aspen wrote:Teban54 wrote:Wild hypothesis: The amount of season cancel posts correlates with current activity, not potential activity.
There was a brief lull in season cancelling yesterday when 95L and 97L looked impressive for invests. Then they returned immediately today when they became naked swirls.
On a more serious note, this has been well-modeled in advance. We know a suppressed phase was bound to happen in mid-September, and we also know they will become more favorable in one or two weeks. I would reserve all 2013 calls until at least end of October.
Are we sure conditions will become more favorable in that short of a time frame? I thought the suppressed MJO phase was supposed to peak at the end of September.
The ECMWF shows a favorable CCKW moving across the Atlantic in about a week from now, which should make conditions more favorable by then.