ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#381 Postby grapealcoholic » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:15 pm

NDG wrote:Recon shows reformation further north, unflagged 54 knot flight level winds.

709
URNT15 KNHC 130310
AF305 0214A NICHOLAS HDOB 41 20210913
030130 2434N 09600W 8425 01568 //// +150 //// 147037 037 041 015 01
030200 2435N 09558W 8426 01569 //// +150 //// 150041 043 040 009 01
030230 2437N 09557W 8427 01569 //// +151 //// 146042 043 039 010 01
030300 2438N 09556W 8426 01574 //// +153 //// 143044 045 042 010 01
030330 2439N 09554W 8433 01568 //// +151 //// 145049 050 043 015 01
030400 2440N 09553W 8416 01586 //// +143 //// 149050 051 048 024 01
030430 2441N 09552W 8436 01566 //// +140 //// 146050 053 047 041 01
030500 2442N 09551W 8431 01573 //// +139 //// 148050 051 045 033 01
030530 2444N 09549W 8422 01585 //// +145 //// 151049 051 042 014 01
030600 2445N 09548W 8428 01580 //// +147 //// 151049 051 041 009 01
030630 2446N 09547W 8431 01579 0119 +153 //// 150047 048 038 008 01
030700 2447N 09545W 8426 01585 0121 +150 //// 148048 049 039 008 05
030730 2448N 09544W 8429 01583 //// +146 //// 145047 048 039 011 05
030800 2449N 09543W 8428 01585 //// +148 //// 142046 049 041 020 01
030830 2450N 09542W 8423 01591 //// +148 //// 138046 054 043 026 05
030900 2452N 09540W 8434 01577 //// +150 //// 150051 055 036 006 01
030930 2453N 09539W 8428 01588 0116 +165 //// 150051 051 037 006 01
031000 2454N 09538W 8428 01587 0118 +162 +157 149054 054 034 009 00
031030 2455N 09536W 8425 01589 0120 +159 +158 154052 054 039 009 00
031100 2456N 09535W 8425 01591 0125 +155 //// 153044 051 042 012 01
$$
;

Bombing
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#382 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:18 pm

Yeah, that may require a special advisory with an intensity of 45-50 kt AND a significant track adjustment.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#383 Postby loon » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:19 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Yeah, that may require a special advisory with an intensity of 45-50 kt AND a significant track adjustment.


An advisory on top of the 10pm?
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#384 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:20 pm

That's one heck of a center reformation

Image
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#385 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:20 pm

Not liking the east shifts at all, that's just gonna give it more time over water. The angle of the land could also help tighten it up near landfall. If that center relocation is verified, which it looks like it will be, I'm gonna have to adjust my intensity prediction upwards, but I'll wait until I see what it looks like in the morning. Could be a pretty big change if it starts developing an inner core by then.

I was already pretty concerned about this. Now I'm even more concerned :eek:

Also if the center is that far north, landfall will be much earlier and there won't be much prep time
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#386 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:20 pm

loon wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Yeah, that may require a special advisory with an intensity of 45-50 kt AND a significant track adjustment.


An advisory on top of the 10pm?


Correct. It would be a new full advisory around 11 pm if confirmed. Center looks to be at 24.2N 96.1W, and intensity will need to be significantly increased.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#387 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:21 pm

IcyTundra wrote:Looks like the NHC shifted a bit east.



Quite a bit. So now we're back to Houston getting a little rain, but now TS winds over the area. :lol:

We won't get out of this one either way.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#388 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:21 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Yeah, that may require a special advisory with an intensity of 45-50 kt AND a significant track adjustment.

Was just about to mention what the recon was finding. A little bit of a surprise. Unfortunately the next recon doesn't take off until 0415 central time. The current mission has an hour or so left.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#389 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:22 pm

New CoC near 24.4N & 96.2W

Image
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#390 Postby hurricane2025 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:23 pm

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#391 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:23 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Not liking the east shifts at all, that's just gonna give it more time over water. The angle of the land could also help tighten it up near landfall. If that center relocation is verified, which it looks like it will be, I'm gonna have to adjust my intensity prediction upwards, but I'll wait until I see what it looks like in the morning. Could be a pretty big change if it starts developing an inner core by then.

I was already pretty concerned about this. Now I'm even more concerned :eek:

Also if the center is that far north, landfall will be much earlier and there won't be much prep time


All watches would have to become warnings in that case, since the landfall time would be moved up about 12 hours. If that center is confirmed, this would definitely require a Special Advisory with a whole new everything.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#392 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:26 pm

NDG wrote:New CoC near 24.4N & 96.2W

https://i.imgur.com/MVq1NFh.jpg

Remember that little eddy from earlier? that you spotted? yeah that eddy really got its act together lol. Nice job!
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#393 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:27 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Not liking the east shifts at all, that's just gonna give it more time over water. The angle of the land could also help tighten it up near landfall. If that center relocation is verified, which it looks like it will be, I'm gonna have to adjust my intensity prediction upwards, but I'll wait until I see what it looks like in the morning. Could be a pretty big change if it starts developing an inner core by then.

I was already pretty concerned about this. Now I'm even more concerned :eek:

Also if the center is that far north, landfall will be much earlier and there won't be much prep time


All watches would have to become warnings in that case, since the landfall time would be moved up about 12 hours. If that center is confirmed, this would definitely require a Special Advisory with a whole new everything.


I'm not following, a whole new everything? They would definitely adjust the track but it seems intensity would be a question mark still. The forecast is for 40+ knots of shear over it as it gets closer to the coast.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#394 Postby Hurricane Mike » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:28 pm

I'm gonna say this tries to crank to a cane right at the coast. It may not make it but I think it'll try.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#395 Postby grapealcoholic » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:29 pm

Hurricane Mike wrote:I'm gonna say this tries to crank to a cane right at the coast. It may not make it but I think it'll try.

It's gonna try to crank into a cane tonight
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#396 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:30 pm

That radar presentation is vicious with that new center. My apologies I cannot post it I am looking on my phone using radarscope.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#397 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:30 pm

SoupBone wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Not liking the east shifts at all, that's just gonna give it more time over water. The angle of the land could also help tighten it up near landfall. If that center relocation is verified, which it looks like it will be, I'm gonna have to adjust my intensity prediction upwards, but I'll wait until I see what it looks like in the morning. Could be a pretty big change if it starts developing an inner core by then.

I was already pretty concerned about this. Now I'm even more concerned :eek:

Also if the center is that far north, landfall will be much earlier and there won't be much prep time


All watches would have to become warnings in that case, since the landfall time would be moved up about 12 hours. If that center is confirmed, this would definitely require a Special Advisory with a whole new everything.


I'm not following, a whole new everything? They would definitely adjust the track but it seems intensity would be a question mark still. The forecast is for 40+ knots of shear over it as it gets closer to the coast.


It will possibly strengthen into a cat 1 but then begin to weaken close to landfall due to shear.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#398 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:30 pm

Hurricane Mike wrote:I'm gonna say this tries to crank to a cane right at the coast. It may not make it but I think it'll try.

If the SFMR is real then it's only 10-15kts away from Cat 1 right now and could be close to Cat 1 by morning
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#399 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:32 pm

Shear within the last 3 hours.

Image
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#400 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:32 pm

Getting fairly well defined on radar.

Image
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