ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 98, 2021092006, , BEST, 0, 95N, 193W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038, SPAWNINVEST, al722021 to al982021,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[cycloneye]

This system should get a lot of ACE if it does what the models are showing and this thread should be on the top 10 of S2K if it moves close to land areas. Thread with list

[aspen]

I’ve been skeptical about 98L after the bust that was Peter, but the model support for a long-tracker is stronger with this wave than it ever was with 95L — all models show at least a Cat 1 hurricane instead of just the Euro. The wave will remain at quite a lot latitude until Friday, so it could end up getting decently far west and might be a concern for the Leeward Islands.

[Category5Kaiju]

I’ve been skeptical about 98L after the bust that was Peter, but the model support for a long-tracker is stronger with this wave than it ever was with 95L — all models show at least a Cat 1 hurricane instead of just the Euro. The wave will remain at quite a lot latitude until Friday, so it could end up getting decently far west and might be a concern for the Leeward Islands.

Yeah this is looking quite interesting (not in a good way). While at this point a Jose like situation with a dangerous brush but ultimately core missing land could easily happen, who knows if it gets west far enough that a Luis like case occurs instead? Either way, it looks like 2021 is trying to avenge its lackluster early September in the form of 98L/Sam. Ahhhh!

[Kohlecane]

Doesn't look that bad this morning, interesting how close this is to Rose.

[Stormybajan]

I'm thinking 98L mimic's Peter's track. Wouldnt surprise me if the Euro trended a bit weaker and more northeast than it is right now

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic
several hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands
is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms that are showing
some signs of organization. Upper-level winds are expected to
become more conducive for further development by midweek, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by Friday while the system
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

12z Best track:

AL, 98, 2021092012, , BEST, 0, 95N, 210W, 25, 1009, DB

[Teban54]

The last few frames almost look like an LLC is forming.

[cycloneye]

Very interesting twit by Papín that ilustrates how this invest can take advantage in MDR.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1439946339496996870

[AutoPenalti]

Very interesting twit by Papín that ilustrates how this invest can take advantage in MDR.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1439946339496996870

Good thing late in the season troughs are setting up shop to prevent any TC's from getting close to the US. I can't say the same for Bermuda though.

[ElectricStorm]

Models are bullish, and there doesn't appear to be a TUTT to rip it apart like Peter, at least for now. This should be fun.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Very interesting twit by Papín that ilustrates how this invest can take advantage in MDR.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1439946339496996870

Good thing late in the season troughs are setting up shop to prevent any TC's from getting close to the US. I can't say the same for Bermuda though.

It's all about timing though if the pattern is progressive. Everything seems to be blocked up right now.
It looks like the trough is setting up in the Great Lakes. That could lead to an EC hit pattern.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The model track reminds me of Florence. From the Gfs at least. 98L also right now looks really good. However that westerly movement in the southern portion of the system is likely aided by the ITCZ.

[Blinhart]

The model track reminds me of Florence. From the Gfs at least. 98L also right now looks really good. However that westerly movement in the southern portion of the system is likely aided by the ITCZ. https://i.imgur.com/4q3nFQj.gif

Looks like a slow moving system right now, anyone have the current forward speed of it?

[cycloneye]

The model track reminds me of Florence. From the Gfs at least. 98L also right now looks really good. However that westerly movement in the southern portion of the system is likely aided by the ITCZ. https://i.imgur.com/4q3nFQj.gif

Looks like a slow moving system right now, anyone have the current forward speed of it?

From the 12z SHIPS data.

INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15

[Blinhart]

The model track reminds me of Florence. From the Gfs at least. 98L also right now looks really good. However that westerly movement in the southern portion of the system is likely aided by the ITCZ. https://i.imgur.com/4q3nFQj.gif

Looks like a slow moving system right now, anyone have the current forward speed of it?

From the 12z SHIPS data.

INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15

Thanks, missed that

[Sciencerocks]

[ouragans]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands are
still showing some signs of organization, although there does not
appear to be a surface circulation at this time. Upper-level
winds, however, are expected to become conducive for further
development by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by Thursday or Friday while the system moves westward at 10 to 15
mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT24 KNES 201158
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98L)

B. 20/1130Z

C. 9.6N

D. 21.3W

E. FIVE/MET-11

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS >2/10 BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF 1.0. THERE IS
ROBUST CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY OCCURRING WHILE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD LEVEL ROTATION ON VIS AND EIR IMAGERY. THE 24 HR TREND IS
DEVELOPING. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL