ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[IcyTundra]

The center reformation will cause it to make landfall further east correct?

[ElectricStorm]

Shear within the last 3 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/WPTc32o.gif

Yeah but it's going to be moving in the same direction as the shear so it won't have as much of an impact on it IMO

[SoupBone]

Shear within the last 3 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/WPTc32o.gif

Yeah but it's going to be moving in the same direction as the shear so it won't have as much of an impact on it IMO

That goes counter to every forecast within the last several days. Shear and some dry air are the only things that's supposed to be keeping it in check.

[grapealcoholic]

The early tell was the impressive convection. It always is

[jaguars_22]

I still believe this thing comes ashore at San Antonio bay. If the gfs stays the same then I’m still preparing for a hit on Victoria.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1437259066729013254

[ElectricStorm]

Shear within the last 3 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/WPTc32o.gif

Yeah but it's going to be moving in the same direction as the shear so it won't have as much of an impact on it IMO

That goes counter to every forecast within the last several days. Shear and some dry air are the only things that's supposed to be keeping it in check.

Well yeah it'll keep in in check somewhat, as in preventing it from exploding, but if it moves in the same direction as the shear, it won't suffer as much as it normally would in shear that high. Might hit some dry air at the coast

[HurricaneBrain]

I TRIED telling everyone this. It’s even more obvious now. SWLA needs to watch this as well.

I think we have a new center that is much further north. Cone might shift west in alignment with model guidance but latest models have the center initialized much further south than the new CoC I’m seeing on satellite.

[Blown Away]

24.2N/96.1W, if that is the new COC that’s a big jump N and a little W of the NHC track? Maybe an track adjustment a little W?

[chaser1]

I've seen a slab of Boar's Head Headcheese at my Publix deli that looked more like a tropical storm then this mosh-pit does. I was honestly surprised when this was tagged "Nicholas" and thought then why not go with the PTC label. Yes, it has plenty of sustained winds and plenty of westerly inflow but never a fairly defined LLC.

[ElectricStorm]

Recon confirmed it. Looks like they're going back in. We'll probably see a special advisory soon

[jaguars_22]

Blown away that’s what I’m thinking the gfs did pick up the center reformation and still made it closer to my area. I still think corpus to matagorda

[grapealcoholic]

24.2N/96.1W, if that is the new COC that’s a big jump N and a little W of the NHC track? Maybe an track adjustment a little W?

No because it's deepening and upper level winds are out of the southwest

[IcyTundra]

24.2N/96.1W, if that is the new COC that’s a big jump N and a little W of the NHC track? Maybe an track adjustment a little W?

Actually further east I think but I'm not sure.

[HurricaneBrain]

I agree. No surprise. This northern reformation has been in the works for hours now.

Recon confirmed it. Looks like they're going back in. We'll probably see a special advisory soon
https://i.imgur.com/VAWgG1j.png

[grapealcoholic]

It's straight up bombing on radar

[InfernoFlameCat]

Anyone else interested in the massive hot tower well to the south/south east of the storm? I mean wow.

[jaguars_22]

Latest gfs tad west landfall

[ElectricStorm]

I agree. No surprise. This northern reformation has been in the works for hours now.

Recon confirmed it. Looks like they're going back in. We'll probably see a special advisory soon
https://i.imgur.com/VAWgG1j.png

Yeah. With the jump in intensity they'll probably have to put up hurricane warnings as well

[ROCK]

Isn’t amazing what 32C untouched bath tub water can do in such a small amount of time. Not surprised at all