LARanger wrote:At the risk of offending any hydrologists nearby, I've learned just from watching the Amite and Tangi like a damn hawk that the river forecasts are a bit dodgy in relation to unique weather events like 2016 or hurricanes. Don't get me wrong . . . sometimes they're spot on, despite being updated with far less frequency than, say, the NHC forecasts. Other times, even when something's been known to be coming for awhile, they lag or drastically change. In the case of this event, my guess would be that the Little Natalbany won't go much higher than today's forecast, if at all, but that they still got the timing wrong.
Well, as of 30 minutes ago, the Little Natalbany, which was forecast as of the writing above to crest at 14.5, 1.5 below flood stage, is actually at 15.1 and minor flooding at 16.5 is now forecast for 1am crest tonight. So, yes, that's the lag and dodginess I spoke of, but here we also see that my guesses are iffy at best.
Good luck, SG!
As for local observations here, I was surprised to find pretty decent ditch and road flooding at 4am, but it was receding then and, with the rain basically over, the water's dropped back to near normal. I'd guesstimate that this was nearly a match for Ida insofar as water accumulation, but I don't have any data on recorded rainfall amounts for either in this parish.