ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

[NDG]

This is why the GFS sends it towards the LA Coast for landfall, it shows the ridge over the southern US shifting south towards the SE GOM while the mid level trough over the northern GOM shift towards the SE US creating the weakness to the NE of 94L and a sudden NE track.

[loon]

Are other models seeing this as well? Got friends in LA, they could do without another hit to the state Of course the other way would be flooding Houston out again... no good landing area here.

[NDG]

Are other models seeing this as well? Got friends in LA, they could do without another hit to the state Of course the other way would be flooding Houston out again... no good landing area here.

No, ICON and Euro remain over TX, CMC sends it to MX.
But just a friendly reminder how well it did with Mindy, was very persistent in it developing into a TS.

[IcyTundra]

Are other models seeing this as well? Got friends in LA, they could do without another hit to the state Of course the other way would be flooding Houston out again... no good landing area here.

What part of LA? SE LA doesn’t need to worry about this SW Louisiana and areas as far east as Lafayette could see some high rain totals though.

[IcyTundra]

This is why the GFS sends it towards the LA Coast for landfall, it shows the ridge over the southern US shifting south towards the SE GOM while the mid level trough over the northern GOM shift towards the SE US creating the weakness to the NE of 94L and a sudden NE track.

https://i.imgur.com/nVgTjzY.gif

GFS has been pretty inconsistent with this system so far not sure if I will buy the GFS solution until we see some consistency with the GFS. Operational GFS is an eastern outlier if you look at the GEFS, Euro, and EPS. I’m not saying it can’t happen but the GFS is out on its own right now suggesting a SW LA landfall.

[wkwally]

Ok it looks like with the models that Houston is going to be impacted in some way by 94L, what ETA are we looking at for the Houston area?

[tolakram]

12Z euro running

[tolakram]

Ok it looks like with the models that Houston is going to be impacted in some way by 94L, what ETA are we looking at for the Houston area?

If it happens, 72 hours or so.

[IcyTundra]

12Z GEFS ensemble mean is well west of the 12Z GFS.

[tolakram]

[Clearcloudz]

12Z EURO 48 hours out

[Clearcloudz]

12Z EURO 72 hours out

[kevin]

Seems like a Mexico/Texas TS is definitely in the cards based on the Euro and GFS.

[tolakram]

Euro still beings it inland at 61 hours



source: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/921-w-267-n/sea-level-pressure/20210914-0100z.html

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[Clearcloudz]

https://i.imgur.com/0eCH8sZ.png

Wherever those extremely heavy bands set producing efficient 3 to 4 inch rainfall per hour will be where we see over 15 to 20 inch totals but the specific area will be small while large area will probably get 4 to 8 inches.

[Clearcloudz]

12Z EURO 96 hours out

[tolakram]

It's a northeast shift from the 0Z, but close to the previous 12Z.

Here's the 0Z


and the latest 12Z

[Clearcloudz]

12Z Euro showing a more progressive storm resulting in less rainfall (maximum 12 inches in spots)