ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[lrak]

Looks like recon is starting to see a little drop in pressure now.

Thanks GCANE, I was wondering about this since the BOC buoy is not changing but the winds there are strong.

[underthwx]

Man, this tropical storm that's forecasted might bring some seriously flooding rains...Look how it just crawls between Tuesday and Thursday.... Yikes!!!

Both GFS & EC have strong west wind across the upper TX coast (aloft) Tuesday. Drives the precip well east of the center into Louisiana on Tuesday. See the RH graphic on Levi's page:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021091212/gfs_midRH_scus_11.png

Which keeps the precipitation manageable for Harris, Brazoria Counties xman?

[GCANE]

Significantly NW where GFS has it.

[SoupBone]

Man, this tropical storm that's forecasted might bring some seriously flooding rains...Look how it just crawls between Tuesday and Thursday.... Yikes!!!

Both GFS & EC have strong west wind across the upper TX coast (aloft) Tuesday. Drives the precip well east of the center into Louisiana on Tuesday. See the RH graphic on Levi's page:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021091212/gfs_midRH_scus_11.png

Which keeps the precipitation manageable for Harris, Brazoria Counties xman?

If that verifies, I think it shows 5-10" over the Greater Houston area.

[Sciencerocks]

[ConvergenceZone]

Man, this tropical storm that's forecasted might bring some seriously flooding rains...Look how it just crawls between Tuesday and Thursday.... Yikes!!!

Both GFS & EC have strong west wind across the upper TX coast (aloft) Tuesday. Drives the precip well east of the center into Louisiana on Tuesday. See the RH graphic on Levi's page:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021091212/gfs_midRH_scus_11.png

Man, that's not good at all This means that Poor Louisiana gonna get big rains due to the slow movement of Nicholas...

[Texashawk]

Wasn’t there a hurricane that hit South Texas a few years ago that was literally eaten and dissipated within a few hours of landfall by the dry air surrounding it? I may be misremembering this; sorry if so. Is that a possibility with Nick?

[SoupBone]

Wasn’t there a hurricane that hit South Texas a few years ago that was literally eaten and dissipated within a few hours of landfall by the dry air surrounding it? I may be misremembering this; sorry if so. Is that a possibility with Nick?

I don't recall it being a hurricane, but there was a system that basically poofed when it hit the Texas dry air. I don't think that will be the case here, but that dry air will hopefully keep the intensity minimal.

[GCANE]

Looks about right for the feeder-band development.
Might see some good ramp-up after sunset.

[Portastorm]

Wasn’t there a hurricane that hit South Texas a few years ago that was literally eaten and dissipated within a few hours of landfall by the dry air surrounding it? I may be misremembering this; sorry if so. Is that a possibility with Nick?

I don't recall it being a hurricane, but there was a system that basically poofed when it hit the Texas dry air. I don't think that will be the case here, but that dry air will hopefully keep the intensity minimal.

Hurricane Don. 2011.

[jaguars_22]

Tropical storm don I believe was coming and then ummm evaporated

[cheezyWXguy]

Significantly NW where GFS has it.

Just looking at satellite, the circulation still looks elongated NW to SE to me. I am betting the final center consolidation point is still a little up in the air

[cheezyWXguy]

Wasn’t there a hurricane that hit South Texas a few years ago that was literally eaten and dissipated within a few hours of landfall by the dry air surrounding it? I may be misremembering this; sorry if so. Is that a possibility with Nick?

I don't recall it being a hurricane, but there was a system that basically poofed when it hit the Texas dry air. I don't think that will be the case here, but that dry air will hopefully keep the intensity minimal.

Hurricane Don. 2011.

Haha, good one

[SoupBone]

I don't recall it being a hurricane, but there was a system that basically poofed when it hit the Texas dry air. I don't think that will be the case here, but that dry air will hopefully keep the intensity minimal.

Hurricane Don. 2011.

Haha, good one

That's the one! It dropped like only an inch of rain in most spots, very minimal winds. It was so strange watching it dissipate in short order. Texas put a dry air boot on him and threw him out of Texas. I wish Nicholas would meet the same fate, but there are spots in Texas that need rain bad. I hope the dry air does its job, but the parts that need rain get a little taste of it. We don't want 15" in Houston, thank you.

[wkwally]

I remember Don very well as I was expecting a very busy day and night so I took a nap before land fall and I woke up and like what the Hell?

[underthwx]

Man, this tropical storm that's forecasted might bring some seriously flooding rains...Look how it just crawls between Tuesday and Thursday.... Yikes!!!

Both GFS & EC have strong west wind across the upper TX coast (aloft) Tuesday. Drives the precip well east of the center into Louisiana on Tuesday. See the RH graphic on Levi's page:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021091212/gfs_midRH_scus_11.png

Man, that's not good at all This means that Poor Louisiana gonna get big rains due to the slow movement of Nicholas...

True that....it seems inevitable there will be some unwelcome rainfall totals in the areas affected recently by Ida...

[tolakram]

Hurricane Don. 2011.

Haha, good one

That's the one! It dropped like only an inch of rain in most spots, very minimal winds. It was so strange watching it dissipate in short order. Texas put a dry air boot on him and threw him out of Texas. I wish Nicholas would meet the same fate, but there are spots in Texas that need rain bad. I hope the dry air does its job, but the parts that need rain get a little taste of it. We don't want 15" in Houston, thank you.

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 27.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/1800Z 28.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

NNNN

Someone did mention Don. Best last discussion ever, IMO

[aspen]

Is that an LLC swirl I see at 22.5N/95.0W?

[GCANE]

42 mm/hr rain rate.
Good chance it'll ramp up.

[xironman]

Wasn’t there a hurricane that hit South Texas a few years ago that was literally eaten and dissipated within a few hours of landfall by the dry air surrounding it? I may be misremembering this; sorry if so. Is that a possibility with Nick?

I don't recall it being a hurricane, but there was a system that basically poofed when it hit the Texas dry air. I don't think that will be the case here, but that dry air will hopefully keep the intensity minimal.

If you look at the GFS 700-400 RH you will see that the dry air does not affect the system until Tuesday morning. Lot of time between now and then.