ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Woofde]

There’s like 4 eddies rotating around a central gyre, all naked with convection severely displaced. Yeesh, are we sure this is even tropical/subtropical?

It's definitely a TS, just sheared and ugly

[wxman57]

Very sheared tropical cyclones often have a broad, open low center with multiple vortices rotating around. I think it will reach its highest intensity on Monday as the shear drops off, it detaches from the front, and it drifts south. I would classify it as a subtropical cyclone at that point - possibly tropical. Convection will likely build over the center as it drifts southward Mon/Tue.

[Sciencerocks]

[Ubuntwo]

Extratropical on the 18z best track.

AL, 15, 2021091818, , BEST, 0, 387N, 661W, 40, 1001, EX, 34, NEQ, 180, 150, 180, 120, 1016, 300, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ODETTE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,

[aspen]

Extratropical on the 18z best track.

AL, 15, 2021091818, , BEST, 0, 387N, 661W, 40, 1001, EX, 34, NEQ, 180, 150, 180, 120, 1016, 300, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ODETTE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,

Good riddance.

[zhukm29]

I don't doubt that Odette was a TC for a brief period of its life, but post analysis will probably move up extratropical transition a bit earlier in time. There are a few models that are hinting that Odette could redevelop if it shifts southward in the middle of next week, so that's something to keep an eye out on. The Atlantic has produced several storms that meandered through the subtropics during this time of year, so it's not too farfetched a possibility.

[wxman57]

Extratropical on the 18z best track.

AL, 15, 2021091818, , BEST, 0, 387N, 661W, 40, 1001, EX, 34, NEQ, 180, 150, 180, 120, 1016, 300, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ODETTE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,

Good riddance.

Don't be so sure. I think it will peak on Monday/Tuesday, and NHC might resume advisories as a subtropical storm. Could even become tropical.

[Hammy]

Kind of surprising they're not mentioning this in the outlooks given there's trending model support for redevelopment.

[wxman57]

Odette is the best-looking system in the basin today.

[Ubuntwo]

Papin explicitly mentions redevelopment. Unsure why it's not on the TWO?
 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1439590564731576327

[tolakram]

saved loop

[AlphaToOmega]

A gale force non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
Odette, is located a few hundred miles south of Newfoundland. This
system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics
by the middle of this week as it moves slowly eastward and then
southeastward over warmer waters across the north-central Atlantic
Ocean. Additional information on this system, including storm
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[AlphaToOmega]

2. A storm-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants
of Odette, is located a few hundred miles southeast of
Newfoundland. This low could acquire some subtropical
characteristics by the middle of this week as it moves slowly
southeastward over warmer waters across the north-central Atlantic
Ocean before moving northward over cooler waters over the weekend.
Additional information on this system, including storm warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Extratropical94]

A storm-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
Odette, is located about 700 miles west-northwest of the westernmost
Azores. This low could acquire some subtropical characteristics over
marginally warm waters during the next few days while it executes a
small cyclonic loop over the north-central Atlantic Ocean. However,
by the end of the week, this system is expected to encounter more
hostile environmental conditions. Additional information on this
system, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Teban54]

Poor ex-Odette isn't getting any attention, but:

2. A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
Odette, is located more than 500 miles west-northwest of the
westernmost Azores. This low is beginning to develop more
concentrated shower activity and could become a subtropical or
tropical cyclone as it moves slowly across marginally warm waters
over the north-central Atlantic Ocean during the next several days.
However, by the weekend, this system is expected to move south into
an environment of strong upper-level winds. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[AnnularCane]

Hopefully she'll get some attention if she comes back because she'll deserve it.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
Odette, is located about 600 miles west-northwest of the westernmost
Azores. Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little near the
low, and it could become a subtropical or tropical cyclone while it
moves generally southward over marginally warmer waters during the
next couple of days. Strong upper-level winds are expected to
develop over the system this weekend, which should limit its
development. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

&&

[Teban54]

Hope this redevelops to settle thr doubts about whether it should have been named.