Texas Fall 2021

[Texas Snowman]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 122059
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...NICHOLAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST...
...STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
THE TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to Freeport,
Texas.

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas from
Port Aransas to San Luis Pass, including Aransas Bay, San Antonio
Bay, and Matagorda Bay.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from Port
Aransas to Sargent.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
* Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Freeport Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

[Iceresistance]

This might prelude something in Late Sept,-Early October

[Brent]

Really hope we get some rain from Nicholas because otherwise the heat is endless

[Iceresistance]

Really hope we get some rain from Nicholas because otherwise the heat is endless

There is also a front trying to come in at the same time . . .

[ElectricStorm]

Been in Norman for almost a month...not a single storm yet

Light rain on my second day here and nothing since. Ridiculous

[Brent]

Really hope we get some rain from Nicholas because otherwise the heat is endless

There is also a front trying to come in at the same time . . .

Yeah but the rain chances are barely anything with that

We need a widespread soaking

[rwfromkansas]

I already know I won’t see a drop from yet another tropical system over the many years I’ve lived here. It will extend summer.

Hope folks don’t get too soaked on the coast though.

[snowballzzz]

GFS and CMC hinting at a cool down the middle of next week - 9/21/9/22. Bring it onnnnn.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Good luck down there, fellas. I'll be watching from Denver all night.

[Iceresistance]

End of the 12z Euro, would this be nice for Late-September?

[Brent]

End of the 12z Euro, would this be nice for Late-September?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/sfct.conus.png

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/sfct_anom.conus.png

If it would actually verify sure

[SoupBone]

End of the 12z Euro, would this be nice for Late-September?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/sfct.conus.png

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/sfct_anom.conus.png

I'm holding you to this in Houston. I'm sick of hurricane season.

[Cpv17]

End of the 12z Euro, would this be nice for Late-September?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/sfct.conus.png

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/sfct_anom.conus.png

I'm holding you to this in Houston. I'm sick of hurricane season.

Not me. I’d be perfectly fine with taking a direct hit as long as it’s not more than a cat 1. I love storms. I hate boring weather. Nicholas isn’t giving me anything here. Figured that would happen. Need some rain. Haven’t gotten but 2” in the past 6 or 7 weeks. Oh well.

[Ntxw]

Hopefully not too bad flooding in Southeast Texas. This could have been much worst than it is, thankfully.

Models lalaland as some have posted wants to send cool air down. But it is technically a 10+ day forecast so, it can easily disappear. There still isn't a driving mechanism to believe it except in model world. Obviously it will cool some by climo alone, but getting down to 80s/60s is about normal and nothing to write home about yet.

[Iceresistance]

This cold front might be 1 week out, but still . . .





KFOR is also liking this front as well . . . (Yes! Highs in the Upper 60s & Lows in the Upper 40s!)

[Brent]

I thought that super typhoon in the WPAC was gonna flip the pattern

Hopefully the GFS is right because a high in the 80s is not news this late

[gpsnowman]

Yeah 80s/60s will be normal soon if it isn't already. I'm ready for some dry air and dare I say open window evenings.

[SoupBone]

This cold front might be 1 week out, but still . . .

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_scus_34.png

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2ma_scus_34.png

KFOR is also liking this front as well . . . (Yes! Highs in the Upper 60s & Lows in the Upper 40s!)

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/7daye5f575e9a2a9ccd3.jpg

:sigh:

I need to move up to north Texas.

[Iceresistance]

Is the heat Island of DFW seemingly immune to Cold Fronts as well?

[Cpv17]

Is the heat Island of DFW seemingly immune to Cold Fronts as well?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2ma_scus_29.png

Unfortunately, that issue is probably only going to get worse with so much infrastructure.