Stormgodess wrote: I posed the question yesterday to the local meteorologist I follow on Facebook, and even msgd NWS on Facebook and none responded.
Personal service is hard to come by these days. That's why having actual experts here makes Storm2k worth the dough (says the jerk who has yet to fork over any).
What concerns me is I live on the Little Natalbany river, Located right in the middle of the Tickfaw and Tangipahoa rivers, its a tributary of the Natalbany River in Baptist where the only gauge for it is located. Livingston Parish is FULL of Rivers, Little Tributaries, Creeks, and Ditches that flow through heavily wooded areas and all empty into Lake Maurepas.
Im in the Northeast of the parish, where the eye passed, and looking down the river from the bridge by my house, all you see it treefall. The southern end of the parish not only got much stronger winds but also have much moister soil. And that seem to be the areas that had the most trees go down. So I can only imagine how badly those rivers and tributaries are clogged downstream from me. Ive been watching the gauge in baptist since early this morning, every time that I can get a signal. And the Forecast crest for it has doubled since this morning, and its rising faster than the forecast
At the risk of offending any hydrologists nearby, I've learned just from watching the Amite and Tangi like a damn hawk that the river forecasts are a bit dodgy in relation to unique weather events like 2016 or hurricanes. Don't get me wrong . . . sometimes they're spot on, despite being updated with far less frequency than, say, the NHC forecasts. Other times, even when something's been known to be coming for awhile, they lag or drastically change. In the case of this event, my guess would be that the Little Natalbany won't go much higher than today's forecast, if at all, but that they still got the timing wrong.
Also, for what it's worth, most of the other rivers in the area appear to more or less be keeping schedule, suggesting that they're in the right neighborhood insofar as making general predictions based on rainfall and drainage overall.