlantic bullish tracker, have been thinking that the most we would get this season is around 23 or so NSs

2005 had 7 storms in October (record high), and that will be incredibly difficult to beat. So while I'm personally giving it a 0% chance of getting 28 NS, if all these Euro storms develop - and that's a big if - we will likely be using the auxiliary list.

[aspen]

Wow if that happens we would be right on pace with 2005 getting the R named storm around September 18th.

Imagine a 28 NS year this year Now that would be quite shocking as even I, an oftentimes Atlantic bullish tracker, have been thinking that the most we would get this season is around 23 or so NSs

2005 had 7 storms in October (record high), and that will be incredibly difficult to beat. So while I'm personally giving it a 0% chance of getting 28 NS, if all these Euro storms develop - and that's a big if - we will likely be using the auxiliary list.

I think 3 at most will develop, with the 10/30 AOI being too close to Mexico/TX. The 10/60 wave will probably be a Rene or Vicky repeat due to its high latitude and it’s possible the final wave could take a similar track (or it’s just typical Euro north bias and it’ll correct to a further SW track over time). By far the most concerning system is the possible low-rider, because it’ll go over the very warm ~29C SSTs of the SW MDR, like what Maria went through on approach to Dominica. No model is strong with it yet; perhaps it’ll stay weak until it gets into the Caribbean.

[IcyTundra]

Imagine a 28 NS year this year Now that would be quite shocking as even I, an oftentimes Atlantic bullish tracker, have been thinking that the most we would get this season is around 23 or so NSs

2005 had 7 storms in October (record high), and that will be incredibly difficult to beat. So while I'm personally giving it a 0% chance of getting 28 NS, if all these Euro storms develop - and that's a big if - we will likely be using the auxiliary list.

I think 3 at most will develop, with the 10/30 AOI being too close to Mexico/TX. The 10/60 wave will probably be a Rene or Vicky repeat due to its high latitude and it’s possible the final wave could take a similar track (or it’s just typical Euro north bias and it’ll correct to a further SW track over time). By far the most concerning system is the possible low-rider, because it’ll go over the very warm ~29C SSTs of the SW MDR, like what Maria went through on approach to Dominica. No model is strong with it yet; perhaps it’ll stay weak until it gets into the Caribbean.

I wouldn't write off the 10/30 AOI considering that Mindy formed with little model support I can see something similar happening with the 10/30 AOI.

[StPeteMike]

Seems like the Bahama system from the 12z GFS originates from the wave halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. The 6z has the system but MUCH weaker. Next few runs will be interesting if the models pick up a significant system developing from this sleeper wave.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS with home grown mischief in the Bahamas LATE in the run.

Is energy by wave now at 45W.

wave vorticity isn't traceable on the 18z GFS. It just blossoms in the vicinity of the Bahamas from nothing. No 'cane on the 18z BTW.