WPAC: CHANTHU - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Nearing 160 at this point.

[Hayabusa]

2021SEP10 091000 7.4 908.5 152.0 7.4 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.94 -79.18 EYE 17 IR 59.1 18.37 -123.19 ARCHER HIM-8 29.4

[aspen]

A T7.5 storm it is…

This is easily 150-160 kt now. Thank goodness it’s gonna miss the Philippines, and it’ll hopefully have enough time before Taiwan to weaken from an EWRC.

[doomhaMwx]

TY2114(Chanthu)
Issued at 2021/09/10 09:50 UTC
Analisys at 09/10 09 UTC
Category TY
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center Position N18°20′(18.3°)
E123°20′(123.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
50-kt wind area WIDE85km(45NM)
30-kt wind area E280km(150NM)
W165km(90NM)

[mrbagyo]

thick eyewall ring and a hint of an outer eyewall forming.

[doomhaMwx]

Himawari-8 RGB loop, 03Z-10Z today.

[dexterlabio]

A T7.5 storm it is…

This is easily 150-160 kt now. Thank goodness it’s gonna miss the Philippines, and it’ll hopefully have enough time before Taiwan to weaken from an EWRC.

There's still a chance the eye could graze the Batanes islands chain, particularly Itbayat, the same island Meranti hit in 2016 at peak intensity. I hope they are better prepared for a storm like Chanthu, I know the people in these islands are used to typhoons (their houses are made of solid rock) but not Meranti or Chanthu-level ones. Nonetheless, the measurements on the ground will be interesting if Chanthu's eye directly passes over.

[dexterlabio]

On a side note, Chanthu could just be the smallest Category 5-equivalent tropical cyclone ever recorded.

[doomhaMwx]

FWIW, the HongKong Observatory (HKO) is mentioning a central pressure of 890mb in their TC Warning for Shipping.

Bulletin issued at 18:30 HKT 10/Sep/2021

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 100900 UTC, Super Typhoon Chanthu (2114) with central pressure 890 hectopascals was centred within 10 nautical miles of one eight point three degrees north (18.3 N) one two three point three degrees east (123.3 E) and is forecast to move northwest at about 8 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 130 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 120 nautical miles.
Radius of over 47 knot winds 60 nautical miles.
Radius of over 63 knot winds 30 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 180 nautical miles.

[Hayabusa]

115 kt ~ Halong level

WTPQ21 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 18.7N 122.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST

[aspen]

T#7.5

[mrbagyo]

Damn, Aparri radar disappeared

[Hayabusa]

19W CHANTHU 210910 1200 18.7N 122.8E WPAC 140 922

[aspen]

19W CHANTHU 210910 1200 18.7N 122.8E WPAC 140 922

Twice now, the JTWC has said this is weakening as it reaches peak intensity. Are they even looking at the same cyclone we are? This is clearly T#7.4-7.5 (150-155 kt).

[mrbagyo]

19W CHANTHU 210910 1200 18.7N 122.8E WPAC 140 922

Twice now, the JTWC has said this is weakening as it reaches peak intensity. Are they even looking at the same cyclone we are? This is clearly T#7.4-7.5 (150-155 kt).

IDK, maybe they're having reservations due to Chanthu's eye temp which has never reached past 20°C threshold (majority of past 155 knots typhoons sported eye temp greater or equal to 20C)

[ElectricStorm]

19W CHANTHU 210910 1200 18.7N 122.8E WPAC 140 922

Terrible. Just absolutely terrible

[aspen]

19W CHANTHU 210910 1200 18.7N 122.8E WPAC 140 922

Twice now, the JTWC has said this is weakening as it reaches peak intensity. Are they even looking at the same cyclone we are? This is clearly T#7.4-7.5 (150-155 kt).

IDK, maybe they're having reservations due to Chanthu's eye temp which has never reached past 20°C threshold (majority of past 155 knots typhoons sported eye temp greater or equal to 20C)

They’re still 10-15 kt below ADT, subjective Dvorak, and CIRA’s intensity estimate. Why are they disregarding all of those when this is clearly much stronger and possibly still intensifying? I can’t recall the last time I’ve seen such disregard for other intensity estimates.

Maybe the awful SATCON estimates (120 kt) are dragging this down.

[aspen]

What we see vs what JTWC sees

[Iceresistance]

19W CHANTHU 210910 1200 18.7N 122.8E WPAC 140 922

Twice now, the JTWC has said this is weakening as it reaches peak intensity. Are they even looking at the same cyclone we are? This is clearly T#7.4-7.5 (150-155 kt).

They did revise Hagibis in 2019 from 165 mph to 185 mph . . .

[WALL-E]

I assume JTWC must have some sound evidence to justify an 140KT (vs. the adt nearing T7.5), and a weakening from 06z to 12z.

What a show.