ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[grapealcoholic]

New tower trying to wrap

[IcyTundra]

New shear chart.

https://i.imgur.com/nW4lznA.gif

Has a pocket of pretty favorable conditions for a little bit will reach a wall of shear though sometime tomorrow and begin to weaken.

[SoupBone]

New shear chart.

https://i.imgur.com/nW4lznA.gif

Has a pocket of pretty favorable conditions for a little bit will reach a wall of shear though sometime tomorrow and begin to weaken.

Zoomed. Not sure why I didn't post this one.

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Tropical Storm Nicholas Special Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1130 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...NICHOLAS RE-FORMS TO THE NORTH AND STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 1130 PM CDT...0430 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 96.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[NDG]

Pressure beginning to fall now.

AF305 0214A NICHOLAS HDOB 49 20210913
042130 2454N 09648W 8427 01578 0099 +175 +152 040013 014 020 000 00
042200 2453N 09646W 8425 01579 0098 +175 +153 032013 014 019 001 00
042230 2452N 09645W 8425 01578 0097 +175 +153 031014 014 019 001 00
042300 2451N 09644W 8424 01578 0096 +174 +160 025012 014 020 000 00
042330 2450N 09642W 8426 01576 0099 +170 +162 025015 016 020 000 00
042400 2449N 09641W 8429 01572 0099 +167 //// 022013 015 021 000 01
042430 2448N 09639W 8427 01572 0098 +165 //// 022012 013 018 001 01
042500 2447N 09638W 8425 01574 0094 +167 //// 021012 013 020 001 01
042530 2446N 09636W 8425 01569 0093 +165 //// 016013 015 021 006 01
042600 2446N 09634W 8430 01562 0094 +160 //// 001012 015 023 005 01
042630 2446N 09633W 8425 01566 0090 +163 //// 350010 011 026 007 01
042700 2446N 09631W 8426 01562 //// +157 //// 346009 010 026 008 01
042730 2446N 09629W 8426 01560 0082 +164 //// 001012 014 026 008 01
042800 2446N 09627W 8428 01555 0075 +168 //// 350013 013 030 007 01
042830 2446N 09626W 8428 01550 0070 +171 //// 343011 014 028 005 05
042900 2447N 09624W 8428 01548 0066 +170 //// 320004 007 023 006 01
042930 2447N 09622W 8428 01545 0061 +175 +174 253005 006 021 004 00
043000 2448N 09620W 8429 01543 0060 +175 +170 203008 010 024 002 00
043030 2449N 09619W 8427 01543 0056 +180 +170 165016 018 022 003 00
043100 2450N 09618W 8427 01544 0058 +176 //// 158026 028 027 005 01

[ROCK]

Pressure falling quickly now. Winds will catch up. Still think it makes a run at a law end Cat 2..

Reminds me of 2007 Humberto. Strengthen all the way to the coast.

[NDG]

Extrap pressure of 1003 mb.

URNT15 KNHC 130440
AF305 0214A NICHOLAS HDOB 50 20210913
043130 2452N 09618W 8413 01557 0060 +172 //// 156030 030 034 007 05
043200 2453N 09620W 8429 01539 0056 +170 //// 157024 030 035 008 05
043230 2452N 09621W 8420 01540 0036 +193 +180 143007 022 032 007 00
043300 2451N 09623W 8424 01543 0038 +202 +171 359014 017 027 005 00
043330 2451N 09625W 8432 01539 0049 +191 +175 355016 017 027 004 00
043400 2449N 09625W 8420 01556 0060 +181 +173 332016 017 027 002 03
043430 2447N 09625W 8427 01549 0066 +173 +172 316013 016 027 002 00
043500 2446N 09624W 8430 01548 0068 +169 //// 288009 010 026 003 01
043530 2445N 09622W 8426 01551 0070 +168 //// 261009 011 023 009 05
043600 2444N 09621W 8425 01552 0069 +170 //// 246011 011 025 004 01
043630 2442N 09620W 8425 01552 0072 +164 //// 249011 012 033 012 05

[HurricaneBrain]

I tried. I tried...

Tropical Storm Nicholas Special Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1130 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...NICHOLAS RE-FORMS TO THE NORTH AND STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 1130 PM CDT...0430 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 96.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[grapealcoholic]

Extrap pressure of 1003 mb.

URNT15 KNHC 130440
AF305 0214A NICHOLAS HDOB 50 20210913
043130 2452N 09618W 8413 01557 0060 +172 //// 156030 030 034 007 05
043200 2453N 09620W 8429 01539 0056 +170 //// 157024 030 035 008 05
043230 2452N 09621W 8420 01540 0036 +193 +180 143007 022 032 007 00
043300 2451N 09623W 8424 01543 0038 +202 +171 359014 017 027 005 00
043330 2451N 09625W 8432 01539 0049 +191 +175 355016 017 027 004 00
043400 2449N 09625W 8420 01556 0060 +181 +173 332016 017 027 002 03
043430 2447N 09625W 8427 01549 0066 +173 +172 316013 016 027 002 00
043500 2446N 09624W 8430 01548 0068 +169 //// 288009 010 026 003 01
043530 2445N 09622W 8426 01551 0070 +168 //// 261009 011 023 009 05
043600 2444N 09621W 8425 01552 0069 +170 //// 246011 011 025 004 01
043630 2442N 09620W 8425 01552 0072 +164 //// 249011 012 033 012 05

WOw

[SoupBone]

Pressure falling quickly now. Winds will catch up. Still think it makes a run at a law end Cat 2..

Reminds me of 2007 Humberto. Strengthen all the way to the coast.

There's 40 knots of shear extending around 100 miles offshore, that would be quite a feat.

[wicked_wx_watcher]

Raining hard for the last hour in Clear Lake.

[Teban54]

Pressure falling quickly now. Winds will catch up. Still think it makes a run at a law end Cat 2..

Reminds me of 2007 Humberto. Strengthen all the way to the coast.

There's 40 knots of shear extending around 100 miles offshore, that would be quite a feat.

If this was a Cat 2, I would say anything is possible...

(This is Earl 1998. And no, I'm not expecting Nicholas to ramp up like this at this moment.)

[ElectricStorm]

We'll see what the drop has. 1003 would certainly be a significant drop

[Nederlander]

Pressure falling quickly now. Winds will catch up. Still think it makes a run at a law end Cat 2..

Reminds me of 2007 Humberto. Strengthen all the way to the coast.

There's 40 knots of shear extending around 100 miles offshore, that would be quite a feat.

Shear should retreat

[CrazyC83]

With the new center, Nicholas has less time over water - about 12 hours quicker to landfall. That may hold its intensity in check.

[ROCK]

Pressure falling quickly now. Winds will catch up. Still think it makes a run at a law end Cat 2..

Reminds me of 2007 Humberto. Strengthen all the way to the coast.

There's 40 knots of shear extending around 100 miles offshore, that would be quite a feat.

Hasn’t stopped it yet. Plus we are down to 1003 and that’s 5mb from the last hour or so.

[IcyTundra]

Pressure falling quickly now. Winds will catch up. Still think it makes a run at a law end Cat 2..

Reminds me of 2007 Humberto. Strengthen all the way to the coast.

There's 40 knots of shear extending around 100 miles offshore, that would be quite a feat.

If this was a Cat 2, I would say anything is possible...
https://i.imgur.com/jEPR1dg.png
(This is Earl 1998. And no, I'm not expecting Nicholas to ramp up like this at this moment.)

Earl was bizarre 100 mph but only 980 mb.

[NDG]

Even lower pressure, 1002.8 mb by extrap.

044330 2451N 09623W 8427 01539 0048 +184 +182 235006 008 024 002 03
044400 2453N 09624W 8427 01535 0031 +206 +172 352008 010 023 003 00
044430 2454N 09625W 8423 01539 0028 +210 +169 027017 022 025 003 00
044500 2455N 09626W 8429 01533 0034 +203 +171 046027 028 029 003 03
044530 2456N 09626W 8425 01543 0055 +169 //// 089027 029 040 009 01

[grapealcoholic]

Look how tight those inner core winds are to the core