ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

The LLC that I have tracking during the past 4 hrs, I have near 23.2N & 25.25W

[Garnetcat5]

NHC really sped up the forecast. Landfall west of Matagorda Bay 1am Tuesday. Consensus now at 6pm Monday for landfall there.

In Richmond Texas and oyster creek is 3 houses down. Maybe it’s time to leave? We made it through Harvey but with all the new construction i don’t know what will happen.

[sphelps8681]

The LLC that I have tracking during the past 4 hrs, I have near 23.2N & 25.25W

https://i.imgur.com/ovbvHSu.gif

How does this affect the track. More east or west? Or no change?

[HurricaneBrain]

Slightly east from your red x but yes. It’s obvious this is the dominant center...

The LLC that I have tracking during the past 4 hrs, I have near 23.2N & 25.25W

https://i.imgur.com/ovbvHSu.gif

[grapealcoholic]

The track is also somewhat dependent on how quick it can deepen

[hicksta]

Agreed… Lets see what recon finds

[NDG]

The LLC that I have tracking during the past 4 hrs, I have near 23.2N & 25.25W

https://i.imgur.com/ovbvHSu.gif

How does this affect the track. More east or west? Or no change?

It shouldn't affect it that much, IMO.
Unless it slows down and deepens a lot more than forecasted then it could feel the more the weakness to its NE and SW mid level winds when it approaches the TX Coast tomorrow.

[xironman]

Disco mentions an apparent center reformation farther north.

You have ask what "center reformation" means when a system has not had a consolidated center. Are they looking back to the future?

[Clearcloudz]

TEAL 72 is on its way shouldn't be too long before we get some official data and put this debate to rest.

[xironman]

Slightly east from your red x but yes. It’s obvious this is the dominant center...

The LLC that I have tracking during the past 4 hrs, I have near 23.2N & 25.25W

https://i.imgur.com/ovbvHSu.gif

I would go with south. There are too many low level clouds head south beneath the X

[grapealcoholic]

I would guess there's a tiny core embedded in that convection near the NHC center

[lrak]

The blob SW of the center is getting a curved look. and the center would seem to be west of the BOC buoy https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

[IcyTundra]

Models are in good agreement of a landfall near Matagorda Bay could be slightly east or west of Matagorda Bay, but that will be the general area.

[Garnetcat5]

Broad, elongated circulation. Still trying to get organized. I like 12Z Euro that takes it into NE Mexico then stalls east of San Antonio. Has 61+ inches of rain near La Grange. Last run had 25-30" just SW of Houston. GFS rain looks more reasonable. Still thinking moderate TS with only a small area of strong winds NE-E of the center making landfall near or just west of Matagorda Bay early Tuesday. Winds in Houston likely 20-30 mph with higher gusts in thunderstorms Tuesday.

Could that 61 inches come to Richmond Tx?

[jaguars_22]

Ok well I’m right smack dab to the north of matagorda bay (Victoria) I guess I should start prepping the house for 40mph winds?

[IcyTundra]

Broad, elongated circulation. Still trying to get organized. I like 12Z Euro that takes it into NE Mexico then stalls east of San Antonio. Has 61+ inches of rain near La Grange. Last run had 25-30" just SW of Houston. GFS rain looks more reasonable. Still thinking moderate TS with only a small area of strong winds NE-E of the center making landfall near or just west of Matagorda Bay early Tuesday. Winds in Houston likely 20-30 mph with higher gusts in thunderstorms Tuesday.

Could that 61 inches come to Richmond Tx?

61 inches is incredibly unlikely as only 1 model run has a bullseye of 60 inches. NWS Houston has Richmond getting 8-10 inches of rain could possibly be higher or lower but that is good estimate right now for the area.

[GCANE]

Seeing some pockets of intermittent 4000 CAPE in the convection.
Looks like this will go tonight.

[GCANE]

Increasing Surface-Based CAPE along the TEX- MEX border extending into the GOM with strong moisture convergence.
Good setup to track into.

upload pictures to get link

[Cpv17]

Ok well I’m right smack dab to the north of matagorda bay (Victoria) I guess I should start prepping the house for 40mph winds?

You’re west of Matagorda Bay. I’m north of there.

[jcmzhou]

With it slowing down over East texas, the big story may be delayed flooding downstream of the Trinity, Neches and Sabine River….all counties east of Houston