Texas Fall 2021

[Iceresistance]

My house recorded 59°F this morning, Camargo, OK fell to 51°F

[aggiecutter]

Refreshing: Checkout that Dewpoint.

[gpsnowman]

Refreshing: Checkout that Dewpoint.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/RvB9c11/Texarkana.png [/url]

Yeah it is warming up but it's not so bad, especially on my porch in the shade.

[vbhoutex]

And now we have this for SE TX from Jeff Lindner with Harris County Flood Control:

Dry air mass over the region is firmly entrenched behind weak front earlier this week and last night. This will yield hot days and “coolish” nights into Saturday with no chance of rainfall.

Pattern will undergo significant changes late Saturday into Sunday as a tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean Sea (see NHC outlook below) combines with a westward moving inverted trough axis and pool of deep tropical moisture to bring an increase in rain chances along the TX coast. Surge of deep tropical moisture looks to begin to arrive along the TX coast as early as late Saturday evening, but more likely and much more substantial on Sunday as bone dry PWS increase from near or less than an inch early Saturday to well over 2.0 inches on Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm activity over the western Gulf of Mexico will become widespread during the weekend and into early next week and global models ae largely in agreement on this trough axis and surge of moisture along the TX coast from Sunday-Wednesday. Trough axis sort of lays along the TX coast early next week in the height weakness field over the area. Low level convergence will be maximized on the SE side of this feature or near the coast and offshore during this period where copious rainfall is likely.

Significant rainfall is certainly possible into mid next week with this type of pattern in place, but these patterns tend to favor the coastline and offshore waters for the largest totals while inland areas tend to see much lower amounts. Global models have been showing some QPF bullseyes over the area and offshore suggesting at times excessive rainfall will be possible.

This type of pattern could also result in close in weak tropical cyclone formation. Several models have been bouncing around with this idea over the last several days showing weak closed surface lows along the MX or TX coastline next week. While any sort of surface low that may form next week would help to focus rainfall in that particular area, it is unclear where any low may form if at all and generally does not change the overall wet pattern that is incoming. This will be something that will have to be monitored closely next week especially if convection offshore becomes sustained.

Rainfall totals near the coast will likely add up to several inches with a fairly sharp cut off inland north of I-10 in both rain chances and amounts. Would not at all be surprised to see a location near the coast with 10-12 inches by the middle of next week.

And unfortunately he is not the only one who is talking about this. SE TX residents stay esecially aware of your local weather through next week.

[Brent]

The lack of humidity makes all the difference to me hopefully we can keep that up even with the warmup coming

[IcyTundra]

Not liking some of the rainfall numbers these models are putting out along the coast next week.

[Cpv17]

Not liking some of the rainfall numbers these models are putting out along the coast next week.

Right now I’m not really buying it. Big differences between GFS and Euro. Need to see the two come to an agreement.

[IcyTundra]

Not liking some of the rainfall numbers these models are putting out along the coast next week.

Right now I’m not really buying it. Big differences between GFS and Euro. Need to see the two come to an agreement.

I think the Euro is a bit too extreme on the rainfall totals but I also think the GFS is underselling the rain totals. I can easily see some areas getting 10+ inches of rain but overall the average totals should be much lower. Areas closer to the coast should see more rain than areas that are further inland, but as we have seen in the past it is close to impossible to predict which areas will see the most rainfall.

[Cpv17]

Not liking some of the rainfall numbers these models are putting out along the coast next week.

Right now I’m not really buying it. Big differences between GFS and Euro. Need to see the two come to an agreement.

I think the Euro is a bit too extreme on the rainfall totals but I also think the GFS is underselling the rain totals. I can easily see some areas getting 10+ inches of rain but overall the average totals should be much lower. Areas closer to the coast should see more rain than areas that are further inland, but as we have seen in the past it is close to impossible to predict which areas will see the most rainfall.

I think the difference is that the Euro develops it and the GFS just has it a sloppy mess which is why the higher rain totals are displaced mainly east of us on the GFS. I’m not buying into the higher rain totals only sticking to the coast either. If something does develop and moves inland so will some higher rain totals. I think you could expand the higher totals from the coast up to I-10 and points south of there for now. I do believe somewhere in Texas or Louisiana will get some good rains from this but I’m just not sold on southeast Texas yet being the bullseye. It’s a boom or bust scenario for me right now. I do believe tomorrow by 12z we’ll know more.

[Clearcloudz]

Not liking some of the rainfall numbers these models are putting out along the coast next week.

Right now I’m not really buying it. Big differences between GFS and Euro. Need to see the two come to an agreement.

I think the Euro is a bit too extreme on the rainfall totals but I also think the GFS is underselling the rain totals. I can easily see some areas getting 10+ inches of rain but overall the average totals should be much lower. Areas closer to the coast should see more rain than areas that are further inland, but as we have seen in the past it is close to impossible to predict which areas will see the most rainfall.

The Euro typically is conservative in these cases so the fact that its even showing something this intense in rainfall should be worth watching especially if the 00Z shows similar possibility tonight

[Brent]

NHC mentioning a tropical depression could form before landfall on Sunday or Monday

Most of the GEFS tracks go well inland over Texas

[Ntxw]

Lots of rain for coastal TX with Nicholas. Let's hope it stays weak.

For the rest of us, another surge of warmth behind it. Mid 90s is well above normal for mid Sept.

[starsfan65]

Lots of rain for coastal TX with Nicholas. Let's hope it stays weak.

For the rest of us, another surge of warmth behind it. Mid 90s is well above normal for mid Sept.

surge of warmth?

[Haris]

12z euro. 61". what

[Ntxw]

Lots of rain for coastal TX with Nicholas. Let's hope it stays weak.

For the rest of us, another surge of warmth behind it. Mid 90s is well above normal for mid Sept.

surge of warmth?

If the GFS group verifies it will move northeast and warmth will surge ahead of the next trough. All models do give a little sign of a decent cold front to accompany that trof if it digs.

Euro however stalls steering and dumps a dangerous amount of rain.

[Cpv17]

12z euro. 61". what

They’re saying the center will reform almost 100 miles further northeast and most of the rain will be over extreme southeast TX and Louisiana now. We’ll see I guess. That’s just what I heard from a met.

[weatherdude1108]

12z euro. 61". what

They’re saying the center will reform almost 100 miles further northeast and most of the rain will be over extreme southeast TX and Louisiana now. We’ll see I guess. That’s just what I heard from a met.

That would be our luck. Granted we.don't need 15 inches of rain either. I'd be happy with 2"o 4" as a good soaker.

[Cpv17]

12z euro. 61". what

They’re saying the center will reform almost 100 miles further northeast and most of the rain will be over extreme southeast TX and Louisiana now. We’ll see I guess. That’s just what I heard from a met.

That would be our luck. Granted we.don't need 15 inches of rain either. I'd be happy with 2"o 4" as a good soaker.

How you think I feel? Lol I’m right on the border between receiving 3-4” or 15-20”. My family keeps asking me what it’s going to do and idk what to tell them.

[weatherdude1108]

They’re saying the center will reform almost 100 miles further northeast and most of the rain will be over extreme southeast TX and Louisiana now. We’ll see I guess. That’s just what I heard from a met.

That would be our luck. Granted we.don't need 15 inches of rain either. I'd be happy with 2"o 4" as a good soaker.

How you think I feel? Lol I’m right on the border between receiving 3-4” or 15-20”. My family keeps asking me what it’s going to do and idk what to tell them.

I get it. When my family asks me what the weather's going to do, I have to say, "Well, according fo the forecast models this hour..."lol.

These tropical systems ultimately have minds of their own, following the paths of least resistance whether it's warm SSTs, low shear areas, etc., before they get sucked up into the prevailing westerlies or whatever global system is in play. There is gunna be a sharp QPF gradient with.this system, I guess because it's compact.

[Texas Snowman]

Hurricane watch now up for the middle Texas Coast from Port Aransas to Sargent...