ATL: SAM - Models

[ElectricStorm]

Now it's intensifying. Turning back W too

Looks temporary.

https://i.imgur.com/RuDYC5W.png

Yeah there's no way it's getting to the CONUS

[aspen]

Now it's intensifying. Turning back W too

Looks temporary.

https://i.imgur.com/RuDYC5W.png

Yeah there's no way it's getting to the CONUS

Bermuda, on the other hand, could get smacked by this. The GFS really seems to hate Bermuda this year.

[SFLcane]

Now it's intensifying. Turning back W too

Looks temporary.

https://i.imgur.com/RuDYC5W.png

This has -0 in my opinion to affect the conus. Folks it’s nearly oct there and trofs will be in full swing trying to turn it. I am pretty certain it Will recurve but Bermuda might be in the crosshairs and might need to watch closely.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS is giving the CONUS a non-zero threat from 98L in the long-range . . .

[Kohlecane]

That's a pretty big difference in the UL set up from 6Z not that the trough moving through the mid ATL would take it but something to keep an eye on. I think we can all agree on speed and timing when it comes to 98L

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1439986530408407041

[ElectricStorm]

Now it's intensifying. Turning back W too

Looks temporary.

https://i.imgur.com/RuDYC5W.png

Yeah there's no way it's getting to the CONUS

Hold up now it's getting a lot closer than it looked like it would

[Kohlecane]

Well to see a W trend get 25N/70W almost is pretty uneasy feeling regardless of the typical fall set-up a tad more W and even if it finds that weakness OBX could be at play, again 300+ out, I'd rather see a trend W this far out then <200

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like a fish storm on the GFS, but it's REALLY close for discomfort to the CONUS.

[aspen]

The GFS better be wrong about a ridge that strong, or else we might be watching a major get way too close to the CONUS for comfort. I don’t even know how such a powerful ridge could form this late in the year.

The progressive fall pattern with varying ridges and openings will just make the model runs and forecast for 98L even more complicated. Anything from a 50W recurve to a CONUS landfall is possible at this early stage…assuming it develops when the modes say it will.

[LarryWx]

Looks temporary.

https://i.imgur.com/RuDYC5W.png

Yeah there's no way it's getting to the CONUS

Hold up now it's getting a lot closer than it looked like it would

Yep, indeed, at least a scare to the NE US on this run. But this is a major outlier as of now and the GFS is hardly reliable. Let’s see what the GEFS has.

[Category5Kaiju]

Interestingly, the GFS has this thing at a decent hurricane strength near the top of Hebert Box 1. Just an observation I made of course

[skyline385]

Yeah there's no way it's getting to the CONUS

Hold up now it's getting a lot closer than it looked like it would

Yep, indeed, at least a scare to the NE US on this run. But this is a major outlier as of now and the GFS is hardly reliable. Let’s see what the GEFS has.

0Z EURO had lots of ensemble members through the leeward islands and PR or very close to them. I thought the EURO run last night was an anomaly but the GFS shifting westwards as well is a concern...

[AutoPenalti]

Yup, huge shift W in the long range.

[tolakram]

Interesting interaction with a cold front and a low moving up it (I think). I don't think this is how things will play out, but interesting.

[Teban54]

The GFS better be wrong about a ridge that strong, or else we might be watching a major get way too close to the CONUS for comfort. I don’t even know how such a powerful ridge could form this late in the year.

The progressive fall pattern with varying ridges and openings will just make the model runs and forecast for 98L even more complicated. Anything from a 50W recurve to a CONUS landfall is possible at this early stage…assuming it develops when the modes say it will.

Isn't the GFS traditionally known for underestimating ridges (and thus being the easternmost outlier)? Weird how it loves showing strong ridges this year.

[AutoPenalti]

This was 0z EURO for reference.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1439993184579375105

[aspen]

The HMON is on crack. It sends 98L all the way down to 7N and has rapid genesis within 48 hours, likely due to getting within the strip of 29C SSTs below 10N. 98L doesn’t get back to 10N until Thursday night around 35-37W, and by that time, it has already become a hurricane.

Is it even possible for an Atlantic TC to close off that far south? I think it would be too buried in the ITCZ to develop a closed circulation.

[tolakram]

12z euro a bit stronger sooner.

[Blown Away]

NE Caribbean could be in play, but I’d be surprised if it ever makes it farther W than @73W.