ATL: PETER - Models

[aspen]

Second survival run in a row. Similar to the 12z CMC, the 18z GFS stalls 95L just north of the Greater Antilles.

[SFLcane]

Apparent weakness near Florida allowing this to turn north. Down into the 970’s

[LarryWx]

The CONUS bulls got a big push at 12Z but it was from one of the much less trusted models, the Crazy Uncle ensembles. So take with a humongous grain of salt. Out of 21 members, 6 (30%) hit the CONUS and all as Hs, some likely majors: LA, FL, GA, SC, NC, and New England 9/25-8. The prior run also had a bunch of hits.

12Z CMC ensemble 282 hours:

[Category5Kaiju]

Hey high ACE-lovers, it looks like the latest GFS is going to make you all happy!

[MJGarrison]

12z models now showing more favorable environment toward the end of the runs. This is such a fluid forecast not only with the intensity but the track. Very early to call this an OTS. This one has my attention.

I think this is a great point. At 200 hours out a model might show a recurve two runs in a row for very different reasons. This isn’t necessarily the model being ‘consistent’


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[toad strangler]

18z GFS with a potent hurricane drifting oh so slowly OTS in the PLUS 10 day range. That thing can end up anywhere at this range. Quite the difference from the 12z Euro. Once again, a completely different solution late in the game by the GFS.

[Landy]

Considerable slowdown this GFS run. That's new...

[Teban54]

I wonder if the 18z GFS gets 95L strong because the next wave doesn't develop off the coast like it did in most recent model runs. 96L also quickly recurves instead of hanging around in the mid Atlantic for a while.

Indeed, both are true for the 12z run which also has 95L surviving till Newfoundland as a long tracker, despite spending most days as a TS.

Edit: 12z operational ECMWF and CMC both show 96L doing a ESE dip south of Nova Scotia, something that GFS stopped showing since 12z. CMC makes 96L move out quickly despite the dip, and (therefore?) has 95L reintensifying north of the islands. Euro essentially stalls 96L for 4 days, and has 95L dissipating past the islands and absorbed by 96L. I think 96L's track will be key to 95L's intensity (and possibly track), and the TUTT might have indeed been pumped by 96L though I'm not expert on that.

[SFLcane]

The CONUS bulls got a big push at 12Z but it was from one of the much less trusted models, the Crazy Uncle ensembles. So take with a humongous grain of salt. Out of 21 members, 6 (30%) hit the CONUS and all as Hs, some likely majors: LA, FL, GA, SC, NC, and New England 9/25-8. The prior run also had a bunch of hits.

12Z CMC ensemble 282 hours:
https://i.imgur.com/f0YOLMX.png

Hellooooo!

Thankfully it’s the cmc ensembles.

[toad strangler]

The 18z GFS keeps this a huge cane all the way through 16 days floating around the central Atlantic

[Spacecoast]

12z models now showing more favorable environment toward the end of the runs. This is such a fluid forecast not only with the intensity but the track. Very early to call this an OTS. This one has my attention.

I think this is a great point. At 200 hours out a model might show a recurve two runs in a row for very different reasons. This isn’t necessarily the model being ‘consistent’


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The GFS has shown very high variability from run to run. The GEFS ensembles have also shown high run-run variability, as well as very large spreads within each run.
Actual, real -life environmental conditions don't change that much every 6hrs.

In contrast, (for this storm,(so far)) the Euro, and it's ensembles have been a lot more stable.
Or 'consistent', if that's the right term to use.

Of course, being consistent, and eventually wrong is not a good thing, either.

[aspen]

The amount of flip-flopping between so many different solutions is ridiculous. This GFS run gets 95L close to being perfectly under an anticyclone on the 25th/26th while it’s over 29.5C waters, which would lead to a RI phase if an organized TC is there to take advantage of it. Just this morning, the GFS had a dead wave over the Greater Antilles.

Seems like this might be a no-development HWRF run, also a massive shift from previous runs.

[ElectricStorm]

The amount of flip-flopping between so many different solutions is ridiculous. This GFS run gets 95L close to being perfectly under an anticyclone on the 25th/26th while it’s over 29.5C waters, which would lead to a RI phase if an organized TC is there to take advantage of it. Just this morning, the GFS had a dead wave over the Greater Antilles.

Seems like this might be a no-development HWRF run, also a massive shift from previous runs.

Which is exactly why we can't trust any of these models this far out

[LarryWx]

18Z GEFS is the least bearish run since the 6Z of yesterday:

[IcyTundra]

18Z GEFS has a handful of weak members that keep 95L south of the Greater Antilles.

[tolakram]

12Z will have nothing again I wager. Back and forth. Maybe if something develops we will have a better idea.

[SFLcane]

GEFS ensembles Trending westward more into the Caribbean.

[toad strangler]

GEFS ensembles Trending westward more into the Caribbean.

https://i.postimg.cc/NF3dC9FV/4-BD38-A65-8182-4-F20-AE37-E8-F5-DE9-C534-F.gif

Most of those members are much further west. That don't mean diddly at this range other than its just as suspect as the offshore fishing fans who tout a Larry 2 or worse

[SouthFLTropics]

The models are all over the place from run to run in the 10 day plus range. If was forced to place a bet right now on what and where this ends up, my wager would be a tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane north of Puerto Rico heading towards the SE Bahamas with a recurve east of the Bahamas and between the Outer Banks and Bermuda. I have a hard time seeing this get all the way to the CONUS this time of year, however there are exceptions to that rule. Jeanne looked like she was going to recurve and then hit the brakes and looped back around under a building high. Obviously it is too far out to know anything at this time, which is why we keep getting wild swings in the models. Hopefully we will start to get a better picture as we head through this coming weekend.

[aspen]

Midget-cane Odette on the 18z HWRF. The TUTT would hurt that storm a lot, although it’s further SW and faster this run and finishes around 15N/56W.

Unfortunately, the HWRF has had zero consistency with eye sizes, unlike Larry where it very quickly came to the consensus of a large annular eye forming at some point in its life.