2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[chaser1]

I'm expecting another big burst in activity, but I think at this point hyperactive is off the table, as it should be. One would hope hyperactive seasons are quite rare. This talk of hyperactivity has also diminished, in my opinion, how destructive non hyperactive seasons can be.

I am not so convinced hyperactivity is off the table. A La Nina is likely going to make October and November very active. If you are using the definition of >210 ACE, I could see the argument; but hyperactivity is currently defined as >159 ACE. The season so far has produced 66.8 ACE.
EDIT: Your definition of "off the table" is probable, not possible. Could you elaborate as to why hyperactivity is not probable?

Why is it probable? To me it's insane to ever think an extreme season is probable. Statistically it's never probably, otherwise it wouldn't be an outlier. Most probably is a solidly above average season, IMO anyway. Why is it so important that this season reach a certain metric?

I wholeheartedly agree. I've always found it hilarious how some pro's & weather geeks obsess over how "this or that year was hyper" or how this year's ACE may be titillatingly high, or similar to ____ . To me having a conversation or debate regarding a season's ACE, is about the same as having a debate or conversation about flatulence
I mean seriously, if I were fortunate enough to be on the opposite side of the house where some rancid foul odor existed.... then - I'm good. No harm - no foul; No impact to me! On the other hand if I'm sitting in some small office waiting room and the three others in the room pass gas, well THAT has affected "me" I see no better measure to view the ferocity of any single hurricane season, then looking directly at the impact that tropical cyclones had on people and property. Measure it by cost of destruction, or deaths, or number of people or different regions affected... take your pick but really, THAT is how millions of people will reflect on the significance of this or any other year. ACE won't leave anyone homeless, or destroy local economies, or warn us of impending doom. Even here within the 2021 Indicators thread, someone tell me what this year's accumulated ACE will possibly shed light on the potential risk from this present hurricane season... or the next season. It can't. It's simply a number to be reflected on in post-analysis. Here's the other thing. Can someone tell me how a long-tracker that eventually slams into Tampa as a Cat 4, is somehow more destructive then a Cat 4 that accumulated less ACE due to it forming closer in the W. Caribbean? How many old-timers actually sit around and banter "boy I'll never forget that big-blow of '49.... it's ACE was off the charts"? A season's ACE, along with $1.50 won't buy anyone a cup of coffee at Starbucks.

[toad strangler]

I am not so convinced hyperactivity is off the table. A La Nina is likely going to make October and November very active. If you are using the definition of >210 ACE, I could see the argument; but hyperactivity is currently defined as >159 ACE. The season so far has produced 66.8 ACE.
EDIT: Your definition of "off the table" is probable, not possible. Could you elaborate as to why hyperactivity is not probable?

Why is it probable? To me it's insane to ever think an extreme season is probable. Statistically it's never probably, otherwise it wouldn't be an outlier. Most probably is a solidly above average season, IMO anyway. Why is it so important that this season reach a certain metric?

I wholeheartedly agree. I've always found it hilarious how some pro's & weather geeks obsess over how "this or that year was hyper" or how this year's ACE may be titillatingly high, or similar to ____ . To me having a conversation or debate regarding a season's ACE, is about the same as having a debate or conversation about flatulence
I mean seriously, if I were fortunate enough to be on the opposite side of the house where some rancid foul odor existed.... then - I'm good. No harm - no foul; No impact to me! On the other hand if I'm sitting in some small office waiting room and the three others in the room pass gas, well THAT has affected "me" I see no better measure to view the ferocity of any single hurricane season, then looking directly at the impact that tropical cyclones had on people and property. Measure it by cost of destruction, or deaths, or number of people or different regions affected... take your pick but really, THAT is how millions of people will reflect on the significance of this or any other year. ACE won't leave anyone homeless, or destroy local economies, or warn us of impending doom. Even here within the 2021 Indicators thread, someone tell me what this year's accumulated ACE will possibly shed light on the potential risk from this present hurricane season... or the next season. It can't. It's simply a number to be reflected on in post-analysis. Here's the other thing. Can someone tell me how a long-tracker that eventually slams into Tampa as a Cat 4, is somehow more destructive then a Cat 4 that accumulated less ACE due to it forming closer in the W. Caribbean? How many old-timers actually sit around and banter "boy I'll never forget that big-blow of '49.... it's ACE was off the charts"? A season's ACE, along with $1.50 won't buy anyone a cup of coffee at Starbucks.

I've always been a big advocate that ACE is an awful metric in many ways when judging an overall season. So happy it's not highlighted here in the title of the S2K Indicators thread

[AlphaToOmega]

Climatology is one heck of a drug for hurricanes. It can override unfavorable MJO patterns.

Come in about a week or two once the MJO becomes favorable again
The posts about September being less active than August are likely going to age like milk unless we have a surprise thermohaline circulation shutdown

[AxaltaRacing24]

Climatology is one heck of a drug for hurricanes. It can override unfavorable MJO patterns.
https://i.postimg.cc/3JvB4r4h/two-atl-5d0.png
Come in about a week or two once the MJO becomes favorable again
The posts about September being less active than August are likely going to age like milk unless we have a surprise thermohaline circulation shutdown

Could be at 3-4 storms before the month even is halfway over.

[Category5Kaiju]

Climatology is one heck of a drug for hurricanes. It can override unfavorable MJO patterns.
https://i.postimg.cc/3JvB4r4h/two-atl-5d0.png
Come in about a week or two once the MJO becomes favorable again
The posts about September being less active than August are likely going to age like milk unless we have a surprise thermohaline circulation shutdown

Could be at 3-4 storms before the month even is halfway over.

It’s a very plausible yet insane thought at the same time. Imagine if we still used the Greek letter naming system and had a monster October storm this year with La Niña forcing.

[aspen]

Models suggests TCG will pick up throughout the next two weeks, with five areas to watch during that time frame:
- The 40/70 AOI that will be over the 30-31C SSTs of the western Gulf for about 48 hours maximum. Even if it doesn't develop, it could be quite the rain threat
- The 50/70 AOI over by Cape Verde. It will have limited time over >26C SSTs before it gets too far north, unless the GFS is right and it doesn't recurve super early
- An AEW currently located in the central MDR and could be over by the Bahamas in 5-6 days. SSTs are very concerning, but so far there's no consistent development signal
- An AEW expected to emerge on Sept 17/18th and could have a similar path to the 50/70 wave (not marked because the two would overlap)
- A possible low-riding wave that would be a problem for the Lesser Antilles and NW Caribbean if this track verifies


Out of all the 5 disturbances, I'm most concerned about the Euro's low-rider. The track and timing reminds me a lot of Maria, and SSTs at that latitude before the Lesser Antilles are quite high, meaning a phase of RI right before hitting the islands could occur if there's a TC there. Fortunately, we have plenty of time to watch this.

[Category5Kaiju]

Models suggests TCG will pick up throughout the next two weeks, with five areas to watch during that time frame:
- The 40/70 AOI that will be over the 30-31C SSTs of the western Gulf for about 48 hours maximum. Even if it doesn't develop, it could be quite the rain threat
- The 50/70 AOI over by Cape Verde. It will have limited time over >26C SSTs before it gets too far north, unless the GFS is right and it doesn't recurve super early
- An AEW currently located in the central MDR and could be over by the Bahamas in 5-6 days. SSTs are very concerning, but so far there's no consistent development signal
- An AEW expected to emerge on Sept 17/18th and could have a similar path to the 50/70 wave (not marked because the two would overlap)
- A possible low-riding wave that would be a problem for the Lesser Antilles and NW Caribbean if this track verifies
https://i.imgur.com/Bf5eFya.png

Out of all the 5 disturbances, I'm most concerned about the Euro's low-rider. The track and timing reminds me a lot of Maria, and SSTs at that latitude before the Lesser Antilles are quite high, meaning a phase of RI right before hitting the islands could occur if there's a TC there. Fortunately, we have plenty of time to watch this.

Things got really real with the Euro low rider in the most recent run. It's like a Maria/Georges/Jose/Frances hybrid

[AlphaToOmega]

Models suggests TCG will pick up throughout the next two weeks, with five areas to watch during that time frame:
- The 40/70 AOI that will be over the 30-31C SSTs of the western Gulf for about 48 hours maximum. Even if it doesn't develop, it could be quite the rain threat
- The 50/70 AOI over by Cape Verde. It will have limited time over >26C SSTs before it gets too far north, unless the GFS is right and it doesn't recurve super early
- An AEW currently located in the central MDR and could be over by the Bahamas in 5-6 days. SSTs are very concerning, but so far there's no consistent development signal
- An AEW expected to emerge on Sept 17/18th and could have a similar path to the 50/70 wave (not marked because the two would overlap)
- A possible low-riding wave that would be a problem for the Lesser Antilles and NW Caribbean if this track verifies
https://i.imgur.com/Bf5eFya.png

Out of all the 5 disturbances, I'm most concerned about the Euro's low-rider. The track and timing reminds me a lot of Maria, and SSTs at that latitude before the Lesser Antilles are quite high, meaning a phase of RI right before hitting the islands could occur if there's a TC there. Fortunately, we have plenty of time to watch this.

Five potential storms between September 10 and September 20
That is climatology for you! September is almost always the most active month, and it is very likely to show this season as well.
Four more storms before September 20 would put us ahead of 2005.

[tolakram]

I don't want to junk of the global model thread anymore so I'll post this here. The circle is 400 nautical miles in diameter to catch most CV storms on record. Most recurve, period. This is from 1852 until now. There's not enough data to try and predict which ones won't IMO.



link: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map= ... UiOnRydWV9

[toad strangler]

I don't want to junk of the global model thread anymore so I'll post this here. The circle is 400 nautical miles in diameter to catch most CV storms on record. Most recurve, period. This is from 1852 until now. There's not enough data to try and predict which ones won't IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/ZGgQJXP.png

link: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map= ... UiOnRydWV9

Shellmound is caught up on the rocks with this CV thing. AEW waves that don't develop until FAR to the WEST and well past the CV region can and have gone on to hit terra firma way out WEST all the way through October.. some don't blossom until in the far W Carribean.True CV storms have to genesis in the CV region. It's rudimentary that those that do will re-curve on a very high climo percentage. It's a wasted discussion IMO. He hasn't been able to make that very important distinction.

[Nuno]

Why is it probable? To me it's insane to ever think an extreme season is probable. Statistically it's never probably, otherwise it wouldn't be an outlier. Most probably is a solidly above average season, IMO anyway. Why is it so important that this season reach a certain metric?

I wholeheartedly agree. I've always found it hilarious how some pro's & weather geeks obsess over how "this or that year was hyper" or how this year's ACE may be titillatingly high, or similar to ____ . To me having a conversation or debate regarding a season's ACE, is about the same as having a debate or conversation about flatulence
I mean seriously, if I were fortunate enough to be on the opposite side of the house where some rancid foul odor existed.... then - I'm good. No harm - no foul; No impact to me! On the other hand if I'm sitting in some small office waiting room and the three others in the room pass gas, well THAT has affected "me" I see no better measure to view the ferocity of any single hurricane season, then looking directly at the impact that tropical cyclones had on people and property. Measure it by cost of destruction, or deaths, or number of people or different regions affected... take your pick but really, THAT is how millions of people will reflect on the significance of this or any other year. ACE won't leave anyone homeless, or destroy local economies, or warn us of impending doom. Even here within the 2021 Indicators thread, someone tell me what this year's accumulated ACE will possibly shed light on the potential risk from this present hurricane season... or the next season. It can't. It's simply a number to be reflected on in post-analysis. Here's the other thing. Can someone tell me how a long-tracker that eventually slams into Tampa as a Cat 4, is somehow more destructive then a Cat 4 that accumulated less ACE due to it forming closer in the W. Caribbean? How many old-timers actually sit around and banter "boy I'll never forget that big-blow of '49.... it's ACE was off the charts"? A season's ACE, along with $1.50 won't buy anyone a cup of coffee at Starbucks.

I've always been a big advocate that ACE is an awful metric in many ways when judging an overall season. So happy it's not highlighted here in the title of the S2K Indicators thread

I think last season really showed many people how flawed the metric itself is. It was never even intended to be utilized in the way we see it now as a season-wide metric to compare other seasons. Besides, we have enough indicators that people argue over anyways

[AlphaToOmega]

Bears are starting to regret every word they said

[Category5Kaiju]

Bears are starting to regret every word they said
https://i.postimg.cc/J46PwQTh/two-atl-5d0.png

I really doubted the talk of an inactive September in the first place; in fact, I honestly have no clue where or why it even became a topic of discussion

[AlphaToOmega]

Bears are starting to regret every word they said
https://i.postimg.cc/J46PwQTh/two-atl-5d0.png

I really doubted the talk of an inactive September in the first place; in fact, I honestly have no clue where or why it even became a topic of discussion

Flawed VP forecasts + SAL + flawed model runs + disregard for climatology = absurd bearishness

[Category5Kaiju]

Bears are starting to regret every word they said
https://i.postimg.cc/J46PwQTh/two-atl-5d0.png

I really doubted the talk of an inactive September in the first place; in fact, I honestly have no clue where or why it even became a topic of discussion

Flawed VP forecasts + SAL + flawed model runs + disregard for climatology = absurd bearishness

When it comes down to hurricane season, there's a reason why September is to Remember.

[SteveM]

Bears are starting to regret every word they said
https://i.postimg.cc/J46PwQTh/two-atl-5d0.png

I really doubted the talk of an inactive September in the first place; in fact, I honestly have no clue where or why it even became a topic of discussion

I don't think it ever did, really. There has been lots of talk dismissing those who said September would be inactive, but I've hardly seen anyone actually claim that it would be inactive in the first place.

[Cat5James]

Bears are starting to regret every word they said
https://i.postimg.cc/J46PwQTh/two-atl-5d0.png

You can add an invest area near the Bahamas to that map soon enough.

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/-CXt-XFdyww[/youtube]

[Ubuntwo]

Bears are starting to regret every word they said
https://i.postimg.cc/J46PwQTh/two-atl-5d0.png

I really doubted the talk of an inactive September in the first place; in fact, I honestly have no clue where or why it even became a topic of discussion

Flawed VP forecasts + SAL + flawed model runs + disregard for climatology = absurd bearishness

Be mature. September is always an active month, but there are intraseasonal factors within that. The indicators thread is here to discuss those.

A CCKW should pass over the basin late September-early October. So expect a burst of storms around that time.

The MJO is poised to move back into phase around mid October. That is to say, October is lining up to be even more active.

[Woofde]

There's a quite large cold wake from where Larry traversed, but there is still a very high amount of heat out there. It's definitely worth noting how the significantly warmer northwest Atlantic allowed Larry to maintain tropical status so much farther than normal.