ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBrain]

I’m sorry but no one can tell me the center of this is 40 miles east of Brownsville (last NHC position). This is much further north and east.

Just after recon headed home.
I hate it when that happens.

[url] https://i.postimg.cc/BbBYV2wj/93167917.gif [/url]

[grapealcoholic]

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42019

This buoy just switched from SSW to SSE

[tolakram]

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like the center is less defined on radar now. Hopefully that continues

[underthwx]

Wind shear really saved us here we would have possibly been looking at a major hurricane if it wasn't for the wind shear.

I wholeheartedly believe this to be true. It's just enough to keep the system in check. 25-30 knots across the top and middle, with only around 20 knots to the south.

Ditto......shear is a good thing sometimes..the wx here is pretty tranquil....I'm good with that...

[dpep4]

Team Shear


(Also, Team Sheer Christy Corpus)

[dantonlsu]

Zero chance this makes landfall in Matagorda bay.

[GCANE]

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42019

This buoy just switched from SSW to SSE

Good drop in pressure too

[Iceresistance]

Zero chance this makes landfall in Matagorda bay.

Unless it decides to jog NW, it's very unlikely at this point . . .

[grapealcoholic]

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42019

This buoy just switched from SSW to SSE

Good drop in pressure too

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/nzWxRbgs/plot-met.png [/url]

The panorama is so ominous

[OuterBanker]

I just hope that it doesn't turn out to be another Allison. Stalling over Houston then creeping ene through the deep south.

[HoustonFrog]

Getting our first real down pours here in N Houston. Some nice winds and cool air accompanying the hard rain. Nothing crazy.

[xironman]

That's a long way off of Corpus Christi for a TC that was supposed to bury itself in Mexico according to yesterday's 12z Euro.

[Nederlander]

That's a long way off of Corpus Christi for a TC that was supposed to bury itself in Mexico according to yesterday's 12z Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/1Vl3rBs.gif

It’s been straight up trash the last couple of years. Not sure what’s going on with it

[wxman57]

Just under an inch of rain here in SW Houston. Looks like Nicholas will make landfall with max winds 50 kts, but average winds lower than that. No TS wind for Houston, maybe not even in gusts. Wouldn't rule out a gust, though. GFS & Euro only predict 2-4" across most of Harris County and 5-10 inches along the coast.

[ChrisH-UK]

New radar loop out of Corpus Christi Source RadarScope.

[InfernoFlameCat]

115knot pixel on radar surrounded by a group of 85knot pixels. 115knot probably false but the group of 85knots? Hmmm.

[wxman57]

I think that the problem with some models is that they don't see the big picture. I've always said that the center follows the convection. The Euro, possibly seeing increased wind shear, kept Nicholas weaker and tried to move it with the lower-level flow. Nicholas almost did move into NE Mexico earlier today. However, the center followed the convection to the NNE and re-formed up there. I've seen it many times before. SW shear across the Gulf drives convection NE and the center follows or re-forms right along with the convection. Low-level steering for the weak low center doesn't matter.

[Stormcenter]

I wouldn’t be surprised if LA. gets more rain out
this storm than TX.

[wxman57]

I wouldn’t be surprised if LA. gets more rain out
this storm than TX.

Euro says 10-15" Lake Charles and 5-8 on TX coast.