ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

[NDG]

This is why the GFS sends it towards the LA Coast for landfall, it shows the ridge over the southern US shifting south towards the SE GOM while the mid level trough over the northern GOM shift towards the SE US creating the weakness to the NE of 94L and a sudden NE track.

https://i.imgur.com/nVgTjzY.gif

GFS has been pretty inconsistent with this system so far not sure if I will buy the GFS solution until we see some consistency with the GFS. Operational GFS is an eastern outlier if you look at the GEFS, Euro, and EPS. I’m not saying it can’t happen but the GFS is out on its own right now suggesting a SW LA landfall.

Inconsistent? Maybe in strength.
The Euro has the same general idea as the 12z GFS on the steering forecast in it hooking a right towards LA after it either gets inland over TX, rides right along the TX coast or just offshore.

[NDG]

18z early models.

[Nederlander]

12Z GEFS ensemble mean is well west of the 12Z GFS.

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL94_2021091112_GEFS_large.png?1631381898

Yeah, interesting… it was that way with Ida the whole time too

[Clearcloudz]

12Z GEFS Ensemble Run

[Clearcloudz]

12Z NAVGEM similar to 12 GFS

[Clearcloudz]

12Z GEFS ensemble mean is well west of the 12Z GFS.

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL94_2021091112_GEFS_large.png?1631381898

Yeah, interesting… it was that way with Ida the whole time too

Is the GEFS mean performing better than the operational runs this year?

[hurricane2025]

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/stat ... 44320?s=21

[IcyTundra]

12Z GEFS ensemble mean is well west of the 12Z GFS.

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL94_2021091112_GEFS_large.png?1631381898

Yeah, interesting… it was that way with Ida the whole time too

Not sure but I remember with Ida the GEFS was constantly west of what the operational was showing and the GFS ended up being more accurate.

Is the GEFS mean performing better than the operational runs this year?

[Clearcloudz]

Yeah, interesting… it was that way with Ida the whole time too

Not sure but I remember with Ida the GEFS was constantly west of what the operational was showing and the GFS ended up being more accurate.

Is the GEFS mean performing better than the operational runs this year?

Once we actually get a solid center to track models will get in line with the track. At the moment landfall looks like corpus Christi area but could change further east depending on where the center forms

[Cpv17]

Not sure but I remember with Ida the GEFS was constantly west of what the operational was showing and the GFS ended up being more accurate.

Is the GEFS mean performing better than the operational runs this year?

Once we actually get a solid center to track models will get in line with the track. At the moment landfall looks like corpus Christi area but could change further east depending on where the center forms

I’m thinking right now a landfall anywhere between Baffin Bay and San Antonio Bay.

[Clearcloudz]

12 EPS Ensemble Run



EPS Control Ensemble Rainfall

[SoupBone]

If the GFS and Euro continue their eastern shifts, Houston might end up on the western side of this system. Tonight's runs will be interesting to see if that continues.

[Clearcloudz]

If the GFS and Euro continue their eastern shifts, Houston might end up on the western side of this system. Tonight's runs will be interesting to see if that continues.

Ensembles are showing system coming more inland versus previous runs showing it riding the coast not sure if anyone else has noticed this.

[IcyTundra]

If the GFS and Euro continue their eastern shifts, Houston might end up on the western side of this system. Tonight's runs will be interesting to see if that continues.

Furthest east I think this can realistically get is Cameron, LA would be nice for it to come in east of Houston, but I think the most likely scenario is somewhere along the Central Texas coast perhaps around Matagorda Bay.

[Cpv17]

12 EPS Ensemble Run

https://i.imgur.com/dtsL0dJ.gif

EPS Control Ensemble Rainfall

https://i.imgur.com/Xxsyy5d.png

Yeah, I’ve noticed that too.

[Clearcloudz]

18Z Icon Model Run

[Steve]

If the GFS and Euro continue their eastern shifts, Houston might end up on the western side of this system. Tonight's runs will be interesting to see if that continues.

Ensembles are showing system coming more inland versus previous runs showing it riding the coast not sure if anyone else has noticed this.

Yeah they do. We will see if the recent trend of ensembles being too far west continues or if their mean beats operational.

[Clearcloudz]

18Z GFS so far is a very interesting Run for Houston and surrounding peeps

Showing PWATS approaching 2.5 to 3 inches per hour as early as monday morning

[Clearcloudz]

[Clearcloudz]

Looks to be going towards Lake Charles LA