ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

[Clearcloudz]

The reason why the GFS is showing less rainfall is because it doesn’t stall it out like the Euro does.

It's interesting how that's such a major difference in the two right now. The GFS zips it on out of here.

Yeah, huge difference. The EPS also has many members that stall it out or move it very slowly as well.

Even GEFS run show a decent amount of members stalling once moving inland. @soupbone I'm not saying EURO is correct on rainfall but it might be correct on stalling part and we just don't know 100 percent yet.

[Cpv17]

It's interesting how that's such a major difference in the two right now. The GFS zips it on out of here.

Yeah, huge difference. The EPS also has many members that stall it out or move it very slowly as well.

Even GEFS run show a decent amount of members stalling once moving inland. @soupbone I'm not saying EURO is correct on rainfall but it might be correct on stalling part and we just don't know 100 percent yet.
https://i.imgur.com/YEZjlhE.gif

Oh wow, that’s interesting. I haven’t even looked at the GEFS yet. It seems like the NHC track has it stalling or moving very slowly too but much further north.

[Clearcloudz]

Yeah, huge difference. The EPS also has many members that stall it out or move it very slowly as well.

Even GEFS run show a decent amount of members stalling once moving inland. @soupbone I'm not saying EURO is correct on rainfall but it might be correct on stalling part and we just don't know 100 percent yet.
https://i.imgur.com/YEZjlhE.gif

Oh wow, that’s interesting. I haven’t even looked at the GEFS yet. It seems like the NHC track has it stalling or moving very slowly too but much further north.

Yeah track changes will be coming once the 00Z runs come in NHC needs to see how much substance this stalling has once the 00Z runs show consistency

[SoupBone]

Yeah, huge difference. The EPS also has many members that stall it out or move it very slowly as well.

Even GEFS run show a decent amount of members stalling once moving inland. @soupbone I'm not saying EURO is correct on rainfall but it might be correct on stalling part and we just don't know 100 percent yet.
https://i.imgur.com/YEZjlhE.gif

Oh wow, that’s interesting. I haven’t even looked at the GEFS yet. It seems like the NHC track has it stalling or moving very slowly too but much further north.

That would also change where the most rain will fall. At this point, it's likely someone will get a lot of rain, but it's a complete crap shoot as to where.

[Clearcloudz]

Even GEFS run show a decent amount of members stalling once moving inland. @soupbone I'm not saying EURO is correct on rainfall but it might be correct on stalling part and we just don't know 100 percent yet.
https://i.imgur.com/YEZjlhE.gif

Oh wow, that’s interesting. I haven’t even looked at the GEFS yet. It seems like the NHC track has it stalling or moving very slowly too but much further north.

That would also change where the most rain will fall. At this point, it's likely someone will get a lot of rain, but it's a complete crap shoot as to where.

Hey Soup let us know what the 18Z EURO shows once it comes in.

[Clearcloudz]

18Z HWRF has to be a joke lol

[tolakram]

The GFS was bad with Harvey early on and had the LLC moving inland and west for the longest time. The NHC shows a depression slowing down so I think a slow storm with more precip than the GFS predicts is possible. I doubt it's as much as the euro shows.

[SoupBone]

Oh wow, that’s interesting. I haven’t even looked at the GEFS yet. It seems like the NHC track has it stalling or moving very slowly too but much further north.

That would also change where the most rain will fall. At this point, it's likely someone will get a lot of rain, but it's a complete crap shoot as to where.

Hey Soup let us know what the 18Z EURO shows once it comes in.

18 hours making landfall as a sloppy mess on the Tex/Mex border.

21 hours pressure at 1014mb at the tip of South Texas.

24 hours starting to skirt the coast, very sloppy system.

27 hours starting tighten up at 1007 mb.

30 hours riding the coast due south of Corpus Christi at 1001mb.

[tolakram]

18 Z euro border landfall

[catskillfire51]

18 Z euro border landfall

https://i.imgur.com/4qymZ6K.png

Looks like a very slight shift East but nothing drastic so far

[SoupBone]

at 36 hours it's due west of Matagorda by about 40 miles at 1001mb.

It's moving very slowly.

[catskillfire51]

Correction, decent shift east from 30-39 hours

[tolakram]

34h

[SoupBone]

At 48 hours it's very slowly moving north. Can't see the mb but it's sloppy. It's over San Marcos.

At 54 hours it's over Austin or close to it, slowly moving NNE.

[catskillfire51]

At 48 hours it's very slowly moving north. Can't see the mb but it's sloppy. It's over San Marcos.

At 54 hours it's over Austin or close to it, slowly moving NNE.

1004MB

[SoupBone]

63 hours west of Houston by about 30 miles, pressure at 1024mb.

69 hours, here comes the stall.

[tolakram]

53h precip

[SoupBone]

72 hours still sitting west of Houston.

[SoupBone]

81 hours, sitting slightly west of Houston but some of it would be right on top of the area. 84 hours, still there. So that would be 20 hours of rain on Houston.

[tolakram]