ATL: SAM - Models

[Nancy Smar]

Only Model runs here.

[aspen]

06z GFS: starts to recurve at 40-45W in 4-5 days, but gets blocked and finds itself in a similar location as Peter in the long range

00z Euro: stays around 9-12N for 5 days or so and is by far the furthest SW track, getting close to the Leeward Islands

The 00z CMC and 06z ICON attempt a recurve earlier than the GFS.

06z HWRF has this become TS Sam on Wednesday or Thursday at just 7.5N-8.5N.

[tolakram]

0Z Euro run, so we can look back and laugh. I'm pessimistic, I think right now the chances of this getting strong are really unknown.

[tolakram]

6Z GFS

[SconnieCane]

6Z GFS
https://i.imgur.com/OkESEYB.gif

Verbatim last frame of the GFS run it looks to me like the ridge fills back in and would force it to make a left turn again.

[aspen]

HMON dips this even further south than the HWRF/GEFS/EPS and has it become a Category 3 by late Friday or early Saturday. Both hurricane models show a TS in 48-60 hours.

Yeah 98L does look rather good right now, but I doubt genesis will be that fast. Also, Peter. Nothing else needs to be said lol

[Hypercane_Kyle]

We'll see -- after Rose & Peter I have my doubts about this becoming anything of note.

[Teban54]

We'll see -- after Rose & Peter I have my doubts about this becoming anything of note.

Rose was actually pretty well forecast. Most models had it forming far east and did not make it very strong as it recurves. Unfortunately, its track gives not enough time to intensify before cooler SSTs.

[LarryWx]

The 6Z EPS once again has a pretty strong signal for intensification. However, it fortunately also has the same recurve setup as far as the CONUS is concerned with no WAR and a nice E US trough moving in by this weekend. The NE Caribbean may need to keep an eye on it though. And of course Bermuda.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Lets not forget the GFS has a bias of wanting to recurve everything on the model runs just after genesis in the MDR. I expect it will correct west

[AutoPenalti]

Lets not forget the GFS has a bias of wanting to recurve everything on the model runs just after genesis in the MDR. I expect it will correct west

GFS has been pretty spot on in terms of track for MDR systems this year. I think the Euro will likely shift East considering the latest EPS agrees.

[Blinhart]

Anyone have the super long range models, where it goes all the way to the middle of October, so we can see the POSSIBILITY of what COULD HAPPEN???

[ScottNAtlanta]

Lets not forget the GFS has a bias of wanting to recurve everything on the model runs just after genesis in the MDR. I expect it will correct west

GFS has been pretty spot on in terms of track for MDR systems this year. I think the Euro will likely shift East considering the latest EPS agrees.

GFS tries to take it out and gets blocked then takes it west, then takes it out with a system moving into Atlantic Canada. That far out cant really be believed (324 hours). The first weakness is felt at 192 hours. That is still a long way out and depends on a very complex and high number of conditions to be met. Bottom line is it is still too early to make much of a determination past 72 hrs.

[LarryWx]

12Z ICON, like the 0Z, recurves this pretty sharply near 50W.

[AutoPenalti]

12Z ICON, like the 0Z, recurves this pretty sharply near 50W.

This slows down which likely indicates the ridge rebuilding overhead.

[Teban54]

12Z ICON, like the 0Z, recurves this pretty sharply near 50W.

This slows down which likely indicates the ridge rebuilding overhead.

Peter is still active at the end of 12z ICON though. Doubt the ridge can rebuild with that particular setup (though keep in mind it's just one run from a less reliable model).

12z ICON also doesn't get 98L nearly as strong as 0z in the long term. I wonder if that's another result of 12z keeps Peter intact for so long - no other models currently show this.

[ElectricStorm]

Struggling to intensify so far on the 12z GFS. Odette gets way far south and it might be throwing some shear on 98L on this run

[AutoPenalti]

GFS has 98L further E or just slower in movement and intensity.

[ElectricStorm]

Now it's intensifying. Turning back W too

[AutoPenalti]

Now it's intensifying. Turning back W too

Looks temporary.