ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

Wasn’t there a hurricane that hit South Texas a few years ago that was literally eaten and dissipated within a few hours of landfall by the dry air surrounding it? I may be misremembering this; sorry if so. Is that a possibility with Nick?

I don't recall it being a hurricane, but there was a system that basically poofed when it hit the Texas dry air. I don't think that will be the case here, but that dry air will hopefully keep the intensity minimal.

If you look at the GFS 700-400 RH you will see that the dry air does not affect the system until Tuesday morning. Lot of time between now and then.

It still has a lot of dry air around it right now.

[NDG]

I think I an LLC, near 22.4N 94.95W, or could be just an eddy rotating around the broad circulation, lets see if the recon flies through it.

[NDG]

I don't recall it being a hurricane, but there was a system that basically poofed when it hit the Texas dry air. I don't think that will be the case here, but that dry air will hopefully keep the intensity minimal.

If you look at the GFS 700-400 RH you will see that the dry air does not affect the system until Tuesday morning. Lot of time between now and then.

It still has a lot of dry air around it right now.

https://i.imgur.com/Eth1rAz.png

When looking at the WV satellite it matters when you look at the mid levels not at the upper levels where there is less moisture and has less affects on tropical system.

[kevin]

Haha, good one

That's the one! It dropped like only an inch of rain in most spots, very minimal winds. It was so strange watching it dissipate in short order. Texas put a dry air boot on him and threw him out of Texas. I wish Nicholas would meet the same fate, but there are spots in Texas that need rain bad. I hope the dry air does its job, but the parts that need rain get a little taste of it. We don't want 15" in Houston, thank you.

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 27.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/1800Z 28.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

NNNN

Someone did mention Don. Best last discussion ever, IMO

Haha that's definitely one of the best advisories I've seen. Maybe we should have a separate thread for these 'hall of fame' discussions just so we don't get too off-topic, but here's another one I liked, Epsilon in 2005.

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

AFTER A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT EPSILON HAS RESTRENGTHENED. THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE
SYMMETRIC AND THE RING OF CONVECTION IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY.
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS
BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THERE ARE
NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN
THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE
FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE
BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER
...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR.

EPSILON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...RUNNING AHEAD OF A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BUT SOON...ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL
MODELS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE
WHICH EVENTUALLY FORCE EPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD.
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS MOTION.
ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS ONCE IT MOVES TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW. I
HEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU?

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 34.3N 39.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 34.3N 37.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 34.0N 35.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 33.5N 33.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 06/1200Z 32.0N 33.5W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 36.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 08/1200Z 25.5N 39.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/1200Z 21.5N 44.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW


$$
NNNN

[SoupBone]

If you look at the GFS 700-400 RH you will see that the dry air does not affect the system until Tuesday morning. Lot of time between now and then.

It still has a lot of dry air around it right now.

https://i.imgur.com/Eth1rAz.png

When looking at the WV satellite it matters when you look at the mid levels not at the upper levels where there is less moisture.

Yeah I toggled both on for some reason.

[Teban54]

That's the one! It dropped like only an inch of rain in most spots, very minimal winds. It was so strange watching it dissipate in short order. Texas put a dry air boot on him and threw him out of Texas. I wish Nicholas would meet the same fate, but there are spots in Texas that need rain bad. I hope the dry air does its job, but the parts that need rain get a little taste of it. We don't want 15" in Houston, thank you.

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 27.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/1800Z 28.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

NNNN

Someone did mention Don. Best last discussion ever, IMO

Haha that's definitely one of the best advisories I've seen. Maybe we should have a separate thread for these 'hall of fame' discussions just so we don't get too off-topic, but here's another one I liked, Epsilon in 2005.

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

AFTER A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT EPSILON HAS RESTRENGTHENED. THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE
SYMMETRIC AND THE RING OF CONVECTION IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY.
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS
BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THERE ARE
NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN
THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE
FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE
BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER
...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR.

EPSILON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...RUNNING AHEAD OF A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BUT SOON...ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL
MODELS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE
WHICH EVENTUALLY FORCE EPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD.
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS MOTION.
ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS ONCE IT MOVES TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW. I
HEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU?

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 34.3N 39.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 34.3N 37.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 34.0N 35.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 33.5N 33.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 06/1200Z 32.0N 33.5W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 36.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 08/1200Z 25.5N 39.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/1200Z 21.5N 44.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW


$$
NNNN

There is one: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=119954
It's currently in the "Off-topic" forum, which is probably why there's less traffic, but I do think it should have been in Talkin' Tropics.

[wkwally]

What are the chances of warnings being moved farther north with this system. From what I have seen the storm is going to make land fall north of the warned areas ( knowing that this will be a coast hugger I understand the need for the warned areas). Also what are the chances of this becoming a low end hurricane?

[Teban54]

I think I an LLC, near 22.4N 94.95W, or could be just an eddy rotating around the broad circulation, lets see if the recon flies through it.

https://i.imgur.com/rTln9K9.gif

Recon shows the lowest pressure just to the SW of that, at 22.2N 95.45W.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Nicholas
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSHvcAO6-bQ

[NDG]

Convection building around that eddy, it could become the main CoC this afternoon.

[LadyBug72]

Convection building around that eddy, it could become the main CoC this afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/B4hYAm7.gif

Will this change the track? Lower rain totals for some parts of Texas?

[NDG]

Convection building around that eddy, it could become the main CoC this afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/B4hYAm7.gif

Will this change the track? Lower rain totals for some parts of Texas?

I am sure it will, it all depends where the main defined circulation gets going and how fast it moves north over the next 24 hrs before it starts feeling the SW steerings aloft.

[LadyBug72]

Convection building around that eddy, it could become the main CoC this afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/B4hYAm7.gif

Will this change the track? Lower rain totals for some parts of Texas?

I’m about 16 miles from Galveston but I have family and friends from Brownsville all the way to Nederland. I’m trying to keep us all informed. Thank you.
I am sure it will, it all depends where the main defined circulation gets going and how fast it moves north over the next 24 hrs before it starts feeling the SW steerings aloft.

[grapealcoholic]

Persistent -80s during DMIN

[NDG]

Clearly this Eddy is becoming the main LLC, heading almost due N, if it would had been rotating around the broader circulation to the SW it would had been heading NW.
The Recon did not go through it, it sampled the area SW of it before it stopped reporting 30 minutes ago.

[IcyTundra]

Expect several center reformations over the course of the day imo we could see some center reformations further east where most of the convection is.

[IcyTundra]

Clearly this Eddy is becoming the main LLC, heading almost due N, if it would had been rotating around the broader circulation to the SW it would had been heading NW.
The Recon did not go through it, it sampled the area SW of it before it stopped reporting 30 minutes ago.

https://i.imgur.com/SW3QfFk.gif

What is the long lat of where you think the LLC is?

[NDG]

Clearly this Eddy is becoming the main LLC, heading almost due N, if it would had been rotating around the broader circulation to the SW it would had been heading NW.
The Recon did not go through it, it sampled the area SW of it before it stopped reporting 30 minutes ago.

https://i.imgur.com/SW3QfFk.gif

What is the long lat of where you think the LLC is?

I have it near 22.8N & 95.15W

[IcyTundra]

What are the chances of warnings being moved farther north with this system. From what I have seen the storm is going to make land fall north of the warned areas ( knowing that this will be a coast hugger I understand the need for the warned areas). Also what are the chances of this becoming a low end hurricane?

The general consensus seems to be most likely a strong TS but it could realistically become a cat 1 hurricane.

[La Breeze]

Convection building around that eddy, it could become the main CoC this afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/B4hYAm7.gif

Will this change the track? Lower rain totals for some parts of Texas?

Will this mean higher rain totals for us in Louisiana?