ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[grapealcoholic]

All of a sudden there's a warm spot surrounded by deep convection

[tolakram]

Not getting stronger

[GCANE]

Winds shifting at Corpus Christie.
Now out of the north.

[jabman98]

A friend was planning to drive from Jackson, MS to Houston tomorrow (Tuesday). I warned him about Nicholas and suggested he stay put until we see how it plays out. He does need to get back to Houston, but maybe has a few days flexibility. What would you suggest to someone in that situation? The place in Jackson he's staying can't accommodate him starting Tuesday so he's got to go somewhere, even if just down the road to a hotel.

[GCANE]

Just after recon headed home.
I hate it when that happens.

[cheezyWXguy]

Not getting stronger

https://i.imgur.com/DgaBvOn.png

Gonna need a major core burst if it’s going to tighten up the inner core or resume pressure drops. This reminds me of beta last year, when that mesovort blew up and people started paying attention. In both cases, the clear indicator it wasn’t actually strengthening was that bands around the “eyewall” were expanding outward instead of contracting inward.

[Nederlander]

A friend was planning to drive from Jackson, MS to Houston tomorrow (Tuesday). I warned him about Nicholas and suggested he stay put until we see how it plays out. He does need to get back to Houston, but maybe has a few days flexibility. What would you suggest to someone in that situation? The place in Jackson he's staying can't accommodate him starting Tuesday so he's got to go somewhere, even if just down the road to a hotel.

If it were me, I’d make the trip back today if possible. Otherwise, wait until Thursday.. I would not try to make that drive tomorrow!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This storm is really trying to get it together, but its super disorganized. I just saw a visible satellite with a hot tower. Lets see what comes of it

[jasons2k]

I wouldn't be driving in Houston tomorrow.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topst ... JS?ocid=st

[GCANE]

Pretty good lightning now in that "circle of convection"
Kinda looks like its rotating counter clockwise too.
That's kinda weird.

[GCANE]

Feeder band seeing big increase in CAPE.

[HurricaneBelle]

Winds shifting at Corpus Christie.
Now out of the north.

This thread's going to bring us every alternate spelling of Corpus Christi

[IcyTundra]

Wind shear really saved us here we would have possibly been looking at a major hurricane if it wasn't for the wind shear.

[jabman98]

A friend was planning to drive from Jackson, MS to Houston tomorrow (Tuesday). I warned him about Nicholas and suggested he stay put until we see how it plays out. He does need to get back to Houston, but maybe has a few days flexibility. What would you suggest to someone in that situation? The place in Jackson he's staying can't accommodate him starting Tuesday so he's got to go somewhere, even if just down the road to a hotel.

If it were me, I’d make the trip back today if possible. Otherwise, wait until Thursday.. I would not try to make that drive tomorrow!

Thanks. Unfortunately he can't leave today. Well, maybe tonight but then he'd be driving into the storm, so that might not be a very good idea either.

[SoupBone]

Wind shear really saved us here we would have possibly been looking at a major hurricane if it wasn't for the wind shear.

I wholeheartedly believe this to be true. It's just enough to keep the system in check. 25-30 knots across the top and middle, with only around 20 knots to the south.

[grapealcoholic]

Just eyeballing cell movement and velocity scan I would spot the center at 27/95.7

[Stormcenter]

It sure looks on radar like Nick is moving slightly east of
due north but hey I’m no radar expert by any means.

[GCANE]

Quickly improving on IR.
Expanding radially in all directions with some minor gravity waves.

[Visioen]

It feels like this is the first page of the whole thread not featuring the words 'center reformation'. Still room for it though.

Edit: just realized I made it happen myself

[tolakram]