ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Nicholas running ahead of schedule was forecasted to be 60 mph at 7 AM it is already at 60 MPH 6 hours before it was supposed to be.
0 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 684
- Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:26 pm
Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
HurricaneBrain wrote:Never said it’s an actual eye, but it’s an eye-like feature. Look at the link I posted. This feature might be more pronounced in the coming hours. Watching closely.HouTXmetro wrote:Where are you seeing an eye form?
Think it would show up on radar first but who knows
1 likes
Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I really think that by later on today hurricane warnings will be posted.
0 likes
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 421
- Joined: Sat Aug 24, 2013 2:34 pm
- Location: Alvin, TX (south of Houston)
Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Garnetcat5 wrote:SoupBone wrote:Garnetcat5 wrote:Holy cow some lady just posted on Travis Herzog’s update she has it from a reliable source that there will be 56 inches of rain in Houston. WTH?!?!
That person is a fear mongerer, nothing more. Unless she speaks directly to God.
That’s what I was hoping for. Why do people do that?!?!
Hi, Garnetcats -- please check your private messages.
0 likes
Nothing that I post here should ever be treated as a forecast or anything resembling one. Please check with your local NWS office or the NHC for forecasts, watches, and warnings.
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 684
- Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:26 pm
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 9155
- Age: 39
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 684
- Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:26 pm
Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Garnetcat5 wrote:Holy cow some lady just posted on Travis Herzog’s update she has it from a reliable source that there will be 56 inches of rain in Houston. WTH?!?!
That's a year's tally for Houston, and, if we're going to be our most generous, the claim should best be understood as a prediction for the year as a whole.
1 likes
Baton Rouge area cyclone dilettante, PSWAGGER* tropical weather & hydrology model developer
(* Pseudo-Scientific Wild-A** Guesses Generally Expressed Ridiculously)
The GFDL would've had all this figured out by now.
(* Pseudo-Scientific Wild-A** Guesses Generally Expressed Ridiculously)
The GFDL would've had all this figured out by now.
Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
grapealcoholic wrote:Another center relocation east coming?
east?
0 likes
Not a professional forecast by any means.
Audrey'57, Hilda'64, Betsy '65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Humberto'07, Gustav'08, Ike'08, Isaac'12, Monsoonal Depression'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19, Laura'20, Delta'20, Ida'21.
Audrey'57, Hilda'64, Betsy '65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Humberto'07, Gustav'08, Ike'08, Isaac'12, Monsoonal Depression'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19, Laura'20, Delta'20, Ida'21.
- SouthernMet
- Category 3
- Posts: 857
- Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 8:23 pm
- Location: fort worth, tx
Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Nicholas is really getting it’s act together fast over the last 30 minutes, we might be seeing further RI ramping up. COC tightening up, Banding taking place, eye wall can be seen clearly on KBRO radar. Velocities now showing Hurricane force winds around the center. I strongly believe NHC will upgrade at the next advisory or after next Recon pass. As convection is building and finally wrapping around the NW quadrant it will allow for further strengthening. Plenty of time ahead over water with this northern trajectory and slow movement.
2 likes
Nothing that SouthernMet posts, is an official forecast,nor does it reflect views of STORM2K.. SouthernMet is just adding to the great discussions on STORM2K.. Refer to NWS for official forecasts.
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 684
- Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:26 pm
Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Nicholas is going full pink mode, looks quite scary on IR. I definitely think Nicholas could make a run for cat 1 strength before landfall.
0 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 684
- Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:26 pm
Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Old center seems to be decaying on radar. Probably a relocation east
0 likes
Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Could this be a center reformation? If so it's quite a jump to the east which could be bad news as it would give Nicholas more time over water.


1 likes
Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
kevin wrote:Could this be a center reformation? If so it's quite a jump to the east which could be bad news as it would give Nicholas more time over water.
https://i.imgur.com/xPis0KL.jpg
saw that happen looked like it merged with something
1 likes
Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like the new center is clearing out compared to the surrounding convection and we have a crescent shaped pink ring-like feature. I think there's a pretty good chance that this is a proto-eye feature, will be interesting to see what recon finds. Looks like recon just departed btw according to TropicalTidbits.


0 likes
Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
kevin wrote:Looks like the new center is clearing out compared to the surrounding convection and we have a crescent shaped pink ring-like feature. I think there's a pretty good chance that this is a proto-eye feature, will be interesting to see what recon finds. Looks like recon just departed btw according to TropicalTidbits.
https://i.imgur.com/QAGcyYo.jpg
Looks like you are on to something, I was trying to figure out why the eye like feature on radar was degrading. It would be funny if the old feature they were tracking became the dominant one again. If true it would have an impact on intensity, as the previous asymmetrical structure of the storm would limit its intensification rate. Houston, we have a problem.
0 likes
Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like the most recent eye feature we just discussed is degrading again a bit, but I can't really tell if that means that another feature will become dominant again. Maybe it's just part of the pulse up / pulse down cycle of Nicholas. Guess all we can do for now is wait and see.
0 likes
Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Jeez it’s impossible to tell where the LLC is and whether it is relocating or not based on this IR structure. We’ll have to wait for recon and visible imagery, both of which are a few hours away.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests