ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

For the African Wave.

AL, 93, 2021091018, , BEST, 0, 118N, 153W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 032, SPAWNINVEST, al752021 to al932021,

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/reposito ... 932021.dat

[AnnularCane]

Wow, I just clicked on this topic without even reading the title. Then it's "whoa, an invest!"

Although I expected the other one to be declared first.

[aspen]

Now it’s a race to see who will become Nicholas. My hunch is that 93L will get it, unless it takes a while to develop and 94L develops quicker.

[Sciencerocks]

[hipshot]

Now it’s a race to see who will become Nicholas. My hunch is that 93L will get it, unless it takes a while to develop and 94L develops quicker.

Which one is 93L and 94L. I'm more interested in the one which is supposed to cruise along the Mexican and Texas coast.

[AnnularCane]

Now it’s a race to see who will become Nicholas. My hunch is that 93L will get it, unless it takes a while to develop and 94L develops quicker.

Which one is 93L and 94L. I'm more interested in the one which is supposed to cruise along the Mexican and Texas coast.

No 94L yet, but the one over the Yucatan should eventually be that one.

[aspen]

Now it’s a race to see who will become Nicholas. My hunch is that 93L will get it, unless it takes a while to develop and 94L develops quicker.

Which one is 93L and 94L. I'm more interested in the one which is supposed to cruise along the Mexican and Texas coast.

While it hasn’t been designated yet, the Yucatán wave will be 94L.

[ouragans]

Invest 93L
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 10, 2021:

Location: 11.8°N 15.3°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 60 nm

[aspen]

Still at 50/70 for the 8pm TWO, but the 5-day development cone has shifted further SW.

[LarryWx]

Invest 93L
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 10, 2021:

Location: 11.8°N 15.3°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 60 nm

Note how far south they have it! I didn’t expect that. If that’s where the real main LLC is, that is almost for sure NOT going to recurve sharply. That’s much further south than the convective ball I was following earlier, which was up near 14N.

Also, note that the red area is oriented further south as was just noted. That’s likely because the Euro abruptly dropped its quick recurve at 12z (and on 18Z, too).

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 93, 2021091100, , BEST, 0, 127N, 172W, 25, 1010, DB

[ElectricStorm]

Not 100% recurve IMO, lots of possibilities here. Hopefully it goes OTS but we'll see.

[CrazyC83]

It seems the models are not too impressed with this though. Poor conditions ahead?

[Sciencerocks]

[Nuno]

It seems the models are not too impressed with this though. Poor conditions ahead?

Is this the storm that GFS has been showing off Florida moving north towards GA/SC in 10 days time?

[Teban54]

It seems the models are not too impressed with this though. Poor conditions ahead?

Not expecting much from 93L, but what's concerning is that it could create better conditions for the low-rider behind it.

[CrazyC83]

It seems the models are not too impressed with this though. Poor conditions ahead?

Not expecting much from 93L, but what's concerning is that it could create better conditions for the low-rider behind it.

That's what I'm thinking. 95L will be a bigger one to watch.

[AlphaToOmega]

Do not discount this wave. As Julian can tell you, waves can develop when you least expect it. Ensembles support development, and conditions are conducive. I think a tropical storm is likely.

[AlphaToOmega]

It seems the models are not too impressed with this though. Poor conditions ahead?

Ensembles are still impressed

[Kohlecane]

It seems the models are not too impressed with this though. Poor conditions ahead?

Ensembles are still impressed

https://i.imgur.com/9TkJh0u.png
I know this is the discussion, but it seems that yes ensembles do support but it looks like AOI below 93L is getting the majority of support, then again I could be mistaken.