ATL: PETER - Models

[SFLcane]

Hwrf further south with a hurricane nearing the islands.

[IcyTundra]

Lol at the one GEFS member that takes 95L through the Florida Straits into the Gulf of Mexico tracking west.

[Spacecoast]

Comparing 18z ECENS w/ 18z GEFS
ECENS seems not to be impressed, with less, & less weak members (although tight spread)


GEFS seems to be confused. Something, somewhere in the western hemisphere is highly likely

[SouthFLTropics]

00z ICON is running and appears to be way further South with the consolidation versus 18z. Will be interesting to see where this ends up.

[Spacecoast]

00z ICON is running and appears to be way further South with the consolidation versus 18z. Will be interesting to see where this ends up.

Looks exactly like Euro through 126 hrs

[IcyTundra]

00Z GFS consolidates 95L further south closer to 10N.

Edit: Looks like it is about the same latitude as the 18Z run through 66 hours.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS has a Cat 1 N or the islands so far

[cheezyWXguy]

0z gfs going west under a building high

[IcyTundra]

00Z GFS a lot stronger and faster.

[Landy]

Something I noticed last run was that a low was around that allowed 95L to slow significantly moving generally northward around 192hr+, but it's not here anymore and as a result it's moving west now. Window washing!

[Hurricaneman]

00Z GFS a lot stronger and faster.

Could be a threat to the Bahamas, Florida or the SE US based on this run

[SouthFLTropics]

There's just way too much back and forth going on to get a real sense of what will happen when this gets closer to 60 West. This will continue to be a "bear watching" through the weekend.

[IcyTundra]

Maybe due to the 00Z GFS showing 95L moving faster 95L is able to get under the high that is building in forcing it further west and not allowing a turn north quickly.

[ElectricStorm]

Takes a while for it to fully develop on this run but once it does there's no looking back and it's a major by the time it gets close to the Bahamas. So many possibilities with this thing but I believe this is the third run in a row now from the GFS that doesn't really show a TUTT (or if it does it doesn't have much of an effect on it)

[IcyTundra]

Misses the Bahamas to the north probably going to hit the Outer Banks on this run.

[SouthFLTropics]

Here comes the shortwave to save the day. I'm guessing a pass between Bermuda and the Outer Banks.

[Hurricaneman]

Takes a while for it to fully develop on this run but once it does there's no looking back and it's a major by the time it gets close to the Bahamas. So many possibilities with this thing but I believe this is the third run in a row now from the GFS that doesn't really show a TUTT (or if it does it doesn't have much of an effect on it)

I have a weird feeling the eastern seaboard will have to watch this, models seem to be over the last day or so trending west and the GFS is trending stronger so I wouldn’t say out to sea or dissipation yet

[ElectricStorm]

Takes a while for it to fully develop on this run but once it does there's no looking back and it's a major by the time it gets close to the Bahamas. So many possibilities with this thing but I believe this is the third run in a row now from the GFS that doesn't really show a TUTT (or if it does it doesn't have much of an effect on it)

I have a weird feeling the eastern seaboard will have to watch this, models seem to be over the last day or so trending west and the GFS is trending stronger so I wouldn’t say out to sea or dissipation yet

Yeah I don't really think this gets killed by the TUTT. If the TUTT actually materializes it may have an effect on it but I think 95L is gonna be somewhat of a problem down the line. Way to early to have any idea where it's going to be but if the GFS keeps pumping out runs like the last few, it's gonna get concerning considering it's prone to underestimate ridges

[ElectricStorm]

948mb peak, with the outer edge scraping the Outer Banks

HMON and HWRF are about to run, now watch them show something completely different

[SouthFLTropics]

Obviously the GFS is in fantasyland at this point but if that shortwave decides to have a negative tilt it could whip this around up into the New England states. Similar setup to Sandy.