ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBrain]

Do you know something the NHC doesn't? NHC has Harris in a tropical storm warning. I think you're being a little too conservative.

Just under an inch of rain here in SW Houston. Looks like Nicholas will make landfall with max winds 45-50 kts, but average winds lower than that. No TS wind for Houston, maybe not even in gusts. Wouldn't rule out a gust, though. GFS & Euro only predict 2-4" across most of Harris County and 5-10 inches along the coast.

[CypressMike]

Do you know something the NWS doesn't? NWS has Harris in a tropical storm warning. I think you're being a little too conservative.

Just under an inch of rain here in SW Houston. Looks like Nicholas will make landfall with max winds 45-50 kts, but average winds lower than that. No TS wind for Houston, maybe not even in gusts. Wouldn't rule out a gust, though. GFS & Euro only predict 2-4" across most of Harris County and 5-10 inches along the coast.

Nope. He knows his stuff. This will end up being a non-event for Houston and Harris County.

[mpic]

A friend was planning to drive from Jackson, MS to Houston tomorrow (Tuesday). I warned him about Nicholas and suggested he stay put until we see how it plays out. He does need to get back to Houston, but maybe has a few days flexibility. What would you suggest to someone in that situation? The place in Jackson he's staying can't accommodate him starting Tuesday so he's got to go somewhere, even if just down the road to a hotel.

If it were me, I’d make the trip back today if possible. Otherwise, wait until Thursday.. I would not try to make that drive tomorrow!

Thanks. Unfortunately he can't leave today. Well, maybe tonight but then he'd be driving into the storm, so that might not be a very good idea either.

I would wait. Just had a healthy band come through in Splendora off of 59 north.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Do you know something the NWS doesn't? NWS has Harris in a tropical storm warning. I think you're being a little too conservative.

Just under an inch of rain here in SW Houston. Looks like Nicholas will make landfall with max winds 45-50 kts, but average winds lower than that. No TS wind for Houston, maybe not even in gusts. Wouldn't rule out a gust, though. GFS & Euro only predict 2-4" across most of Harris County and 5-10 inches along the coast.

Often the NHC makes a larger portion of land under a storm warning than actually experience it. It’s just a precaution in case the storm moves off the forecast line or does something else not exactly predicted.

[HurricaneBrain]

Oooof.....

Do you know something the NWS doesn't? NWS has Harris in a tropical storm warning. I think you're being a little too conservative.

Just under an inch of rain here in SW Houston. Looks like Nicholas will make landfall with max winds 45-50 kts, but average winds lower than that. No TS wind for Houston, maybe not even in gusts. Wouldn't rule out a gust, though. GFS & Euro only predict 2-4" across most of Harris County and 5-10 inches along the coast.

Nope. He knows his stuff. This will end up being a non-event for Houston and Harris County.

[Snowman67]

Just under an inch of rain here in SW Houston. Looks like Nicholas will make landfall with max winds 50 kts, but average winds lower than that. No TS wind for Houston, maybe not even in gusts. Wouldn't rule out a gust, though. GFS & Euro only predict 2-4" across most of Harris County and 5-10 inches along the coast.

You still sticking with Matagorda Bay for where COC of Nicholas will come onshore? Not that the COC really matters in terms of impact....

[InfernoFlameCat]

Also Wxman57 literally is like a deity when it comes to storms. Every storm this year he has been pretty on point with. I was not here last year but probably last year and years before that too. I joined late last year, initially doubted him on a couple of storms early this year, and he was more accurate than all of us.

[SoupBone]

Do you know something the NHC doesn't? NHC has Harris in a tropical storm warning. I think you're being a little too conservative.

Just under an inch of rain here in SW Houston. Looks like Nicholas will make landfall with max winds 45-50 kts, but average winds lower than that. No TS wind for Houston, maybe not even in gusts. Wouldn't rule out a gust, though. GFS & Euro only predict 2-4" across most of Harris County and 5-10 inches along the coast.

He has access to things we don't. I only hate him in Winter Weather threads.

[FLpanhandle91]

Do you know something the NHC doesn't? NHC has Harris in a tropical storm warning. I think you're being a little too conservative.

Just under an inch of rain here in SW Houston. Looks like Nicholas will make landfall with max winds 45-50 kts, but average winds lower than that. No TS wind for Houston, maybe not even in gusts. Wouldn't rule out a gust, though. GFS & Euro only predict 2-4" across most of Harris County and 5-10 inches along the coast.

You know how many times I've been under a TS warning and gotten TS winds? It's like 50/50 at best. Lol.

[tropicwatch]

Latest radar imagery makes it look like Nicholas is building an eye wall.

[HurricaneBrain]

I just feel like it's a stretch to say "No TS wind for Houston" with 100% certainty... but I respect Wxman and his opinion and contribution to this site!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

It's starting to look alot better on radar. Im thinking 70 mph landfall still, maybe a weak cat 1. It's been trending east on the HRRR the alst few runs, which is great for Houston. Not good for GLS.

[IcyTundra]

Have already gotten 2+ inches of rain at my house.

[aspen]

Will there be another recon flight before landfall?

[underthwx]

Also Wxman57 literally is like a deity when it comes to storms. Every storm this year he has been pretty on point with. I was not here last year but probably last year and years before that too. I joined late last year, initially doubted him on a couple of storms early this year, and he was more accurate than all of us.

wxman57 knows his stuff.....when he speaks....I listen....

[xironman]

Will there be another recon flight before landfall?

Should still be offshore

1. TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 13/2330Z,14/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0414A NICHOLAS
C. 13/2130Z
D. 26.2N 96.8W
E. 13/2300Z TO 14/0530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[SoupBone]

Latest shear mapping, get it while it's hot. I know some of guys wanted something crazy to track, but I'm perfectly happy seeing shear do its job. Still a lot of game left, and I feel for Louisiana, but this shear if it keeps up will keep shunting that rain off to the east.

[tropicwatch]

Will there be another recon flight before landfall?

There is not one scheduled tell tomorrow morning.

[LSU Saint]

Only 2-4” in Houston now? That’s hard to believe looking at the radar, but I don’t know much when it comes to this

[IcyTundra]

I trust wxman57 only thing I can remember disagreeing with him on is that he didn't think Mindy should have been a named storm.