ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

I'm thinking that if something does come out of this, it might start off tropical for a day or two at most then go to Sub-Tropical, that is if it doesn't just start off as Sub-Tropical.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[AlphaToOmega]

Has the NHC seen the ASCAT runs?

[Ubuntwo]

Convection finally firing near the surface circ. Guessing this is a TD by tomorrow's 5 AM.

[wx98]

Has the NHC seen the ASCAT runs?
https://i.postimg.cc/fLC7Zg8w/ascat-96-L-barb-202109160408.png

They’ve probably seen a lot more than you have

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at sat today and there is broad turning just SE of NC, but there is limited convection. I still don't think this develops. The shear is screaming just to the north of it. I think the remnants of Nicholas threw a wrench in the mix

[Teban54]

So in just a few days, 96L went from future Sam to future Rose, to future Peter, and now to future Odette.

And we don't even know if it will get a name after all.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricaneman]

So in just a few days, 96L went from future Sam to future Rose, to future Peter, and now to future Odette.

And we don't even know if it will get a name after all.

Might have to do with the -CCKW and mjo is unfavorable

[Hammy]

So in just a few days, 96L went from future Sam to future Rose, to future Peter, and now to future Odette.

And we don't even know if it will get a name after all.

I'm betting on no development at this point. Models are trending more and more towards whatever forms being completely frontal by then.

[Ubuntwo]

Current situation:


The surface low has gradually become better defined through the day. Modeling has downshear convection consolidating and eventually forming another eddy, which should become deeper than the one we are currently tracking.

Whatever comes of this will be quite sheared, borderline subtropical. Riding the boundary between classifiable and not.

Things become more interesting if the ridge builds back in (4-5 days out). A possible solution as a small tropical cyclone embedded within the broader extratropical low:



We shall see!

[wx98]

Current situation:
https://i.imgur.com/7wzbZuf.gif

The surface low has gradually become better defined through the day. Modeling has downshear convection consolidating and eventually forming another eddy, which should become deeper than the one we are currently tracking.

Whatever comes of this will be quite sheared, borderline subtropical. Riding the boundary between classifiable and not.

Things become more interesting if the ridge builds back in (4-5 days out). A possible solution as a small tropical cyclone embedded within the broader extratropical low:

https://i.imgur.com/xdu0WDs.png

We shall see!

Perfect Storm (would’ve been Henri) 1991? I think that was the same situation.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Current situation:
https://i.imgur.com/7wzbZuf.gif

The surface low has gradually become better defined through the day. Modeling has downshear convection consolidating and eventually forming another eddy, which should become deeper than the one we are currently tracking.

Whatever comes of this will be quite sheared, borderline subtropical. Riding the boundary between classifiable and not.

Things become more interesting if the ridge builds back in (4-5 days out). A possible solution as a small tropical cyclone embedded within the broader extratropical low:

https://i.imgur.com/xdu0WDs.png

We shall see!

Perfect Storm (would’ve been Henri) 1991? I think that was the same situation.

I believe that was Grace

[Ubuntwo]

Diurnal convection starting to pop now. The weak circulation has elongated into the convection. Lets see if it manages to pinch off a tighter circ and establish TC dynamics. As it stands right now, this is not too far from classification.

[Ubuntwo]

Surface rotation has continued elongating into the convection. In green is the currently tracked low. Optimal setup for reformations.

[aspen]

I might get a couple of stray showers from 96L’s outer bands today.

This is the best it has looked so far…which isn’t saying much lol.

[wx98]

Current situation:
https://i.imgur.com/7wzbZuf.gif

The surface low has gradually become better defined through the day. Modeling has downshear convection consolidating and eventually forming another eddy, which should become deeper than the one we are currently tracking.

Whatever comes of this will be quite sheared, borderline subtropical. Riding the boundary between classifiable and not.

Things become more interesting if the ridge builds back in (4-5 days out). A possible solution as a small tropical cyclone embedded within the broader extratropical low:

https://i.imgur.com/xdu0WDs.png

We shall see!

Perfect Storm (would’ve been Henri) 1991? I think that was the same situation.

I believe that was Grace

Grace was absorbed by the extratropical low. The unnamed hurricane formed within it.

[Category5Kaiju]

96L looks pretty impressive now, arguably the most it has ever has been. At this point a brief TS cannot be ruled out, imho

[Ubuntwo]

96L looks pretty impressive now, arguably the most it has ever has been. At this point a brief TS cannot be ruled out, imho

A brief TS is the general line of thinking, no?
It looks like a more concentrated low has formed under that continuously firing hot tower. Remains to be seen whether it’s a transient eddy. Recon will be telling.