ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

Nice job by the NHC on intensity

H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 54kts (62.1mph)

[Steve]

Here is another system coming up to 28N or so and looking better as it comes up. It’s not going to be a perpendicular hit on Texas as we know generally means intensification due to the curvature of the coast and landfall interactions. This is the 5th or 6th storm this year wrapping up and maturing/peaking in the subtropics. So it has to be noted again for one of the early themes of 2021. You'd think if it didn’t landfall into the central TX Coast, it would continue to get better organized for a couple more degrees north.

[PTrackerLA]

Gearing up for the flood fight here in Lafayette. No house on my street has ever taken on water but 2016 was close and I had water 8 feet away from my front door in May when we had 7" in about 3 hours. I don't understand why not even the coastal parishes are under a tropical storm warning at this point. They will definitely experience TS conditions and this seems like a high impact event for all of South LA and all we have is a flood watch.

[sikkar]

W 54kts G 69kts

[ROCK]

Here is another system coming up to 28N or so and looking better as it comes up. It’s not going to be a perpendicular hit on Texas as we know generally means intensification due to the curvature of the coast and landfall interactions. This is the 5th or 6th storm this year wrapping up and maturing/peaking in the subtropics. So it has to be noted again for one of the early themes of 2021. You'd think if it didn’t landfall into the central TX Coast, it would continue to get better organized for a couple more degrees north.

agree. the BOC does the same but better...

[grapealcoholic]

Don't even think there will be that much of a cold wake from Nick. Water is fairly deep that it tracked through and winds never really picked up till late

[Zonacane]

Where is the developing eye?

[Sciencerocks]

[sikkar]

Loos like Reed Timmer is stuck in the surge.

[HurricaneBrain]

Cities in Harris county will see 1 minute 45 mph sustained winds IMO. It’s kind of inevitable at this point. Rain is more of an issue but I think Louisiana will see the brute of Nick unfortunately. Also think we might have a hurricane soon depending on land interaction.

[Teban54]

Don't even think there will be that much of a cold wake from Nick. Water is fairly deep that it tracked through and winds never really picked up till late

Now hoping there won't be a Rita-like wave that doesn't develop in the MDR and sneaks into the Gulf in late September. Models are not showing anything like that currently, but you never know.

[W8NC4TX]

Checking in from juuuuuust outside Nederland, TX. Been breezy and rainy all day since late morning but now it's eerily calm outside. We had some big puddles in the area this evening but not enough to pucker any rear ends (yet..) and my neighborhood is right next to a large maze of really deep drainage ditches that fill up quick when it really comes down so I'll be keeping an eye on those to gauge the rainfall here. I'm concerned that Nicky may be trying to show off a little bit on the anniversary of Humberto

[Category5Kaiju]

Whoa, 70/988 now. Well that was quite a jump. Maybe Nicholas will try and juuust make it to 75 mph before landfall?

[IcyTundra]

Cities in Harris county will see 1 minute 45 mph sustained winds IMO. It’s kind of inevitable at this point. Rain is more of an issue but I think Louisiana will see the brute of Nick unfortunately. Also think we might have a hurricane soon depending on land interaction.

Impossible to know where the heaviest rain totals will be but in my opinion it will probably be to the east of Houston somewhere around Chambers or Jefferson county.

[capNstorms]

[RBDnhm]

988MB he is going Humberto....

Hope so. Satellite did not go out in Lumberton during Humberto. Watched radar on Dish all the way through Port Arthur

[abajan]

Whoa, 70/988 now. Well that was quite a jump. Maybe Nicholas will try and juuust make it to 75 mph before landfall?

Yesterday, in his video, Mark Sudduth predicted it would be a hurricane by landfall.

[capNstorms]

cloud top height showing some improvement in activity well more organized than earlier

[ElectricStorm]

Look at that band wrapping around the west side of the center on radar Favorable angle of approach tightens up yet another storm

[loon]

Am i loosing my mind, or is radar showing it going back out to sea? At this rate and direction it will pass right under Houston.. I don't see anyone talking about it so I feel like I am seeing something that isn't there. Reality check anyone?