ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

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South Texas Storms
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ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#1 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:53 am

Models only here please.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#2 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:11 am

00Z GFS Total Rainfall

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00 ECMWF Total Rainfall

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00Z ECMWF Control Model Total Rainfall

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#3 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:28 am

00Z NAVGEM Model run

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#4 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:33 am

06z HWRF keeps this too close to the coast to become anything beyond a TD or weak TS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#5 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:41 am

06Z GEFS Ensemble Run

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#6 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:53 am

00Z EPS Ensemble Run (Some members stalling)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#7 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:54 am

06z HMON focuses on the EPac. I’m guessing both hurricane models will struggle until they have a defined center to latch on to.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#8 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:07 am

06Z Icon Model Run

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#9 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:36 am

06z Euro shifts back to the east of a solution of a coast rider from Brownsville up to Corpus Christi. We could be seeing the usual west biased Euro in the western GOM.
It shows a not so bad UL winds while over southern TX.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#10 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:38 am

aspen wrote:06z HMON focuses on the EPac. I’m guessing both hurricane models will struggle until they have a defined center to latch on to.


I don't even pay attention to the HMON even after the storm has formed, it has done horrible, it was way west biased with Ida, so was the HWRF.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#11 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:52 am

According to the Euro, ICON and GFS by this time tomorrow we will have a developing circulation down in the BOC.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#12 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 11, 2021 9:51 am

06Z EPS Ensemble Run

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#13 Postby SoupBone » Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:01 am

Is the 06Z GFS just out to lunch? It brings it to the EAST of Galveston/Houston and into SWLA.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#14 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:07 am

SoupBone wrote:Is the 06Z GFS just out to lunch? It brings it to the EAST of Galveston/Houston and into SWLA.


It would be a outlier unless the other models start trending that way.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#15 Postby wxman22 » Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:24 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#16 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:16 am

Huge east shift on the 12z GFS. It doesn’t have landfall until about 78 hours out, giving it up to two full days over water.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#17 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:22 am

aspen wrote:Huge east shift on the 12z GFS. It doesn’t have landfall until about 78 hours out, giving it up to two full days over water.


The GFS has been very inconsistent with this system. I'm not trusting it right now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#18 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:25 am

GFS is east biased and the Euro is west biased split the difference and you get somewhere along the Central Texas coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#19 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:26 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
aspen wrote:Huge east shift on the 12z GFS. It doesn’t have landfall until about 78 hours out, giving it up to two full days over water.


The GFS has been very inconsistent with this system. I'm not trusting it right now.


Euro has been more consistent and the operational GFS is still on the far eastern end of the ensemble guidance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:38 am

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1436730615701938190


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