ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

26/95 is where i'd guess it'll try to reform. Would be a good bit east of track

Uh, I don't think so...

[xironman]

The vort is being pulled by the gyre NE. Pretty sure it is not going to hit the 18z forecast point. Note the SSW winds north of the center,

[ElectricStorm]

Looks to me like it got a little too close to the coast and got hit with some dry air. May not have time to recover from that, however I wouldn't be surprised if it ramps up right before landfall since that's what pretty much every gulf storm does these days

[BeaumontBen]

I am in Beaumont Texas, Is it just me or does it seem like this storm is slightly E/NE of expected track?

[MBryant]

At least on radar it looks like it tried a center relocation and failed. I could be completely wrong about that though just what it looked like to me.

I think I see several things on the Radar.

The old surface COC is moving East, probably a CC loop. It appears to be getting larger from a pinhole center to merely a small center.

A vortex feature about 100 mile to the North Northeast strengthens and wanes over about an hour. Since it is closer to the edge of the radar, it might be the Mid level low sometimes referenced.

There is finally some banding to the South which is moving East.

All in all, this appears to be primarily a moisture threat and amounts will be greatly determined by how quickly the system moves through any given area.

But a word of caution. If this stalls over an area, severe flooding can occur. It happens almost independently of the strength or organization of the system with Harvey as an example of a strong system and Allison an example of a weak system which stalled causing massive flooding. If the system moves even 5MPH, the severity decreases. But that is almost as difficult to forecast as where the center will cross land.

[tolakram]

[GCANE]

Seems like Recon is heading to the new reform area.
FL winds are shifting.

[GCANE]

46 knt SFMR unflagged
FL winds out of SSE
Now in some heavy convection

[wxman57]

Appears to have a small area of 45-50 kt winds. NHC tends to be very generous with max winds to keep the public on alert. 60 kts at landfall this evening appears a bit high. Maybe 50-55. Sometimes these storms can wrap up a bit just before moving ashore, though.

[tolakram]

[MississippiWx]

26/95 is where i'd guess it'll try to reform. Would be a good bit east of track

Uh, I don't think so...

Yeah, I think 27N 96W is more likely if a center reformation is occurring.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Winds at corpus are out of the NE and Brownsville are out of the NW so the center is north of where it is supposed to be

[GCANE]

Looks like enough rain rate over a big enough area to get a warm core fired up.

unique black baby names

[wxman57]

26/95 is where i'd guess it'll try to reform. Would be a good bit east of track

Uh, I don't think so...

Yeah, I think 27N 96W is more likely if a center reformation is occurring.

Or 27N/96.5W. Mid-level rotation there.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I was trying to figure out that weather.us radar display. Link to the imagery that was posted:
https://weather.us/radar-us/978-w-261-n ... lay-0-36-8

[tolakram]

[tropicwatch]

The gulf is a little angry on South Padre Island.

https://youtu.be/QqgSVV36wNI

[lrak]

wxman57 very important question! Will there be west winds under 20mph Tuesday afternoon for Corpus Christi?

[lrak]

The gulf is a little angry on South Padre Island.

https://youtu.be/QqgSVV36wNI

This afternoon the locals may get some really great surfing conditions.

[MississippiWx]

Recon finding flight level winds over 64kts near the new center.