ATL: ROSE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

We're only 12 Days further than 2020's TD 17 (September 7th) . . .

[ElectricStorm]

We're only 12 Days further than 2020's TD 17 (September 7th) . . .

That's a huge difference lol

[Iceresistance]

We're only 12 Days further than 2020's TD 17 (September 7th) . . .

That's a huge difference lol

That might change since 2020 had a lull from the 2nd-3rd week of September to the First Week of October . . . And this year, there might be no sign of that . . . (Of course I have a chance of speaking too soon, LOL)

[Category5Kaiju]

We're only 12 Days further than 2020's TD 17 (September 7th) . . .

That's a huge difference lol

But we're only 1 day away from 2005's R storm.

[Sciencerocks]

[ConvergenceZone]

where is the model thread on this? I can't seem to find it?

[SconnieCane]

Another 40kt peak forecast, yay.

"Peak season"...guess we will wait and see on Oct. and Nov. again.

[AlphaToOmega]

Tropical Storm Rose has formed.

AL, 17, 2021091918, , BEST, 0, 138N, 294W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1012, 130, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ROSE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,

[ConvergenceZone]

where is the model thread on this? I can't seem to find it?

Oops nevermind, probably no need in having a model thread on a disturbance that's forecasted to not do much anyway,,,,,,,,,,,,, my bad....

[kevin]

Tropical Storm Rose has formed.

AL, 17, 2021091918, , BEST, 0, 138N, 294W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1012, 130, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ROSE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,

The Atlantic the last 2 days:

[ElectricStorm]

I think this one could overperform if it gets going pretty quickly. NHC mentioned in the disco that their forecast might be conservative, and this will have a window of opportunity to do something before it hits the unfavorable conditions/cool water.

[ChrisH-UK]

TD-17 is looking healthy tucked under the trough. It has a large rotation at the lower levels however it hasn't got the upper levels rotating yet.

GOES-16 CIRA Proxy Visible + CO2 longwave IR Source - https://col.st/TAk57

[Sciencerocks]

[Extratropical94]

Forecast peak raised to 45 kts

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.9N 33.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 34.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

[IcyTundra]

First time the name Rose has ever been used. The 2003 season only got to Peter.

[aspen]

The NHC is now saying that atmospheric moisture will be favorable enough. In previous advisories, they said that dry air would help keep Rose in check before it hits the wall of shear on Tuesday.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think we might get a mid grade tropical storm out of Rose before it gets ripped apart by shear..... Still impressive to be all the way up to the R storm....

[Teban54]

I think we might get a mid grade tropical storm out of Rose before it gets ripped apart by shear..... Still impressive to be all the way up to the R storm....

I must say, watching the P and R storm in the MDR largely struggling is giving me Paulette/Rene vibes.

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Rose is looking decent tonight. The center is under the convection and it's been firing cold convection for a while now. Of course we aren't ever going to know for sure what's going on under there without recon but if this continues Rose may try to make a run at an upper TS.