ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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HurricaneBrain
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#461 Postby HurricaneBrain » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:57 pm

Jeez Nick looks really good on radar.... tightening up and looks like he’s strengthening.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#462 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:59 pm

Nederlander wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
ROCK wrote:Pressure falling quickly now. Winds will catch up. Still think it makes a run at a law end Cat 2..

Reminds me of 2007 Humberto. Strengthen all the way to the coast.



There's 40 knots of shear extending around 100 miles offshore, that would be quite a feat.


Shear should retreat


No forecast has called for that in the last several days.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#463 Postby gqhebert » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:00 am

grapealcoholic wrote:Look how tight those inner core winds are to the core :double:



With a tight core it can deepen much faster and land interaction sometimes help as well in this part of the gulf.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#464 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:01 am

Nicholas taking advantage of this pocket of light shear wouldn't surprise me to see a cat 1 out of this.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#465 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:02 am

gqhebert wrote:
grapealcoholic wrote:Look how tight those inner core winds are to the core :double:



With a tight core it can deepen much faster and land interaction sometimes help as well in this part of the gulf.


Yep land interaction can tighten up a TS. Seen it meant of time.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#466 Postby HurricaneBrain » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:02 am

Boom. I’m afraid RI is underway. Will likely be decoupled as it nears the coast IMO.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#467 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:03 am

IcyTundra wrote:Nicholas taking advantage of this pocket of light shear wouldn't surprise me to see a cat 1 out of this.


Agree
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#468 Postby jaguars_22 » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:03 am

Nhc shifted track west again to very near my location. Hopefully I don’t wake up and see a cat 2
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#469 Postby HurricaneBrain » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:12 am

This is not a 50 mph storm. Is anyone else seeing what I’m seeing or do I need to go to sleep? This looks like a 60 mph TS...
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#470 Postby Clearcloudz » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:15 am

Image

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1437277996038111233


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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#471 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:15 am

The center looks to be quite a ways NW of the last fix, if it takes longer to turn, it might have to deal with some land interaction around the TX/MX border. I don't think that will be much of an issue for it, but it's something to watch.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#472 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:16 am

Eye drop supports 1008 so looks like the AF extrap is too low

EDIT: Nope that's the wrong drop. Eye drop is 1000-1001 my goodness
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:18 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#473 Postby HurricaneBrain » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:17 am

Center seems to be clearing out. I don’t think this is shear related. This is RI IMO https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#474 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:18 am

With the reformation, less time over water so that's a good thing.
Last edited by HouTXmetro on Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#475 Postby Clearcloudz » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:19 am

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1437250821813592067


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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#476 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:20 am

HouTXmetro wrote:With the reformation, less time over what so that's a good thing.

Less time to weaken too the increasing wind shear close to the coast may not have much time to weaken Nicholas due to the landfall time being moved up.
Last edited by IcyTundra on Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#477 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:21 am

Going absolutely bonkers tonight
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#478 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:22 am

HouTXmetro wrote:With the reformation, less time over what so that's a good thing.


Yeah that's definitely a positive. It's nearing the 30+ knot wall too. If that doesn't take a bite out of him, nothing will.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#479 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:22 am

9mb drop between center passes. Crazy 4.5mb/hr. :eek: Yeah let's hope that doesn't continue
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#480 Postby Garnetcat5 » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:22 am

Holy cow some lady just posted on Travis Herzog’s update she has it from a reliable source that there will be 56 inches of rain in Houston. WTH?!?!
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