ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ChrisH-UK]

Nicholas looks to be feeding off the moisture and the heat growing in size but still disorganised. There's convective development which might help it with the outflow of 97E.

GOES-16 Proxy Visible + Clean IR, Source https://col.st/n2SsH

[SoupBone]

With it slowing down over East texas, the big story may be delayed flooding downstream of the Trinity, Neches and Sabine River….all counties east of Houston

Yeah if the GFS is correct, this is the rainfall for Houston over the entire event. It would not be fun, but it is fairly manageable for the area if the rain doesn't come in one giant downpour. Again, it still wouldn't be fun.

[ChrisH-UK]

With it slowing down over East texas, the big story may be delayed flooding downstream of the Trinity, Neches and Sabine River….all counties east of Houston

Nicholas stalling over Texas would put the Houston area in a bad situation with flooding like what happened with Harvey.

[NDG]

The LLC I have been tracking seems to have put the breaks on the last couple of hours on a northward heading, I have it near 23.3N & 25.4W, might be rotating around a larger circulation..

[wkwally]

From what I am seeing it is not going to surprize me if Nicholas will become a cat one hurricane before landfall. Maybe not so much as a wind event but very wet.

[NDG]

The recon gained some big time altitude when it went through that convection, they don't like to go through deep convection when there's shear involved.

[NDG]

Recon heading straight towards the LLC I have been tracking all afternoon. Deep convection over it.

[Clearcloudz]

National Weather Service Houston Video Discussion

[youtube]https://youtu.be/NCHlJ5LH0Yk[/youtube]

[NDG]

So far plenty of TS force winds on the NE of that LLC.

508
URNT15 KNHC 122301
AF305 0214A NICHOLAS HDOB 16 20210912
225130 2335N 09434W 8430 01575 0108 +159 //// 163037 038 035 007 01
225200 2334N 09435W 8428 01575 0108 +160 //// 164038 039 037 006 01
225230 2333N 09436W 8431 01573 0106 +161 //// 159040 041 036 007 01
225300 2332N 09437W 8431 01573 0101 +168 +164 162039 039 038 005 03
225330 2331N 09439W 8429 01575 0102 +167 +161 164040 040 038 005 00
225400 2330N 09440W 8432 01571 0101 +168 +157 163040 041 035 005 00
225430 2329N 09441W 8426 01577 0101 +165 +159 162040 040 035 003 00
225500 2328N 09443W 8433 01569 0101 +167 +164 161039 040 035 003 00
225530 2327N 09444W 8430 01572 0102 +164 //// 161040 041 034 003 01
225600 2326N 09445W 8428 01575 0102 +164 //// 159037 040 034 003 01
225630 2325N 09446W 8429 01574 0101 +166 //// 160034 036 035 002 01
225700 2324N 09448W 8429 01573 0100 +170 +162 159035 035 036 002 00
225730 2323N 09449W 8429 01572 0099 +170 +159 160036 036 034 003 00
225800 2322N 09450W 8430 01572 0098 +170 +160 162035 036 034 004 00
225830 2321N 09452W 8431 01569 0098 +169 +161 161036 036 033 004 00
225900 2320N 09453W 8430 01569 0095 +170 +160 161035 036 035 003 00
225930 2320N 09454W 8428 01573 0095 +171 +162 162036 036 036 001 03
230000 2319N 09456W 8430 01569 0095 +171 +155 158038 039 035 001 00
230030 2318N 09457W 8429 01572 0096 +170 +154 157038 039 035 002 00
230100 2317N 09458W 8430 01571 0096 +170 +156 157037 038 035 002 00
$$

[GCANE]

Satellite indicating very high rain rate now developing in the convection

[xironman]

Sorry Euro, not going south of the border.

[GCANE]

Seeing a good section of the mid GOM at 4000 CAPE

[Iceresistance]

Latest Tropical Tidbits on Nicholas

[youtube]https://youtu.be/VpbNG3HfdEM[/youtube]

[mpic]

Jeff Lindner is going live at 8:30pm CDT
https://fb.me/e/1NdNw5I0Y

[NDG]

Well, what I thought was the main LLC appears to be just an eddy rotating around a broader circulation.

URNT15 KNHC 122311
AF305 0214A NICHOLAS HDOB 17 20210912
230130 2316N 09459W 8429 01571 0094 +171 +159 157035 037 035 002 00
230200 2315N 09501W 8428 01571 0094 +171 +163 158033 034 034 005 00
230230 2314N 09502W 8429 01569 0103 +155 //// 157033 034 034 008 01
230300 2313N 09503W 8429 01569 0096 +167 +163 155034 035 034 004 00
230330 2312N 09505W 8430 01569 0093 +173 +156 157033 034 035 003 00
230400 2311N 09506W 8432 01564 0095 +163 //// 160031 032 035 004 01
230430 2310N 09507W 8433 01567 0094 +170 +163 157030 030 033 004 00
230500 2309N 09509W 8429 01569 0093 +173 +152 160030 031 034 001 00
230530 2308N 09510W 8430 01568 0093 +175 +149 162028 029 032 001 00
230600 2307N 09511W 8433 01563 0094 +170 +154 161030 032 033 001 00
230630 2306N 09513W 8429 01568 0091 +174 +148 162028 029 033 001 00
230700 2305N 09514W 8431 01567 0092 +173 +156 161028 028 033 001 00
230730 2304N 09515W 8431 01566 0091 +173 +164 163026 027 034 000 00
230800 2303N 09517W 8429 01568 0089 +175 +161 161025 026 033 000 00
230830 2302N 09518W 8430 01566 0088 +175 +161 162022 024 033 001 00
230900 2301N 09519W 8430 01567 0090 +175 +166 161022 024 033 001 00
230930 2300N 09521W 8432 01566 0089 +174 +162 160022 023 032 001 00
231000 2259N 09522W 8429 01567 0088 +174 +162 165023 024 033 001 00
231030 2258N 09523W 8432 01563 0088 +174 +163 168021 022 033 000 00
231100 2257N 09525W 8429 01567 0086 +177 +155 169020 021 033 000 00
$$

[tropicwatch]

The outflow of Nicholas is very impressive for a tropical storm.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/GM/13/GOES16-GM-13-1000x1000.gif

[GCANE]

That continuous firing tower is spewing some nice cirrus and heavy rain rate.
Recon is diving right in it.
Pressure is falling.

[NDG]

That continuous firing tower is spewing some nice cirrus and heavy rain rate.
Recon is diving right in it.
Pressure is falling.

The recon is actually going around the convection to the south.

[GCANE]

They just skirted the south flank of the tower

[Zonacane]

That continuous firing tower is spewing some nice cirrus and heavy rain rate.
Recon is diving right in it.
Pressure is falling.

Nice looking vortical hot tower. That’ll help tighten up