ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
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Clearcloudz
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Most of the rain remains offshore and towards Louisiana on this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
IcyTundra wrote:18Z GFS slight shift west
By maybe 15-20 miles on landfall, but between 50-80 hrs shifted a little to the right.
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Clearcloudz
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
18Z shows strong shear before landfall and none of the other models are showing this. Why isn't the potential for this storm to get stronger higher?
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wxman22
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
18Z HMON is more aggressive
Last edited by wxman22 on Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
IcyTundra wrote:HMON 987 MB landfall Corpus Christi.
The HMON brings it into deep central Texas, it appears to anyway. Run not done yet.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
SoupBone wrote:IcyTundra wrote:HMON 987 MB landfall Corpus Christi.
The HMON brings it into deep central Texas, it appears to anyway. Run not done yet.
It is a shift north from the 12Z run which took it into Northern Mexico.
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Clearcloudz
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ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
IcyTundra wrote:Clearcloudz wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
But there is shear waiting for it. And land interaction will be a factor too.
Dry air will also become a factor making the system more east weighted.
I haven't heard any pro mets talk about dry air being much of a factor so I'm not sure how much of an effect the dry air will have on it. Seems like wind shear will be the main thing holding this down.
18Z GFS shows eastward motion with sheer causing dry air to be entrained into the circulation.
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Clearcloudz
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
If 94L follows HMON solution then things are a little different because storm doesn't start moving east until after landfall which means less harsh conditions until landfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Cpv17 wrote:Anyone know what the 18z Euro showed?
Sloppy mess riding the coast going NW of Houston.
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Clearcloudz
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
SoupBone wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Anyone know what the 18z Euro showed?
Sloppy mess riding the coast going NW of Houston.
How much rainfall @soupbone?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Cpv17 wrote:Anyone know what the 18z Euro showed?
Not sure but this is the 18Z EPS. The ensemble mean shifted slightly further north and east closer to the West end of Matagorda Bay.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Clearcloudz wrote:SoupBone wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Anyone know what the 18z Euro showed?
Sloppy mess riding the coast going NW of Houston.
How much rainfall @soupbone?
It's hard for me to really zoom in on the map, but north of Conroe gets hammered with 10+, metro Houston looks like the 5-7" range, Matagorda also gets hammered with 10+. A good chuck of the rain stays offshore.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Clearcloudz
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
SoupBone wrote:Clearcloudz wrote:SoupBone wrote:
Sloppy mess riding the coast going NW of Houston.
How much rainfall @soupbone?
It's hard for me to really zoom in on the map, but north of Conroe gets hammered with 10+, metro Houston looks like the 5-7" range, Matagorda also gets hammered with 10+. A good chuck of the rain stays offshore.
Cool, I live in Rosenberg and I would be happy with 10 inches of rain my whole lawn has dried up and is turning yellow in spots. I'm holding off turning the sprinkler system on I'm counting on this system to dump some rain lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Clearcloudz wrote:SoupBone wrote:Clearcloudz wrote:
How much rainfall @soupbone?
It's hard for me to really zoom in on the map, but north of Conroe gets hammered with 10+, metro Houston looks like the 5-7" range, Matagorda also gets hammered with 10+. A good chuck of the rain stays offshore.
Cool, I live in Rosenberg and I would be happy with 10 inches of rain my whole lawn has dried up and is turning yellow in spots. I'm holding off turning the sprinkler system on I'm counting on this system to dump some rain lol.
I work in Rosenberg and live in between Wharton/El Campo. It’s been really dry at my job and my house lately. Grass is getting crispy.
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Just casually deepens almost 20 mb in 12 hours.
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Hmm, at 72 hours, it's due east of Galveston/Houston at 994mb. If the GFS is correct, most of the rain would seem to be offshore until it hits Louisiana. It rides the coast hard though.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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