Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan (Is Invest 94L)
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
The 00Z GFS is seeing the dry air, too, most of the way to Galveston Bay. (And I gotta say, that ain't no hay.)*
Plus, if you look at the upper-level winds around the ridge over Mexico -- the one that Wxman was talking about, I'm guessing -- it really does look as if the GFS is seeing some pretty healthy (upper-level) shear for most of the way to landfall.
*Gotta be a geezer and a half to get that one.
Plus, if you look at the upper-level winds around the ridge over Mexico -- the one that Wxman was talking about, I'm guessing -- it really does look as if the GFS is seeing some pretty healthy (upper-level) shear for most of the way to landfall.
*Gotta be a geezer and a half to get that one.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
Cpv17 wrote:The GEFS is quite a bit further west than the op.
Ensembles (anecdotally) seem to have had that bias a few days out in the west basin this season.
Last edited by Steve on Sat Sep 11, 2021 12:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
Craters wrote:The 00Z GFS is seeing the dry air, too, most of the way to Galveston Bay. (And I gotta say, that ain't no hay.)*
https://i.ibb.co/jWTRKn7/RH.jpg
Plus, if you look at the upper-level winds around the ridge over Mexico -- the one that Wxman was talking about, I'm guessing -- it really does look as if the GFS is seeing some pretty healthy (upper-level) shear for most of the way to landfall.
https://i.ibb.co/m4hKFZT/ULWind.jpg
*Gotta be a geezer and a half to get that one.
That only appears to limit the level of organization but not so much rainfall rates at the coast which appears to be the main threat as of now.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
Steve wrote:Craters wrote:The 00Z GFS is seeing the dry air, too, most of the way to Galveston Bay. (And I gotta say, that ain't no hay.)*
https://i.ibb.co/jWTRKn7/RH.jpg
Plus, if you look at the upper-level winds around the ridge over Mexico -- the one that Wxman was talking about, I'm guessing -- it really does look as if the GFS is seeing some pretty healthy (upper-level) shear for most of the way to landfall.
https://i.ibb.co/m4hKFZT/ULWind.jpg
*Gotta be a geezer and a half to get that one.
That only appears to limit the level of organization but not so much rainfall rates at the coast which appears to be the main threat as of now.
Hi, Steve -- Yep. I agree 100%. Not obvious, I guess, but I was continuing my response to SoupBone's comment about the pulsating intensity of the system as it approaches Texas in the 00Z GFS.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
The Euro makes this all clear as mud. It takes the system deep into Texas over San Antonio.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
SoupBone wrote:The Euro makes this all clear as mud. It takes the system deep into Texas over San Antonio.
Then it sends it towards Houston lol
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
Cpv17 wrote:SoupBone wrote:The Euro makes this all clear as mud. It takes the system deep into Texas over San Antonio.
Then it sends it towards Houston lol
This run would support what wxman was saying, Houston and the whole Texas coast would get a bunch of rain from a sloppy depression-like system. I wonder what the next GFS will do. This was way further west from this Euro run.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
SoupBone wrote:Cpv17 wrote:SoupBone wrote:The Euro makes this all clear as mud. It takes the system deep into Texas over San Antonio.
Then it sends it towards Houston lol
This run would support what wxman was saying, Houston and the whole Texas coast would get a bunch of rain from a sloppy depression-like system. I wonder what the next GFS will do. This was way further west from this Euro run.
Yeah, no kidding. That would be a pretty good rainmaker for us with that track.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
The Euro dumps over 24 inches of rain in Houston.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
Interesting that the highest rain totals are further inland according to the Euro.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
12Z QPF
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
I wouldn't be concerned with dry air. It won't have any problem firing convection over 31C waters
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
Confidence is increasing. Not too often you see the WPC break out the yellow.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
Often times WPC is pretty conservative in their rainfall predictions some areas can easily see 15+ inches of rain imo.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
Last edited by kassi on Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan
I like how a trough connects Larry, former Mindy, and Invest 94L. Reminds me of last year when Teddy was connected to Beta in a similar fashion. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=g ... =undefined
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