ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[IcyTundra]

TVCN shifted slightly further east for the 18Z runs expect the NHC to mostly keep the current forecast track as it is or a very slight shift east at the 10 PM advisory.

I have to drive from Dallas to Austin Thursday, I think most of this will have moved east by then, any thoughts?

Thursday the worst of the rain should be in Louisiana you should be fine.

[Iceresistance]

Deep convection firing in the same spot now too

Thats the center btw.

To be clear, that's nowhere near where recon fixed the center. But I agree

Recon could be going after the old & decaying circulation, I'm thinking that when they fly north towards base is when they are going to find the New CoC

[aspen]

Thats the center btw.

To be clear, that's nowhere near where recon fixed the center. But I agree

Recon could be going after the old & decaying circulation, I'm thinking that when they fly north towards base is when they are going to find the New CoC

Since there seem to be multiple eddies within a broad rotating circulation, one of those could become dominant under the deep convection. This weak LLC won’t survive for much longer being so displaced from any convection.

[grapealcoholic]

To be clear, that's nowhere near where recon fixed the center. But I agree

Recon could be going after the old & decaying circulation, I'm thinking that when they fly north towards base is when they are going to find the New CoC

Since there seem to be multiple eddies within a broad rotating circulation, one of those could become dominant under the deep convection. This weak LLC won’t survive for much longer being so displaced from any convection.

It looks nasty on radar

[Sciencerocks]

[grapealcoholic]

[ElectricStorm]

My personal prediction for landfall intensity right now is 65kts, mainly due to how disorganized Nick is at the moment. Could be stronger than that if it gets organized quicker and tracks further east, but it could be lower if it tracks further west and interacts with land quicker. If one of those starts to happen I will adjust accordingly but I think 65kts is a good safe prediction in between the two. Of course the rainfall/flood threat is the much bigger issue here.

Not an official forecast of course.

[jasons2k]

I’ve been thinking Matagorda since I woke-up and did my first run through on the weather. I see no reason to change my thinking yet. I didn’t post - I just got to work.

Spent the day blowing off the roof, cleaning out the gutters and connecting my downspouts to the new drainage system that runs to the street. I covered my new catch drains with beach pebble - good sized rock. Hauling rock around was actually kinda fun for me - I like working outside and it’s a free workout.

I also cleaned-out the cylinder rain gauge. We are ready for the rain.

[ROCK]

I’ve been thinking Matagorda since I woke-up and did my first run through on the weather. I see no reason to change my thinking yet. I didn’t post - I just got to work.

Spent the day blowing off the roof, cleaning out the gutters and connecting my downspouts to the new drainage system that runs to the street. I covered my new catch drains with beach pebble - good sized rock. Hauling rock around was actually kinda fun for me - I like working outside and it’s a free workout.

I also cleaned-out the cylinder rain gauge. We are ready for the rain.

Agree with that matagorda landfall. COC will relocate .

[wxman57]

TVCN shifted slightly further east for the 18Z runs expect the NHC to mostly keep the current forecast track as it is or a very slight shift east at the 10 PM advisory.

I have to drive from Dallas to Austin Thursday, I think most of this will have moved east by then, any thoughts?

I see no issue at all.

[tropicwatch]

Looking like HH's finding a center more along the lines with the forecast track at this time.

[ElectricStorm]

Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[IcyTundra]

Hurricane Watch extended eastward to Freeport

[grapealcoholic]

Eastward shift

[wxman57]

NHC adjusted the track to eastern Matagorda Bay then straight over Houston. That would increase the heavy rain threat east of Houston to BPT/LCH. Would be better for Houston area as far as rainfall. Ok, bed time. Getting up 4:30 am or so.

[IcyTundra]

Looks like the NHC shifted a bit east.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The band to the north of Nicholas could possibly offset the shear by disrupting the air current imparted by the trough over Louisiana. such intense convection can really be a shield for the tropical system. But, 40knots of shear is very intense.

Look at that. Almost no shear present behind that wall of convection band but north of it those upper level clouds are really being pulled north. This might give enough time for Nicholas to RI if that convective blob that I think is the center continue to organize.

[jaguars_22]

What happened to made that drastic change east?

[Cpv17]

What happened to made that drastic change east?

Probably a center relocation. Sucks for me and you.

[NDG]

Recon shows reformation further north, unflagged 54 knot flight level winds.

709
URNT15 KNHC 130310
AF305 0214A NICHOLAS HDOB 41 20210913
030130 2434N 09600W 8425 01568 //// +150 //// 147037 037 041 015 01
030200 2435N 09558W 8426 01569 //// +150 //// 150041 043 040 009 01
030230 2437N 09557W 8427 01569 //// +151 //// 146042 043 039 010 01
030300 2438N 09556W 8426 01574 //// +153 //// 143044 045 042 010 01
030330 2439N 09554W 8433 01568 //// +151 //// 145049 050 043 015 01
030400 2440N 09553W 8416 01586 //// +143 //// 149050 051 048 024 01
030430 2441N 09552W 8436 01566 //// +140 //// 146050 053 047 041 01
030500 2442N 09551W 8431 01573 //// +139 //// 148050 051 045 033 01
030530 2444N 09549W 8422 01585 //// +145 //// 151049 051 042 014 01
030600 2445N 09548W 8428 01580 //// +147 //// 151049 051 041 009 01
030630 2446N 09547W 8431 01579 0119 +153 //// 150047 048 038 008 01
030700 2447N 09545W 8426 01585 0121 +150 //// 148048 049 039 008 05
030730 2448N 09544W 8429 01583 //// +146 //// 145047 048 039 011 05
030800 2449N 09543W 8428 01585 //// +148 //// 142046 049 041 020 01
030830 2450N 09542W 8423 01591 //// +148 //// 138046 054 043 026 05
030900 2452N 09540W 8434 01577 //// +150 //// 150051 055 036 006 01
030930 2453N 09539W 8428 01588 0116 +165 //// 150051 051 037 006 01
031000 2454N 09538W 8428 01587 0118 +162 +157 149054 054 034 009 00
031030 2455N 09536W 8425 01589 0120 +159 +158 154052 054 039 009 00
031100 2456N 09535W 8425 01591 0125 +155 //// 153044 051 042 012 01
$$
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