#54 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:05 pm
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:AlphaToOmega wrote:cycloneye wrote:Bye.
Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located just
west of the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands has diminished since
this morning. Environmental conditions have become unfavorable,
and significant development of this system is no longer expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
A system that had tremendous model support, one that the NHC expected to develop, failed to the develop?
Why are our models so terrible? Why are our ensembles so terrible?
The models like to do that until a wave hits the water. We've been played like 100+ times since 2017 with this stuff.
It’s not like any of the models showed this become a strong system. At most, they showed a weak TS. 93L did try, but the future did not look great for it and it ultimately failed. I think there was a wave ahead of Larry’s precursor that emerged at a higher latitude but also failed despite modest model support.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.