ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

42020 is at 26.968 N 96.693 W with tropical storm force winds out of the NE. It seems impossible that the center could be at 26.4°N 96.8°W

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42020

[xironman]

the circulation reformation was a tall tale that this was going to ramp up, expect a CAT 1 and hurricane warnings issued, this slow coast mover is going to cause some damage

tell tale? I think there's too much shear, but it will be a windy rainmaker for sure.

Note that the fact the storm and the upper level winds are going somewhat in the same direction. Lessening relative shear.

[underthwx]

I gotta say, as alarming as this potential flood factory is, the radar loop from this morning is utterly hilarious. It's like Nicholas was all "I'm goin' to Brownsville!" but, upon catching sight of the town, yeeted itself right the heck outta there with a right hearty "NOPE".

As I've said a few times, while 30 knots of shear isn't super high, it's apparently enough to push convection off to the east and disrupt Nicholas. This shear has been in the forecast for days too, though in the 40 knot range. Today will be a day for Nicholas to bump or stay sloppy. My bet is on sloppy ATM.

Well, yeah, obviously it's all the result of atmospheric effects, from the various causes of the center reformations (or attempts thereof) to the direct action of the shear at various levels. Just for science, I wouldn't mind if Nicholas puts on a little more of this hide-and-seek dancing show before petering out well before bothering anyone too much.

Literally Nicholas:

(Besides, if storms could decide where they went, anthropomorphically, a la my Brownsville joke, I think we all know there's no way any of them would come anywhere near Louisiana: "Oh sure, I'm a rotating mass of megatons of warm air, lightning, and excess moisture with a funky counter-rotating output chute stacked atop me, basically a monstrous swirling energy vampire drawing lifeforce from the warm water below, but even I'm not insane enough to roll up into that mass of voodoo cray-cray."

Of course, I could have the joke all wrong, and what actually happened is that Brownsville folk have the magic voodoo powers. In such a case, I'd just like to clarify that I wasn't making fun of Brownsville at all (please Brownsville don't hurt me).)

Interesting...

[wxman57]

Newly-forming center near 26.8N / 96.6W. Old center is dissipating. This puts it ashore much faster/earlier.

[Iceresistance]

62 mm/hr rain rate!
Definitely has the potential to go up a notch.

That's about 2.5 inches/hour for those of us on the American System. Not quite so scary.

I've dealt with up to 5 inches per hour on Tropical Thunderstorms in Oklahoma . . .

[tropicwatch]

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42020

WOW!!!

I have been watching that buoy. The wind direction changes indicate that Nicholas might go east of that buoy.

[grapealcoholic]

Newly-forming center near 26.8N / 96.6W. Old center is dissipating. This puts it ashore much faster/earlier.

Are you even looking at radar?

[GCANE]

[underthwx]

Newly-forming center near 26.8N / 96.6W. Old center is dissipating. This puts it ashore much faster/earlier.

Are you even looking at radar?

That is where the NHC has Nicholas located at 10 am....26.4 N...96.8W.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Newly-forming center near 26.8N / 96.6W. Old center is dissipating. This puts it ashore much faster/earlier.

Are you even looking at radar?

Are you looking at recon? Radar sees the MLC at this distance.

[Airboy]

1004mb (29.65 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.6°C (81.7°F) 24.3°C (76°F) 130° (from the SE) 21 knots (24 mph)
1000mb 35m (115 ft) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 23.8°C (75°F) 130° (from the SE) 20 knots (23 mph)
925mb 721m (2,365 ft) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 19.2°C (67°F) 170° (from the S) 17 knots (20 mph)
850mb 1,456m (4,777 ft) 20.2°C (68.4°F) 16.4°C (62°F) 215° (from the SW) 4 knots (5 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 15:22Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 26.68N 96.69W
- Time: 15:22:16Z

[tolakram]

[grapealcoholic]

Newly-forming center near 26.8N / 96.6W. Old center is dissipating. This puts it ashore much faster/earlier.

Are you even looking at radar?

Are you looking at recon? Radar sees the MLC at this distance.

It's apparently only 3k feet. I guess we'll see but it sure looks like a developing eyewall

[galvbay]

Decent squall going through Smith Point right now. 1.25” rain since midnight. Gust to 37mph. Tides 1 to 1 1/2 ‘

[SoupBone]

Newly-forming center near 26.8N / 96.6W. Old center is dissipating. This puts it ashore much faster/earlier.

Are you even looking at radar?

Are you consuming some of that grape alcohol? That's where the recon is seeing it too.

[underthwx]

https://imgur.com/eTcCWgJ

Almost onshore Tolakram?...

[MississippiWx]

The more I look at radar, the more I believe we are seeing two centers dance around one broader center. The one that was originally near Brownsville is shooting northeast and will rotate through the convection again soon. The "new" one to the north is beginning to rotate south and west. The old center is actually gaining some stronger thunderstorms as it rotates into the eastern quadrant where moisture is more abundant. Might see another tug to the north and east with time as this one rotates through and becomes stronger.

[grapealcoholic]

Wow, seeing subsidence on radar near that formative eyewall. Big time energy release

[kevco]

The more I look at radar, the more I believe we are seeing two centers dance around one broader center. The one that was originally near Brownsville is shooting northeast and will rotate through the convection again soon. The "new" one to the north is beginning to rotate south and west. The old center is actually gaining some stronger thunderstorms as it rotates into the eastern quadrant where moisture is more abundant. Might see another tug to the north and east with time as this one rotates through and becomes stronger.

I noticed the same thing happening, look for more impacts with rain further East of the landfall position.