ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[IcyTundra]

If the center stays in the area of where the HH's are currently finding it. I have my doubts of it actually making it to Texas. That would possibly allow extreme southern Texas to get some rain.

Idk NHC usually isn't very far off this close to landfall Nicholas making landfall near the TX/Mexico border over 100 miles south of where the NHC has it currently making landfall would certainly be something.

[SoupBone]

Looking at WV, and actually I don't think shear is that high at all right now. Probably <10 kts

Shear within the last 3 hours.

[tropicwatch]

If the center stays in the area of where the HH's are currently finding it. I have my doubts of it actually making it to Texas. That would possibly allow extreme southern Texas to get some rain.

Idk NHC usually isn't very far off this close to landfall Nicholas making landfall near the TX/Mexico border over 100 miles south of where the NHC has it currently making landfall would certainly be something.

Developing systems can be very fickled creatures. Nothing set in stone as of yet.

[Rgv20]

Levi's take on TS Nicholas.....He has always been very knowledgeable regarding Tropical Weather.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/VpbNG3HfdEM[/youtube]

[grapealcoholic]

Feature near 24/95.5 looks interesting and seems to have some spin

[wxman57]

18Z GFS has 8-10" rain in south Houston but all rain over by sunrise Tuesday with dry air flowing in.

[Rgv20]

If the center stays in the area of where the HH's are currently finding it. I have my doubts of it actually making it to Texas. That would possibly allow extreme southern Texas to get some rain.

Idk NHC usually isn't very far off this close to landfall Nicholas making landfall near the TX/Mexico border over 100 miles south of where the NHC has it currently making landfall would certainly be something.

Developing systems can be very fickled creatures. Nothing set in stone as of yet.

Not only that the angle of approach is very tricky...50 miles west or east of the track makes a huge difference when is paralleling the NE Coast all the way to the Mid Texas Coast.

[InfernoFlameCat]

We could see something like Barry make landfall except the convection is displaced to the north. #Uglycane.

[SoupBone]

18Z GFS has 8-10" rain in south Houston but all rain over by sunrise Tuesday with dry air flowing in.

Yeah I posted that earlier. I'm not usually a model hugger but I'd rather the GFS than the Euro right now.

[dpep4]

If the center stays in the area of where the HH's are currently finding it. I have my doubts of it actually making it to Texas. That would possibly allow extreme southern Texas to get some rain.

Idk NHC usually isn't very far off this close to landfall Nicholas making landfall near the TX/Mexico border over 100 miles south of where the NHC has it currently making landfall would certainly be something.

The current NHC track comes within 15 miles of the TX/Mex border beaches, about halfway between the cone center and its western edge. Just a small deviation or center relocation could result in a technical Mexico landfall.

[grapealcoholic]

Feature near 24/95.5 looks interesting and seems to have some spin

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KBRO2/2021/09/13/KBRO20210913004558.png

Deep convection firing in the same spot now too

[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1437222745683767298

[InfernoFlameCat]

Feature near 24/95.5 looks interesting and seems to have some spin

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KBRO2/2021/09/13/KBRO20210913004558.png

Deep convection firing in the same spot now too

Thats the center btw.

[grapealcoholic]

Feature near 24/95.5 looks interesting and seems to have some spin

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KBRO2/2021/09/13/KBRO20210913004558.png

Deep convection firing in the same spot now too

Thats the center btw.

To be clear, that's nowhere near where recon fixed the center. But I agree

[Smurfwicked]

Idk NHC usually isn't very far off this close to landfall Nicholas making landfall near the TX/Mexico border over 100 miles south of where the NHC has it currently making landfall would certainly be something.

Developing systems can be very fickled creatures. Nothing set in stone as of yet.

Not only that the angle of approach is very tricky...50 miles west or east of the track makes a huge difference when is paralleling the NE Coast all the way to the Mid Texas Coast.

My thoughts exactly when 100 miles south only means 40 or so miles west. 2 days out I would fully expect a general consensus with the direction but my concerns are more how far inland does it get before it curves and does it significantly slow down cause we've seen a core be completely dry being inland while still pumping long streamers of heavy rainfall over same area east of center.

From my memory of Harvey's effects on southeast texas it went something like Houston got the heavy rain one night and then during the day the storm dried out only to re-ignite the next night and dump heavy rains west of beaumont/east of houston. Then it dried out again the following day and re-ignited again on the 3rd night and hit beaumont/port arthur hard. Sure it rained during those dry days but it was manageable, the heavier 4+"/hr rates happen for the most part overnight.

[IcyTundra]

TVCN shifted slightly further east for the 18Z runs expect the NHC to mostly keep the current forecast track as it is or a very slight shift east at the 10 PM advisory.

[Nimbus]

Recon finding all the green wind barbs displaced NE with surface pressure about 1008 mb's.
Shear forecast remains unfavorable so Beaumont might end up getting higher rain totals than Houston but even there, the 10 inch precip accumulation forecast sounded more reasonable to me.

[sphelps8681]

Recon finding all the green wind barbs displaced NE with surface pressure about 1008 mb's.
Shear forecast remains unfavorable so Beaumont might end up getting higher rain totals than Houston but even there, the 10 inch precip accumulation forecast sounded more reasonable to me.

I am N of Beaumont just slightly and that is what they are forecasting for my area. 10-15.

[grapealcoholic]

Tight core. Spicy

[hipshot]

TVCN shifted slightly further east for the 18Z runs expect the NHC to mostly keep the current forecast track as it is or a very slight shift east at the 10 PM advisory.

I have to drive from Dallas to Austin Thursday, I think most of this will have moved east by then, any thoughts?