ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Recent satellite images indicate that a new and better-defined
center of circulation has developed in association with a low
pressure area located about 250 miles east of Norfolk, Virginia.
In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity is becoming more
organized near this new center. If these development trends
continue, then a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to
form later today or tonight while the low moves toward the
northeast or east-northeast at 10 to 15 mph, away from the United
States Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. The low is expected to
transform into a non-tropical gale-force low Saturday or Saturday
night while it is located south of Atlantic Canada, and it is
likely to bring strong winds and heavy rains to portions of
Newfoundland by Sunday and Sunday night. This system is also
expected to bring high surf to portions of the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast U.S. coasts and Atlantic Canada through this weekend.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction
Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[zzh]

AL, 96, 2021091718, , BEST, 0, 366N, 719W, 35, 1010, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 0, 0, 60, 1017, 200, 70, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,

TS Odette coming soon

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

AL, 96, 2021091718, , BEST, 0, 366N, 719W, 35, 1010, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 0, 0, 60, 1017, 200, 70, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,

TS Odette coming soon

Doesn't this just say it's now an invest with TS force winds, since it still goes by AL96 and not AL15? Or am I mistaken?

[Ubuntwo]

On the cusp of TCG, four hour old pass.

[ElectricStorm]

About to take an L on my non-development take lol
Looks like we're about to have Odette

[zzh]

AL, 96, 2021091718, , BEST, 0, 366N, 719W, 35, 1010, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 0, 0, 60, 1017, 200, 70, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,

TS Odette coming soon

Doesn't this just say it's now an invest with TS force winds, since it still goes by AL96 and not AL15? Or am I mistaken?

Yes, it is still an invest, but since best track has it as a TS, it will be Odette very soon.

[Category5Kaiju]

About to take an L on my non-development take lol
Looks like we're about to have Odette

It's ok. The darn tropics just had to surprise many of us once again...

[ElectricStorm]

About to take an L on my non-development take lol
Looks like we're about to have Odette

It's ok. The darn tropics just had to surprise many of us once again...

I need to go back to being bullish with most of the invests like I usually am. Usually when I say it probably won't develop it does

[Category5Kaiju]

About to take an L on my non-development take lol
Looks like we're about to have Odette

It's ok. The darn tropics just had to surprise many of us once again...

I need to go back to being bullish with most of the invests like I usually am. Usually when I say it probably won't develop it does

Same here; throughout this forum there seems to be a nice spectrum of individuals who oftentimes are bears (Shell Mound and wxman57 to name a few I have seen frequently) and bulls (me, AlphatoOmega, you, etc.). Always a pleasure to be in Storm2k and see which side ends up being right for a particular AOI or storm.

[AlphaToOmega]

Looking at the best track data, it says Tropical Storm. I am ready to say that this has become Tropical Storm Odette.

AL, 96, 2021091718, , BEST, 0, 366N, 719W, 35, 1010, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 0, 0, 60, 1017, 200, 70, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,

[zzh]

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/season.asp?storm_season=2021

AL152021 - Tropical Storm ODETTE

TS Odette

[Nimbus]

Its not exactly extra tropical yet that will take a couple model cycles so while we are waiting for Peter..

[aspen]

Oh hello Odette.

[kevin]

The first cone for Odette:

[MarioProtVI]

Odette’s naming is highly questionable given that NHC already admitted it’s developing frontal boundaries which is a sign it is probably not a TC at all.

[Teban54]

From the NHC discussion:

With the re-formation of the center, the initial motion is
uncertain but is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/13 kt.
Odette is embedded between the subtropical ridge over the western
Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the U.S. Upper Midwest and
central Canada. The approach of this trough should cause Odette to
accelerate toward the northeast and then east-northeast during the
next few days. After about day 3, there is significant divergence
among the models. The GFS ejects the system northeastward and
stalls it over the north Atlantic, south of Greenland. The ECMWF,
UKMET, and Canadian models, however, stall the cyclone sooner and
have it meandering south of Newfoundland on days 4 and 5. For now,
the NHC track forecast shows Odette slowing down significantly on
those days (less than 5 kt on day 5) and is a blend of the TVCA and
HCCA consensus aids.

NHC not completely buying the idea of a Newfoundland stall yet, but is giving it some weight and has Odette move slowly east of Newfoundland. This will have downstream implications for 95L.

[MarioProtVI]

Whatever center they’re tracking is well exposed to the southwest of all the convection. No evidence to suggest a new one is under the convection. Not a TC in my book.

[aspen]

Hopefully baroclinic forcing and the Gulf Stream are both enough to get this looking like a proper TC and strengthen it to something a little more respectable than a 45 kt TS. 55-60 kt would be nice, and give the season a bit of an ACE/ICE boost.