ATL: PETER - Models

[Blown Away]

What a mess.

Actually IMO, the longer 95L stays weak the closer to the CONUS it will get and doesn't take much space to blow up. Look what happens in the GOM.

[toad strangler]

Head first into PR heading due W. That's a el poofo heading.

[IcyTundra]

The TUTT is really giving 95L issues on this run.

[ElectricStorm]

Lol back to getting shredded on this run. Back and forth back and forth

[IcyTundra]

Degenerates into an open wave going due west across PR.

[Sciencerocks]

Based on the trend over the past 72 hours I think the gfs is seeing something. This could remain a very weak system and head more westward.

[IcyTundra]

Still a chance this stays weak enough that it goes south of the GA and gets its act together in the Carribean imo.

[aspen]

18z “Happy Hour” GFS is more of a sad hour run. Seems like if 95L is a little too far SW in the 5-7 day range, it’ll go over the islands as it weakens and changes from NW to WNW motion.

[toad strangler]

174 hours splits into two vorts. The N one looks to go N. Time to stop watching the 18z GFS

[ElectricStorm]

The GFS does seem to underestimate ridges. There could be a scenario where this becomes like Fred and Grace and has to navigate the GA's.

[Blown Away]

Still a chance this stays weak enough that it goes south of the GA and gets its act together in the Carribean imo.

At @186 hrs it's NE of PR, what's left of it.

[IcyTundra]

18z “Happy Hour” GFS is more of a sad hour run. Seems like if 95L is a little too far SW in the 5-7 day range, it’ll go over the islands as it weakens and changes from NW to WNW motion.

I think the GFS could be right about 95L staying weak for awhile and allowing it to get further west though I do think the GFS has a staying a bit too weak.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like redevelopment with the MLC at 192 north of Puerto Rico

[toad strangler]

The GFS does seem to underestimate ridges. There could be a scenario where this becomes like Fred and Grace and has to navigate the GA's.

To me it's just another swing. 0z into Bermuda. check that, 18z might do just that

[ElectricStorm]

The GFS does seem to underestimate ridges. There could be a scenario where this becomes like Fred and Grace and has to navigate the GA's.

To me it's just another swing. 0z into Bermuda.

Wouldn't be surprised honestly

[AlphaToOmega]

12Z CMC reminds me of a certain "A" storm from MCMXCII.

[aspen]

The GFS does seem to underestimate ridges. There could be a scenario where this becomes like Fred and Grace and has to navigate the GA's.

Fred and Grace were annoying enough, we don’t need a third. Also, the Euro tends to be overly strong with ridging, but it hasn’t been consistent with a GA track.

The 18z ICON seemingly abandons the idea of 96L stalling over the Gulf Stream.

[ElectricStorm]

All these GFS runs going back and forth I'm just waiting for the run that tries to get it sub 900

GFS seems good for 1 of those every year and I'm still waiting for it

[Hurricaneman]

Basically tries to redevelop this as it heads toward Bermuda this run

[toad strangler]

Yep,

NOTHING is certain. On either end of the spectrum.

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