ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

[IcyTundra]

Lets hope the Euro is wrong. I am honestly hoping for the GFS solution to be correct as even though it is stronger it is able to move out faster and have lower rain totals. We can handle 10 inches of rain and TS force winds here in Galveston County don't want this thing to just stall out like the euro shows.

[HouTXmetro]

60 inches? WOW

[underthwx]

60 inches? WOW

Where are you seeing that?.....

[HouTXmetro]

Look at a few post up. The latest EURO model rainfall estimate.

[Clearcloudz]

60 inches? WOW

Where are you seeing that?.....

[davidiowx]

[Tweet][/Tweet][url][/url]

60 inches? WOW

Where are you seeing that?.....

On the Euro run

[Steve]

60 inches? WOW

Where are you seeing that?.....

Previous page. Record I’ve seen for EC rainfall was over 100” (Austin for a run in I think Harvey) which obviously didn’t verify

[tolakram]

60 inches? WOW

Where are you seeing that?.....

Euro latest, total precip. Just one run, but certainly something to be concerned about.



Source: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/953-w-320-n/acc-total-precipitation/20210921-0600z.html

[aspen]

Between 61 inches from a west-shifted Nicholas and a far weaker Odette (the next MDR system), the 12z Euro run has clearly smoked something.

[Clearcloudz]

60 inches? WOW

Where are you seeing that?.....

Previous page. Record I’ve seen for EC rainfall was over 100” (Austin for a run in I think Harvey) which obviously didn’t verify

Now what happens if that max rainfall shifts a little east towards Houston proper region. Things will hit the fan real quick because Houston proper and surrounding regions are not ready for something like that 4 years after what happened to rebuild again.

[Clearcloudz]

60 inches? WOW

Where are you seeing that?.....

Euro latest, total precip. Just one run, but certainly something to be concerned about.

https://i.imgur.com/9eTdV3t.png

Source: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/953-w-320-n/acc-total-precipitation/20210921-0600z.html

Whats your opinion on this run @Tolakram any substance?

[tolakram]

Where are you seeing that?.....

Euro latest, total precip. Just one run, but certainly something to be concerned about.

https://i.imgur.com/9eTdV3t.png

Source: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/953-w-320-n/acc-total-precipitation/20210921-0600z.html

Whats your opinion on this run @Tolakram any substance?

Not qualified to make that determination. In cases of outliers I want to see a repeat before I believe it.

[Clearcloudz]

David Roth mentions that the EURO might be overdoing Precip totals

 https://twitter.com/DRmetwatch/status/1437127526506184704

[wkwally]

I just picked up a Euro model run showing a landfall in the Brownsville area.

[underthwx]

60 inches? WOW

Where are you seeing that?.....

Euro latest, total precip. Just one run, but certainly something to be concerned about.

https://i.imgur.com/9eTdV3t.png

Source: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/953-w-320-n/acc-total-precipitation/20210921-0600z.html

Is the Euro to you....a reliable model for cyclones?...I admit I am lacking knowledge of which model is the most reliable...so when I look at that model image...it's a definite concern....thankyou for your help and information..

[Steve]

Traditionally it has been the best of the best. Last year and this year, spotty.

[Clearcloudz]

12Z EURO Ensemble Control Model max rainfall 18 inches (Take data from all the ensembles and makes a average) does not agree with the 12 operational run.

[Nederlander]

Whew, RIP Schulenberg, La Grange, Flatonia on that model run. But certainly only one run and definitely an outlier in terms of overall precipitation.

For reference, the highest total rainfall for Harvey was 60.58 inches at the airport in Jefferson county, south of Beaumont. I just don’t see that type of setup here with that many days of training bands.

[SoupBone]

David Roth mentions that the EURO might be overdoing Precip totals

https://twitter.com/DRmetwatch/status/1437127526506184704

Not sure who this is, but I don't think that he's incorrect. The Euro seems to be on the very extreme high end of the rain forecast. No doubt someone will get a lot of rain, but those amounts seem unreasonable with this current setup.

[Clearcloudz]

David Roth mentions that the EURO might be overdoing Precip totals

https://twitter.com/DRmetwatch/status/1437127526506184704

Not sure who this is, but I don't think that he's incorrect. The Euro seems to be on the very extreme high end of the rain forecast. No doubt someone will get a lot of rain, but those amounts seem unreasonable with this current setup.

Yeah thats what he said in his tweet the EURO has a bias to overdo PWAT levels in past and that it can't be trusted in these types of setups.