ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 16, 2021091906, , BEST, 0, 176N, 529W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PETER, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,

[Hammy]

Another short-lived name checked off the list.

[kevin]

Another short-lived name checked off the list.

I don't think this one will be that short lived right? NHC has it as a TC until at least the end of its advsiory next Friday and most Euro ensemble members at least keep it alive until next week Monday (so 8 days from now). Still, I think I get what you mean though, with the exception of Larry we haven't really had a big monster peak season MDR storm or anything like that. Off-topic, but there is a striking similarity between 2020 and 2021 in terms of there 'only' being 2 massive storms during peak season (August & September). In 2020 it was Laura (Louisiana monster) and Teddy (MDR tracker) and this year it's Ida (Louisiana monster) and Larry (MDR tracker). I know I'm simplifying here since we also had Grace this year and Paulette/Sally last year, but still it feels very similar. Hopefully that similarity won't continue in October.

[aspen]

Peter’s only opportunity to become something substantial will be late this week into the weekend as it’s turning north, where it could be enhanced by baroclinic processes and UL winds will be in the same direction as its motion. That’s assuming it survives, however.

This will still be one of the worst model busts in years. Peter will join Kammuri and Nisarga as storms forecast by the Euro to be much stronger and much bigger ACE-makers than they later turned out to be.

[GCANE]

Recon in the air

[aspen]

Naked swirl alert at approximately 17.5N/55.7W

[GCANE]

Looks like its under a strong UL jet.
Really won't clear out until it gets north of PR

[Nimbus]

Naked swirl alert at approximately 17.5N/55.7W

The shear is at its max and will be diminishing as the ULL just to the west weakens.
If that upper air shear persisted for more than about a day the naked swirl might lose its pressure gradient but there will likely be another burst of convection later this morning.

[aspen]

Recon is finding 40 kt surface winds despite the LLC being massively displaced from the convection, although the pressure is barely falling. Peter needs to generate some thunderstorms near the LLC or else it won’t survive the next 48 hours, and we’ve already had enough systems this year that didn’t survive past 2 days.

[xironman]

Not close to where it supposed to be.

[tolakram]

Good grief,

[tolakram]

saved loop

[aspen]

You know storms have been doing poorly when I have to use this meme template twice in just 3 weeks.

[TallyTracker]

It feels like the storm just went, “Okay got the name! Now I can stop trying to hold convection!” lol

[wwizard]

Recon is finding 40 kt surface winds despite the LLC being massively displaced from the convection, although the pressure is barely falling. Peter needs to generate some thunderstorms near the LLC or else it won’t survive the next 48 hours, and we’ve already had enough systems this year that didn’t survive past 2 days.

We’ve already had enough that didn’t last past 2 days? Nothing wrong with all of them being like that.

[wxman57]

So far, the plane has found a sharp wave axis. Tropical waves can easily have 35kt winds in squalls. There's another swirl of low clouds at 34.6N/34.3W that hasn't been named yet.

[dexterlabio]

Peter’s only opportunity to become something substantial will be late this week into the weekend as it’s turning north, where it could be enhanced by baroclinic processes and UL winds will be in the same direction as its motion. That’s assuming it survives, however.

This will still be one of the worst model busts in years. Peter will join Kammuri and Nisarga as storms forecast by the Euro to be much stronger and much bigger ACE-makers than they later turned out to be.

Hey at least Kammuri made it to Cat4 this one we are not so sure if it can make at least a minimal hurricane. But yeah when this was a TW it was already being touted as the big CV hurricane of 2021. Sometimes models do like to troll, this happens a lot even in WPAC and EPAC.

[abajan]

Not close to where it supposed to be.

https://i.imgur.com/NNSD607.jpg

They issued a special advisory at 9 AM to correct the position.

[Sciencerocks]

[Ubuntwo]

 https://twitter.com/DBrownie23/status/1439631919952584714