ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

95L appears to have tilted forward. This has induced the feedback loop of convergence that will continue to tilt the axis of the wave until a closed low develops.

[cycloneye]

Trying to close but still elongated.

[Yellow Evan]

Trying to close but still elongated.

https://i.imgur.com/9jhSMdq.jpg

Needs westerlies badly.

[MGC]

95L starting to get that tumbleweed look plus convection has increased. Likely to close off soon and should become a TD this weekend.....MGC

[zzh]

Almost there.

[grapealcoholic]

Looks well stacked

[AutoPenalti]

MLC and LLC is slightly tilted but seems to be organizing pretty quick.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like it's on its way to become a TC. Probably will be a TD sometime tomorrow at this point.

[aspen]

HWRF did a good job forecasting an uptick in convection and organization around this time. It’ll likely be Peter sometime tomorrow, but who knows how strong it’ll get before the TUTT. I think a 65-75 kt hurricane is a reasonable upper limit if Peter is able to organize quickly tomorrow.

[grapealcoholic]

GFS and HWRF have been consistent on a tight core forming, but now 0z GFS keeps it broad. If this stays broad I don't see it intensifying much before the TUTT

[JRD]

95L has formed a closed low. Said closed low is of a shallow cold-cored nature. As such, combined with satellite and other data, it's not yet classifiable.

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT21 KNES 180559
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95L)

B. 18/0530Z

C. 14.9N

D. 49.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CIRCULAR CLOUD LINES AROUND THE LLCC THAT IS NEAR A LARGE
COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT EQUAL TO 2.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. THE
MET AND PT AGREE WITH THE DT BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT
LLCC POSITION IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[ouragans]

Invest 95L
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 18, 2021:

Location: 14.7°N 49.0°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 60 nm

[ouragans]

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located less than 1000
miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development
during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later today or tomorrow while the system moves toward the
west-northwest at about 15 mph. This system is expected to be near
the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Upper-level
winds are likely to become less conducive for development when the
system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[kevin]

A few days ago I thought this would be another failed MDR storm of 2021, but now it looks like we'll have Peter very soon.

[aspen]

Seems like the UL environment won’t be as conductive before the TUTT as originally modeled, as the HWRF has only been showing a weak to moderate TS for the last several runs. Hopefully this gets stronger to generate some more ACE and boost the seasonal numbers, since there’s an increasing probability that it’ll miss land. Looks like it probably won’t become the land-threatening monster that was feared last week.

[GCANE]

Multiple high-helicity hot towers between 16N to 18N and around 52W.

[kevin]

[GCANE]

UL Jet to the NW creating a shear-gradient axis for convection to fire.
Nice combination of divergence and ventilation - clearly seen on visible satellite

[GCANE]

GFS is now showing a ARWB developing in the Bahamas at the same time 95L enters the Bahamas.
Could have a dramatic impact on upcoming forecasted track and intensity.
Stay tuned.