ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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IcyTundra
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#501 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:53 am

Nicholas running ahead of schedule was forecasted to be 60 mph at 7 AM it is already at 60 MPH 6 hours before it was supposed to be.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#502 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:54 am

HurricaneBrain wrote:Never said it’s an actual eye, but it’s an eye-like feature. Look at the link I posted. This feature might be more pronounced in the coming hours. Watching closely.
HouTXmetro wrote:Where are you seeing an eye form?

Think it would show up on radar first but who knows
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#503 Postby wkwally » Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:07 am

I really think that by later on today hurricane warnings will be posted.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#504 Postby Craters » Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:15 am

Garnetcat5 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Garnetcat5 wrote:Holy cow some lady just posted on Travis Herzog’s update she has it from a reliable source that there will be 56 inches of rain in Houston. WTH?!?!


That person is a fear mongerer, nothing more. Unless she speaks directly to God.

That’s what I was hoping for. Why do people do that?!?!

Hi, Garnetcats -- please check your private messages.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#505 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:33 am

It's barely moving
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#506 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:42 am

Image
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#507 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:47 am

Another center relocation east coming?
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#508 Postby LARanger » Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:47 am

Garnetcat5 wrote:Holy cow some lady just posted on Travis Herzog’s update she has it from a reliable source that there will be 56 inches of rain in Houston. WTH?!?!


That's a year's tally for Houston, and, if we're going to be our most generous, the claim should best be understood as a prediction for the year as a whole.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#509 Postby La Breeze » Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:54 am

grapealcoholic wrote:Another center relocation east coming?

east?
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#510 Postby SouthernMet » Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:08 am

Nicholas is really getting it’s act together fast over the last 30 minutes, we might be seeing further RI ramping up. COC tightening up, Banding taking place, eye wall can be seen clearly on KBRO radar. Velocities now showing Hurricane force winds around the center. I strongly believe NHC will upgrade at the next advisory or after next Recon pass. As convection is building and finally wrapping around the NW quadrant it will allow for further strengthening. Plenty of time ahead over water with this northern trajectory and slow movement.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#511 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:15 am

Scary storm
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#512 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:16 am

Nicholas is going full pink mode, looks quite scary on IR. I definitely think Nicholas could make a run for cat 1 strength before landfall.

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#513 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:47 am

Old center seems to be decaying on radar. Probably a relocation east
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#514 Postby kassi » Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:48 am

You don't see a high risk very often from the WPC.

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#515 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:50 am

Could this be a center reformation? If so it's quite a jump to the east which could be bad news as it would give Nicholas more time over water.

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#516 Postby whatacane » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:01 am

kevin wrote:Could this be a center reformation? If so it's quite a jump to the east which could be bad news as it would give Nicholas more time over water.

https://i.imgur.com/xPis0KL.jpg

saw that happen looked like it merged with something
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#517 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:16 am

Looks like the new center is clearing out compared to the surrounding convection and we have a crescent shaped pink ring-like feature. I think there's a pretty good chance that this is a proto-eye feature, will be interesting to see what recon finds. Looks like recon just departed btw according to TropicalTidbits.

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#518 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:25 am

kevin wrote:Looks like the new center is clearing out compared to the surrounding convection and we have a crescent shaped pink ring-like feature. I think there's a pretty good chance that this is a proto-eye feature, will be interesting to see what recon finds. Looks like recon just departed btw according to TropicalTidbits.

https://i.imgur.com/QAGcyYo.jpg


Looks like you are on to something, I was trying to figure out why the eye like feature on radar was degrading. It would be funny if the old feature they were tracking became the dominant one again. If true it would have an impact on intensity, as the previous asymmetrical structure of the storm would limit its intensification rate. Houston, we have a problem.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#519 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:43 am

Looks like the most recent eye feature we just discussed is degrading again a bit, but I can't really tell if that means that another feature will become dominant again. Maybe it's just part of the pulse up / pulse down cycle of Nicholas. Guess all we can do for now is wait and see.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#520 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:48 am

Jeez it’s impossible to tell where the LLC is and whether it is relocating or not based on this IR structure. We’ll have to wait for recon and visible imagery, both of which are a few hours away.
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